CHINA’S FOUR MAJOR METEOROLOGICAL SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENTS

China lies in East-Asian monsoon region,which is one of the well-known active monsoon zones around the world.Monsoon anomaly results in frequent natural disasters,such as drought,torrential rain and flood.In 1998,joint intensified observations for 4 major meteorological scientific experiments have been carried out over Chinese major monsoon affected areas.A number of valuable data have been obtained and some observational facts have come out after initial analysis.The present paper is to give an introduction to the 4 major meteorological scientific experiments conducted in 1998 in China.including its origin and scientific goals,implementation and planning,equipment and progress,and initial findings from the important observational facts.It aims to provide a comprehensive report on the progress of the above experiments for those who are interested in.     

EVIDENCE FOR ABRUPT CLIMATIC CHANGES ONNORTHWESTERN MARGIN OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON REGION DURING LAST DEGLACIATION

Based on investigations of the Zhongwei Nanshan aeolian section situated in the southeastern margin of Tengger Dcsert, carbon-14 and TL (thermoluminescence) dating results and paleoclimatic proxies such as magnetic susceptibility and grain size, we inferred that the northwestern margin of East Asian monsoon region experienced abrupt climatic changes during the last deglaciation. Six oscillation events were identified: Oldest Dryas, Belling, Older Dryas, AllerФd, lntra-AllerФd Cold Period (1ACP) and Younger Dryas (YD). The summer monsoon was weaker during Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas when the winter monsoon was stronger. However, during the B/A (BФlling/AllerФd) period, the summer monsoon strengthened, reflected by magnetic susceptibility, when the winter monsoon also became strong, which is different from the paleoclimatic pattern established in the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore,the summer monsoon was nearly in phase with the climate changes inferred from the oxygen isotopic records of Greenland ice cores. It could be speculated that the variations of the sea ice cover in the high latitudes of the North Hemisphere affected the high pressure of Asian continent and the changes of the winter monsoon inland. On the other hand,the sea ice cover variations might have indirectly caused the occurrence of ENSO events that has tightly been related to the summer monsoon in northwest margin of East Asian monsoon region.     

对流层低层的季风

文章提出一种对流层低层季风定义的新方法。通过大量的资料分析,作者认为:对流层低层的风可以近似地看作是二部分的线性组合。一部分是非季风的行星风,这部分代表大气对海陆地形的动力强迫的响应;另一部分则是季风,这部分是大气对海陆地形的热力强迫响应。作者用多年平均的年平均风来代表行星风,这样分离出来的季风与经典季风相比有很多优点:1.计算简单;2.物理图象清楚;3.便于划分季风区。     

最近50年来莱州湾东部典型砂岸潮上带土地利用变化研究

以不同时期测量和成像的地形图和高分辨率遥感影像为数据源,综合使用野外调查、遥感(RS)、全球定位系统(GPS)和地理信息系统(GIS)等方法,对最近50多年来莱州湾东部砂岸典型岸段(界河口—刁龙嘴)的土地利用变化进行研究。结果表明,最近50多年来,莱州湾东部海岸土地利用/土地覆被变化显著,土地利用类型转化的总趋势是风沙地、林地、耕地向养殖池及居民地转化。从20世纪90年代初以来,该岸段潮上带风沙地大部分已为养殖池(塘、大棚)等所覆盖,在沿海防护林和海域之间新出现了一条平行于岸线、基本连续展布的水产养殖设施带,其外侧建有高出当地最高潮位的防浪堤。潮上带土地覆被的如此深刻变化,必然深刻地改变风暴潮作用时的水动力边界条件,导致风暴潮作用过程中沿水下岸坡—海滩—潮上带方向的能量分布发生调整,进一步会对海岸地貌及冲淤发生的范围、强度、性质和形式等带来变化。因此,大面积的潮上带土地利用可能是莱州湾东部砂岸,最近30年来海岸地貌冲淤演变的重要影响因素之一,这为今后深入研究并预测该段海岸地貌冲淤变化提供了新的视角。     

冬季西太平洋暖池与华南降水关系的年代际变化

利用1951-2010年全国台站冬季降水观测资料、Hadley环流中心逐月海表温度资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,探讨了西太平洋暖池与我国华南地区冬季降水的关系。结果表明,西太平洋暖池与我国华南冬季降水的年际关系在1972年发生了明显的年代际转折,20世纪70年代前两者弱的负相关未通过信度检验,而70年代后两者相关系数达到-0.5~-0.6。回归分析显示,70年代前,暖池对产生华南冬季降水的水汽条件以及动力条件等的影响不显著,因此其与华南冬季降水的关系不明显。70年代后,暖池偏暖时,在菲律宾海区域激发出一个显著的气旋性环流,该环流西北侧的偏北风不利于南海地区水汽向我国华南地区输送,华南地区水汽辐散增强,而且南支槽地区对流减弱,南支扰动不活跃且扰动不能向下游地区传播,华南地区扰动活动减弱,此外暖池偏暖使北半球经向环流显著增强,且下沉支位于我国华南地区,加强了华南地区的下沉运动,因而华南地区冬季降水显著偏少;暖池偏冷时,情况相反。     

全球变暖减缓背景下欧亚秋冬温度变化特征和原因

采用气候序列变化趋势诊断和一元线性回归等分析法,研究和讨论了2000-2012年和1976-1999年两种年代际背景下全球陆地不同区域的年平均地表温度的变化特征。发现欧亚大陆中高纬度地区是对全球变暖减缓贡献最大的区域。且该地区在2000年以来秋季年代际增温,而冬季年代际降温。从同期大气环流的配置来看,在对流层低层,秋季西伯利亚高气压年代际减弱,而冬季西伯利亚高气压年代际增强。在对流层中高层,秋季从西欧至东北亚为"高-低-高"的高度场异常分布,纬向环流加强,经向环流减弱,而冬季极地与贝加尔湖地区的高度场呈偶极型分布,东亚大槽加深,经向环流加强。进一步研究发现,超前一个季节的喀拉海附近的海冰与欧亚中高纬度秋冬两季温度的年代际变率有着密切的联系。一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少影响秋季(冬季)中高纬度大气环流;另一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少,使得秋季(冬季)从北极至中高纬度大陆的对流层低层水汽含量增加(减少),大气逆辐射增强(减弱)导致秋季(冬季)增温(降温)。     

基于海温异常的南海夏季风爆发的可预报性分析

定义了综合评估南海地区大气对海温异常等外强迫响应的指数,并以此作为中间变量提出了利用前期海温异常预报南海夏季风爆发早晚的方法,进一步分析了基于海温异常的南海夏季风爆发的可预报性。分析表明:基于前期海温的异常,对于以日为单位预报对象的定量的南海夏季风爆发日期来说,基本没有可预报性;而对于定性的南海夏季风爆发早晚的预测,则可预报性大为提高。其预报时效可以提前至前期秋季的11月份。     

大气热源年代际异常与20世纪70年代末期东亚夏季风年代际减弱

利用1958-2001年ERA-40再分析资料计算大气热源,统计分析了亚洲季风区及其邻近海域大气热源年代际变异的典型模态;利用线性斜压干模式,模拟了夏季大气对大气热源年代际异常的响应,揭示了大气热源年代际异常与1970s末期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的关系。结果表明:近50 a来亚洲及其邻近海域夏季整层大气热源变异主要表现为年代际变化特征,其年代际位相转换发生在1970s中后期,这与东亚夏季风年代际减弱的时间一致;菲律宾附近海域和中国西南地区是与东亚夏季风年代际减弱有直接联系的两个热源异常关键区;东亚夏季风年代际减弱最直接地表现为这两个关键区热源异常的共同作用,而赤道中东太平洋、赤道印度洋大气热源增强则通过大气遥响应机制影响菲律宾附近海域低层大气环流异常对东亚夏季风变异起相反的贡献。     

利用不同方法反演冬小麦叶面积指数研究

基于高光谱数据的叶面积指数监测是快速获取冬小麦叶面积指数的重要方法。为了探究回归方法和高光谱数据变换对冬小麦叶面积指数反演精度的影响,采用逐步回归和偏最小二乘回归方法,分别建立基于冬小麦拔节期冠层高光谱数据、一阶导数光谱数据、二阶导数光谱数据和对数光谱数据的叶面积指数多元线性回归模型。结果显示,导数和对数变换能够提高冬小麦LAI反演精度,以蓝紫光、绿光、红光和近红外波段建立的一阶导数光谱数据逐步回归模型最优,建立回归模型的决定系数R2为0.974,交叉验证的RMSE为0.131,可为冬小麦LAI估算的方法选择和数据处理提供依据和参考。     

Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.