北京北郊冬季大风过程湍流通量演变特征的分析研究

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所325 m气象观测塔1993年12月～1994年1月大气边界层实验资料, 计算分析了大风过境过程中47 m和120 m高度湍流通量演变特征及其影响因子, 以及与风速、 稳定度等参数的关系。结果表明: 大风过程对近地面层的物质能量输送有着重要影响, 大风之前出现短时间动量上传和热量下传; 大风过程中的湍流通量数值明显高于过境后, 水平方向湍流通量数值和能量增加幅度大于垂直方向; 当风速大于临界值5 m/s时, 湍流通量与风速、 湍流动能的相关迅速增大; 湍流谱特征表现为湍流能量的低频部分增加、 湍流谱曲线变宽; 大风能强烈影响近地面层的能量收支。     

Roll Vortices in the Boundary Layer Caused by a Concave Wind Profile: A Theoretical Study

The present study solves a two-layer atmospheric wave equation model with a lower atmosphere concave wind profile and cold-air outbreak over sea, while simultaneously proving that such a wind shear may cause neutral boundary layer roll vortices in the presence of disturbing sources upstream. Without thermal effects, the wind shear-induced waves have band structures at the top of the boundary layer that are similar to cloud street patterns observed over sea. This study proves that dynamic and thermal effects can act independently to initiate the roll vortices in the lower atmosphere. At the same time, a quantitative comparison shows that dynamic effects play a large role in the formation of roll vortices in the initial stage of cold-air outbreak and will be surpassed by thermal effects soon after surface heating commences.     

水深对软刚臂单点系泊FPSO动力响应的影响

系泊系统的定位能力是浅水油田作业的软刚臂式单点系泊FPSO安全作业的重要保障,为研究不同水深/吃水比下单点系泊系统的受力性能,针对一艘16万吨级软刚臂单点系泊FPSO,在线性三维势流理论的基础上,基于多体动力学方法,建立FPSO-系泊腿-软刚臂的耦合模型,采用Newman近似法和Pinkster近似法分析了FPSO所受二阶波浪力,在时域内计算了不同水深/吃水比对系泊系统动力响应性能的影响。结果表明,随着水深/吃水比的增加,Newman近似法计算得到二阶波浪力先增大后减小,引起单点系泊系统载荷先增大后减小;而Pinkster近似法计算得到的二阶波浪力逐渐减下,引起单点载荷逐渐减下。在浅水条件下,Pinkster近似法具有较好的适用性,Newman近似法严重低估了FPSO所受的二阶波浪力;在深水条件下,Newman近似法能满足工程计算的要求;适用两种方法的临界水深/吃水比为1.64。     

顾及大气角动量的Prophet-VAR日长变化预报方法

针对日长变化参数序列中蕴含的复杂非线性特征会严重影响其预报精度的问题,同时为探讨引入大气角动量序列是否有助于提升预报精度,提出一种Prophet拟合外推联合向量自回归(vector autoregression,VAR)残差补偿的组合模型用于日长预报.选用2008～2020年的日长变化参数序列进行实验,同时设计不顾及大...     

雷暴大风过程中对流层中低层动量通量和动能通量输送特征研究

2014年5月31日北京发生一次雷暴大风过程。以雷达资料同化结果为初始场,对此次过程进行高分辨率数值模拟。采用非静力平衡和非地转平衡的经向动量方程和质量权重动能方程,利用模拟资料,对雷暴大风过程中经向动量和质量权重动能进行收支分析,以此来研究雷暴过程中对流层中低层动量通量和动能通量输送特征,讨论地面大风的可能成因。分析结果表明,在对流层中低层,经向动量通量散度是影响经向动量局地变化的主要强迫项。雷暴系统后部的入流把中低层的经向动量倾斜向下输送,系统前部对流云区中低层的下沉气流也向下输送经向动量。这两支下传动量通量先后与近地面经向动量的水平通量汇合,向系统前沿输送经向动量。在北京西北部地形阻挡作用下,经向动量通量在系统前端近地面辐合,促进那里的经向动量局地增长,有利于增强那里的南风。质量动能收支的特征与经向动量收支类似,在近地面层质量动能的局地变化主要是由质量动能通量散度引起的。系统后部入流把中层质量动能向下传输到近地面层,然后与近地面质量动能的水平通量汇合,向系统前沿输送质量动能。相对来说,近地面层经向动量和质量动能的水平通量比下传通量更重要,这主要与低层较强的东南急流有关。     

寒潮过程中风浪对黄海海气热量通量和动量通量影响研究

采用2009—2013年CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)大气和海洋再分析资料对黄海海气间热量通量和动量通量的特征进行统计分析,并通过FVCOMSWAVE浪流耦合模式对典型寒潮过程中风浪的影响效果进行模拟研究与对比分析。统计结果显示,通量受海表大风、海气温差及海洋环流等因子影响,秋冬季节强烈,春夏季节相对较弱,在寒潮活跃的冷季该海域的海流处于弱流期,风浪对海面通量的作用明显增强。海温特征也显示冷季的不稳定性显著强于暖季,因此该海域冷季具有更强的海气热量通量。沿岸站点的比较显示,南部吕泗站面向更开阔的东海海域,其平均波高高出北部20%左右。这与沿海南部通量强于北部特征对应。数值模拟显示,在寒潮过程中,海气界面热量通量和动量通量输送比多年月平均状态显著增强,动量通量增大1~5倍,热量通量增大1~6倍。寒潮过程入海冷锋走向、强度、移动方向显著影响海面热量通量和动量通量大值区的分布。偏北路寒潮纬向型冷锋入海,其强度东部大于西部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海东北部,而偏西路寒潮经向型冷锋入海,其强度南部大于北部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海南部。同时偏北路径寒潮强度大于偏西路径,海气动量通量响应较偏西路径强约25%,热量通量强约50%。耦合风浪作用的模拟显示,海气间热量通量和动量通量明显增大,对不同强度风浪,浪高增加1.5倍,动量通量最大值增大约2倍,热量通量增大10~160 W/m2;浪高减弱至0.5倍,动量通量最大值则减弱约40%,热量通量减小10~55 W/m2。冷锋及其驱动的风浪强烈影响区域海气通量时空特征。     

顶点Pk覆盖问题的研究综述

顶点覆盖问题是经典的NP完全问题,在排序、计算机网络等现实生活中有许多的应用.近几年来,许多研究者开始探究它的推广形式——顶点P_k覆盖（VCP_k）问题,即寻找一个顶点子集,从拓扑结构图中删除后使得剩下的顶点导出的子图不包含P_k路,其中P_k是指包含k个顶点的路.本文简单介绍了VCP_k问题的应用背景,归纳了它在近似算法、精确算法、参数化算法3个方面的主要研究进展,并分析了一些主要的方法和技巧.在此基础上,对VCP_k问题及其相关问题的研究前景进行了展望.     

Including Geological Uncertainty and Economic Analysis in a Rapid Simulation of Hydrocarbon Exploration

Manly's approximation method has been applied to hydrocarbon discovery process modeling in order to approximate the expected value and the standard deviation of the total discovery volume for a given exploratory effort. A major benefit of this method is that it allows the model to run much faster than the regular simulation method, yet it gives accurate results. This paper extends the benefit of Manly's approach by allowing the approximation method to incorporate the uncertainties in geological parameters that drive Manly's approximation, in order to provide an approximation of the complete distribution of total discovery volume that can result from exploration activity. In addition, it allows the model to include economic parameters into an evaluation of the economic worth of the results of exploration activity, producing distributions of net present value within a short period of time. The offshore Nova Scotia Shelf Basin is selected for demonstrating the methodology.     

活动双星AR Lac的周期研究

用Ｋａｌｉｍｅｒｉｓ等人提出的分析周期新方法对ＲＳＣＶｎ型双星系统ＡＲＬａｃ的ＯＣ曲线进行分析,结果表明这颗食双星的轨道周期在长期减小的同时也含有周期为４７年、振幅为１．５６×１０－５天的周期性变化．对引起轨道周期变化（非周期性变化和周期性变化）的各种物理机制进行了分析研究,并求出了它们的关键性物理参量．研究表明该系统轨道周期的变化可能是由于次子星周期性的磁场活动和由磁滞引起的角动量损失引起     

An analysis of horizontal dispersion due to the drift current with an Ekman layer

An analytical method for describing horizontal matter dispersion in shear currents is presented using a tensor expression from the point of view that matter dispersion due to the shear effect should be one of the principal mixing dilution processes. Although the behavior of horizontal dispersion is considerably more complicated than common longitudinal dispersion, the present study elucidates the vertical structure of dispersion and the dispersing process from the initial to the stationary stage, besides the usual depth-averaged dispersion coefficient at the stationary stage. As one of the typical applications of horizontal dispersion, dispersion due to the pure drift current with an Ekman layer is examined theoretically using the present method. This examination reveals that the displacement of the centroid and the major axis of dispersion are twisted in the vertical direction more than the direction of the current vector forming the Ekman spiral; that the variance increases in proportion to the third power of the elapsed time; and that the dispersion coefficient at the stationary stage remains constant, independent of the depth normalized by an Ekman layer thickness. Such dependence of the dispersion coefficient in the steady current is shown to be different from that in the oscillatory current, which is inversely proportional to the depth normalized by a Stokes layer thickness. This is considered to be induced by the difference of the vertical profiles of the first order moment in both currents, that is, the shear region of the first order moment is restricted around the floor by the alternation of the current shear in the oscillatory current while it is diffused in the whole depth in the steady current.