Records of Toba eruptions in the South China Sea -Chemical characteristics of the glass shards from ODP 1143A

Three layers of volcanic tephra, sampled from ODP 1143 Site in the South China Sea,were observed at the mcd depth of 5.55 m, 42.66 m, and 48.25 m, and named, in this paper, lay ers of A, B, and C, respectively. All of these tephra layers have an average thickness of ca. 2 cm.They were constrained in age of ca. 0.070 Ma, ca. 0.80 Ma, and ca. 1.00 Ma, respectively, by the microbiostratigraphy data. These tephra layers were predominated by volcanic glass shards with a median grain size of 70-75 μm in diameter. Major chemical compositions analyzed by EMPA and comparison with the previous data from other scatter areas suggest that these three layers of tephra can correspond to the three layers of Toba tephra, YTT, OTT, and HDT, respectively, erupt ing during the Quaternary. The occurrence of these tephra layers in the South China Sea implies that the Toba eruptions often occurred in the summer monsoon seasons of the South China Sea during the Quaternary, and that the strength of eruptions was probably stronger than that previously estimated.     

EFFECT OF WINTER MONSOON ON SUMMER MONSOON THROUGH AIR-SEA INTERACTION

In this paper the relationships between the sea surface temperature (SST) of Xisha and that in the northern Indianand northern Pacific Oceans,the geopotential height at 500 hPa level of the Northern Hemisphere,and rainfall in Chinaare studied statistically using data in the period of 1961—1992.Results show that in winter,the interannual variation inSST of Xisha describes that for a large oceanic region off the East Asia coast,and is closely related to the activity of EastAsia winter monsoon.On the other hand,there exist very high values of auto-correlation of Xisha SST anomaly fromDecember through the following July,but the anomalous condition is hardly correlated to that in the preceding autumn.The winter monsoon related anomalous SST condition in Xisha has a strong tendency to persist through the succeedingsummer monsoon season with the same sign.In addition,correlation maps of monthly mean rainfall in China with re-spect to Xisha SST of the same month show positive correlations with confidence level above 95% to the east of 110°Eand to the south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River during the months of October through April;the region becomes smal-ler in May and changes correlation sign in June;the positive correlation region is located in the middle and lower reachesof Changjiang River from July to September.The air-sea interaction plays an important role in these processes.     

Systematic errors in the medium range prediction of the Asian summer monsoon circulation

The present study describes an analysis of Asian summer monsoon forecasts with an operational general circulation model (GCM) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. An attempt is made to examine the influence of improved treatment of physical processes on the reduction of systematic errors. As some of the major changes in the parameterization of physical processes, such as modification to the infrared radiation scheme, deep cumulus convection scheme, introduction of the shallow convection scheme etc., were introduced during 1985–88, a thorough systematic error analysis of the ECMWF monsoon forecasts is carried out for a period prior to the incorporation of such changes i.e. summer monsoon season (June–August) of 1984, and for the corresponding period after relevant changes were implemented (summer monsoon season of 1988). Monsoon forecasts of the ECMWF demonstrate an increasing trend of forecast skill after the implementation of the major changes in parameterizations of radiation, convection and land-surface processes. Further, the upper level flow is found to be more predictable than that of the lower level and wind forecasts display a better skill than temperature. Apart from this, a notable increase in the magnitudes of persistence error statistics indicates that the monsoon circulation in the analysed fields became more intense with the introduction of changes in the operational forecasting system. Although, considerable reduction in systematic errors of the Asian summer monsoon forecasts is observed (up to day-5) with the introduction of major changes in the treatment of physical processes, the nature of errors remain unchanged (by day-10). The forecast errors of temperature and moisture in the middle troposphere are also reduced due to the changes in treatment of longwave radiation. Moreover, the introduction of shallow convection helped it further by enhancing the vertical transports of heat and moisture from the lower troposphere. Though, the hydrological cycle in the operational forecasts appears to have enhanced with the major modifications and improvements to the physical parameterization schemes, certain regional peculiarities have developed in the simulated rainfall distribution over the monsoon region. Hence, this study suggests further attempts to improve the formulations of physical processes for further reduction of systematic forecast errors.     

Large-scale interannual variation of the summer monsoon over India and its empirical prediction

Large-scale interannual variability of the northern summer southwest monsoon over India is studied by examining its variation in the dry area during the period 1871–1984. On the mean summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) chart the 800 mm isohyet divides the country into two nearly equal halves, named as dry area (monsoon rainfall less than 800 mm) and wet area (monsoon rainfall greater than 800 mm). The dry area/wet area shows large variations from one year to another, and is considered as an index for assessing the large-scale performance of the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical and fluctuation characteristics of the summer monsoon dry area (SMDA) are reported. To identify possible causes of variation in the Indian summer monsoon, the correlation between the summer monsoon dry area and eleven regional/global circulation parameters is examined. The northern hemisphere surface air temperature, zonal/hemispheric/global surface air and upper air temperatures, Southern Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial lower stratosphere, April 500-mb ridge along 75°E over India, the Indian surface air temperature and the Bombay sea level pressure showed significant correlation. A new predictor parameter that is preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of a few selected stations over India has been suggested in the present study. The stations have been selected by applying the objective technique ‘selecting a subset of few gauges whose mean monsoon rainfall of the preceding year has shown the highest correlation coefficient (CC) with the SMDA’. Bankura (Gangetic West Bengal), Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) and Anupgarh (West Rajasthan) entered the selection showing a CC of 0.724. Using a dependent sample of 1951–1980 a predictive model (multiple CC = 0.745) has also been developed for the SMDA with preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of the three selected stations and the sea level pressure tendency at Darwin from Jan–Feb to Mar–May as independent parameters.     

关于冰期演变三个问题的讨论

施雅风和李吉均（1994）在总结80年代以来中国冰川学研究的新进展中,提出了3个有待深化和争论的问题：1）不同地区最大冰期出现先后差别的原因尚不清楚;对是否存在一种与季风区相反的模式,即冰期与雨期同步;3）在冰期变化中"气候因素与构造因素何者为主".这3个问题也可以说是本世纪冰川学研究留给下世纪的3个问题．它的解决只有冰川学、气候学和地球动力学等的结合才有可能文章拟对此3个问题提点看法,以期"抛砖引玉"．     

Possible role of warming on Indian summer monsoon precipitation over the north-central Indian subcontinent

ABSTRACT

Broad disagreement between modelled and observed trends of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the north-central part of the Indian subcontinent (NCI) implies a gap in understanding of the relationship between the forcing factors and monsoonal precipitation. Although the strength of the land–sea thermal gradient (LSG) is believed to dictate monsoon intensity, its state and fate under continuous warming over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and part of the NCI (23–28°N, 80–95°E) are less explored. Precipitation (1901–2017) and temperature data (1948–2017) at different vertical heights are used to understand the impact of warming in the ISM. In NCI, surface air temperature increased by 0.1–0.2°C decade^?1, comparable to the global warming rate. The ISM precipitation prominently weakened and seasonality reduced after 1950, which is caused by a decrease in the LSG at the depth of the troposphere. Warming-induced increase in local convection over the BoB further reduced ISM precipitation over NCI.     

太阳辐射变化对我国中东部和西非夏季风雨量的影响

60年代后期以来，尤其进入80年代，全球气候显著增暖，但从北半球以至我国来看，此种增暖主要出现于冬季，而在盛夏的东亚—西非季风雨带却呈现出明显南移趋势。经严格统计检验并获得数值试验的支持，发现此种南移趋势及伴随的华北和Sahel区雨量的减少，与北半球—我国晴空太阳直接辐射的减少趋势有关。后者的出现是近年来火山活动频繁和大气污染加剧综合作用的结果。     

LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION AND MECHANISM OF VERTICAL CIRCULATION OF EASTERN ASIAN MONSOON*

Analysis is performed of low-frequency oscillation (LFO) and its relation to monsoon by means of ECMWF numerical prediction data in the period 1 June to 30 September 1984,indicating that remarkable local LFO exists in the vertical meridional and equatorial zonal circulations.And preliminary discussion is made of the origin of the LFO of the East-Asian summer monsoon meridional circulation in the LFO of the mid and upper troposphere vertical motion around 30°S.The LFOs in the meridional circulations of both hemispheres are linked together by the LFO of the meridional circulation.Finally the possible relation between the tropical monsoon LFO and Meiyu (plum rain).     

东亚冬季风三维环流的低频振荡特征

利用ＥＣＭＷＦ／ＷＭＯ逐日客观分析格点资料，采用带通滤波分析了冬季风环流的低频振荡特征，结果表明冬季风水平环流和垂直环流都表现出显著的准４０天振荡特征，高低层水平环流的低频变化主要受热带西太平洋和澳大利亚附近的低频涡旋系统的影响，纬向环流的低频变化表现为Ｗａｌｋｅｒ环流的加强和减弱。经向环流则表现为局地振荡特征，它的低频振荡起着联接南北半球和高低层季风环流低频振荡的作用。     

Changing predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies?

The predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from pre-season circulation indices is explored from observations during 1939–91. The predictand is the all-India average of June–September precipitation NIR, and the precursors examined are the latitude position of the 500 mb ridge along 75°E in April (L), the pressure tendency April minus January at Darwin (DPT), March-April-May temperature at six stations in west central India (T6), the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the northeastern Arabian Sea in May (ASM), SST anomaly in the Arabian Sea in January (ANJ), northern hemisphere temperature anomaly in January–February (NHT), and Eurasian snow cover in January (SNOW). Monsoon rainfall tends to be enhanced with a more northerly ridge position, small Darwin pressure tendency, warmer pre-season conditions, and reduced winter snow cover. However, relationships have varied considerably over the past half-century, with the strongest associations during 1950–80, and a drastic weakening in the 1980s. Four prediction models were constructed based on stepwise multiple regression, using as predictors combinations of L, DPT, T6, ASM, and NHT, with 1939–68 as “dependent” dataset, or training period, and 1969–91 as “independent” dataset or verification period. For the 1969–80 portion of the verification period calculated and observed NIR values agreed closely, with the models explaining 74–79% of the variance. By contrast, after 1980 predictions deteriorated drastically, with the explained variance for the 1969–89 time span dropping to 25–31%. The monsoon rainfall of 1990 and 1991 turned out to be again highly predictable from models based on stepwise multiple regression and linear discriminant analysis and using as input L + DPT or L + DPT + NHT, and with this encouragement an experimental real-time forecast was issued of the 1992 monsoon rainfall. These results underline the need for investigations into decadal-scale changes in the general circulation setting and raise concern for the continued success of seasonal forecasting.