工程抗震设防标准的效益分析

合理的工程抗震设入标准应该具有最佳的经济效益和社会效益。为此，本文提出了在确保地震造成的人员伤亡不超过社会可接受水平这一约束条件下，寻求经济效益最佳的设防标准的优化决策模型和方法，并采用这种效益分析方法对若干典型大中城市的设防标准进行了初步分析。     

基于改进型逆推法和模糊评价法的暴雨服务效益评估

对2010—2022年江西省70次暴雨过程开展了气象服务效益评估,在充分考虑政府组织决策水平、部门联防联动、公众参与及气象服务水平等影响的情况下,加入赋权系数,结合隶属度函数构建重要因子矩阵,基于改进的逆推法和模糊综合评价法建立了江西省暴雨灾害气象服务效益评估模型,实现了江西省暴雨灾害气象服务效益定量化评估。结果表明,2010—2022年江西省暴雨灾害直接经济损失和气象服务效益均有逐渐增长的趋势,不可避免损失因子为0.17—0.50,气象服务效益占经济总损失的25%—45%。暴雨灾害直接经济损失和气象服务效益相关性较高,表明气象服务在防灾减灾工作中起重要作用。     

地震经济损失预测和人员伤亡预测

以山西G市为例，通过对该市建筑物造价、建筑物室内财产、各乡镇经济收入、县乡企业经济等情况进行的调查，对该市进行了直接和间接经济损失预测，从而给出总经济损失预测结果。在建筑物震害预测的基础上，给出不同破坏烈度下预测区的死亡人数、无家可归人数的预测结果，指出预测未来地震灾害的经济损失和人员伤亡是把握当今社会经济布局和未来灾害损失程度、科学制定防震减灾对策的重要环节之一。     

Socio-economic constraints of groundwater in Capital La Rioja, Argentina

Historically, the arid conditions of La Rioja, Argentina have been the main controlling factor in its development. The shortage of surface water, which is fully used, makes groundwater a potential source for development. The government encouraged investment in early 1979, resulting in a 20-fold increase of groundwater extraction by 1998 (0.076–1.450 m³/s, respectively) to cover related needs of agriculture, industry and population growth. This extraction created unjustified uncertainties derived from negative results obtained in hydrological balances. However, a 0.5 m lowering of the water-table surface was experienced. A knowledge of groundwater functioning was required to establish a reliable frame of reference for development and, at the same time, to find possible scenarios of feasible economic activities in harmony with accessible water resources and aptitude of the environment. The flow regime was found to be composed of three main systems: a regional, an intermediate and several local. The intermediate system provides water for the extraction boreholes, and discharges naturally in Salina La Antigua. From the chemical perspective the intermediate system has three groundwater groups. Group I has an outstanding fluoride concentration (1.98–3.10 mg/l) defined to the north of the City of la Rioja and the highest temperature (26.8–33.0°C), the lowest lithium content (0.029–0.059 mg/l) and moderate arsenic (≤0.038 mg/l). Group II has the moderate arsenic content (≤0.38 mg/l) detected to the south of the City of La Rioja and high lithium (0.024–0.085 mg/l), Group III has the lowest TDS (456–931 mg/l) and arsenic (0.007–0.012 mg/l) and the highest lithium (0.067–0.141 mg/l). to A regional flow is represented by Group IV with one order of magnitude higher strontium (4.870 mg/l), lead (0.021 mg/l) and uranium (0.362 mg/l) content than the other groups. Results provide evidence to eliminate several well-established hydro-myths such as “the boreholes are getting dry” and “boreholes are getting saline water”. The aquifer (granular Tertiary and Quaternary material) thickness (≈750m) was defined with the aid of the geological framework, geothermometers and Modflow modelling. The aquifer extent extends far beyond the limits of the study area. Several economic activities were found to be feasible with available groundwater resources and without bordening the environment (fish farming, bottled-water marketing, SPA activities and farming of endangered species).     

2017年8月9日精河6.6级地震灾害损失及灾后恢复重建经费评估

2017年8月9日新疆精河发生6.6级地震,地震造成36人受伤,各类房屋建筑、公共服务设施、基础设施等遭受不同程度的破坏。通过实地抽样调查,按照国家标准的原则和方法,评估出此次地震造成的直接经济损失为429964万元,灾后恢复重建经费约需538461万元。     

1999年9月14日和11月30日四川绵竹两次5.0级地震预报

1999年在四川省德阳市绵竹县发生了两次5.0级地震.其中1999年11月30日绵竹汉旺5.0级地震前,德阳市地震局对该次地震的时问、地区、震级三要素做出了准确的短临预报.该项预报在人口稠密经济发达的四川德阳地区成功实现,取得了良好的社会和经济效益,得到了中国地震局,德阳市人民政府的充分肯定,并予以表彰和奖励.     

Impact analysis of government investment on water projects in the arid Gansu Province of China

In this paper, we introduced three-nested Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function into a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. Through four levels of factor productivity, we constructed three nested production function of land use productivity in the conceptual modeling frameworks. The first level of factor productivity is generated by the basic value-added land. On the second level, factor productivity in each sector is generated by human activities that presents human intervention to the first level of factor productivity. On the third level of factor productivity, water allocation reshapes the non-linear structure of transaction among first and second levels. From the perspective of resource utilization, we examined the economic efficiency of water allocation. The scenario-based empirical analysis results show that the three-nested CES production function within CGE model is well-behaved to present the economy system of the case study area. Firstly, water scarcity harmed economic production. Government investment on water projects in Gansu thereby had impacts on economic outcomes. Secondly, huge governmental financing on water projects bring depreciation of present value of social welfare. Moreover, water use for environment adaptation pressures on water supply. The theoretical water price can be sharply increased due to the increasing costs of factor inputs. Thirdly, water use efficiency can be improved by water projects, typically can be benefited from the expansion of water-saving irrigation areas even in those expanding dry area in Gansu. Therefore, increasing governmental financing on water projects can depreciate present value of social welfare but benefit economic efficiency for future generation.     

高精度磁法在柬埔寨王国贡布省速富县本库比铁矿的勘查效果

"一带一路"经济带区域地质研究程度较低,仅有小比例地质图或航磁资料,很多区域甚至是地质处女地,开展矿产资源勘查工作困难较大,柬埔寨王国贡布省便是典型区域代表,文章以我单位在柬埔寨王国贡布省速富县本库比铁矿项目的找矿效果及工程验证效果为例,从地面高精度磁法磁异常范围划定、分类、靶区圈定和勘查效果等方面进行论述,旨在阐明该勘查区未发现基岩及矿点出露点,地质调查无法取得找矿效果的情况下,采用地面高精度磁法成功有效地为柬埔寨王国贡布省找到一中型隐伏磁体矿床,突显了高精度磁法在隐伏矿体勘查中独有的优势。     

2009年飞机人工增雨作业抗春旱效益评估

本文介绍了人工增雨作业效益的一种评估方法——区域雨量对比法,以及该方法在实际业务工作中的应用：统计了2009年春季四川省飞机人工增雨的作业情况,采用区域雨量对比法对每次作业进行效益计算,得出每次作业的影响面积、影响区降水、对比区降水、增雨量、增加的降水量等,根据春旱期间的降水情况与旱情缓解情况,对人工增雨抗春旱的效益进行了分析评估,并尝试计算出缩短春旱的持续时间,给出了评估结论,并对该方法的应用进行了讨论。该评估方法对于人工影响天气业务工作,具有一定的实用性和可操作性。     

提高南四湖综合治理工程的投资效益

南四湖治理的中心任务是降低洪水位,在尽快续建两项主要工程—扩大韩庄运河和扩大湖腰—的前提下,湖内清障是保证洪水畅泄、降低水位、缩短滞洪时间,减少洪灾损失的重要措施。本文着重对以往湖内清苇实施困难、效果不佳的原因进行了分析,为了提高今后治湖工程的综合经济效益,对开展清障工作提出了建议。