SARS流行时期天气气候特征分析

对 2 0 0 3年 1～ 5月我国大陆传染性非典型肺炎 (SARS)疾病流行时期的天气气候特征进行了分析。研究表明 ,气温偏高、空气潮湿以及冷暖多变的天气可能为SARS疫情的发展提供了“温床”     

从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

冬小麦遥感冠层温度监测土壤含水量的试验研究

在冬小麦主要生育期(2002年4月初到5月底),对不灌溉的冬小麦测定了冠层温度、地温、气温以及土壤含水量,计算了冠气温差且分析了冠层温度和冠气温差与不同土层厚度的土壤含水量相关关系。结果表明:14:00的冠层温度能较好地反映20cm土层的土壤含水量变化,但与其它各土层相关性有较大的波动性;14:00的冠气温差能较好地反映40cm以上土层的土壤含水量变化,二者的相关性很高,在20cm、40cm土层,两者相关系数R2分别为0.98866、0.99389,这为用区域遥感数据反演主要生育期冬小麦的冠气温差进而监测区域40cm土壤含水量提供了实验性的依据;拔节期和灌浆期,用14:00冠气温差来拟合各土壤层的土壤含水量有较高的精度,从而为用区域遥感数据监测区域土壤含水量提供了经验性的模型。     

黄河流域水循环演变若干问题的研究

从若干方面的研究结果揭示了黄河流域水循环发生的巨大变化.水循环是水资源科学评价与合理开发利用的基本依据.水循环主要要素的变化取决于气候条件的变化与人类活动的影响.对前者宜采用适应性对策,在研究气候变化的基础上,分析水循环变动的规律并预测其趋势,制定相应的适应性措施;对于后者则应加强水资源开发利用的科学管理,以维持流域天然水资源的可更新(可再生)性.     

Isotope provinces, mechanisms of generation and sources of the continental crust in the Central Asian mobile belt: geological and isotopic evidence

The available geological, geochronological and isotopic data on the felsic magmatic and related rocks from South Siberia, Transbaikalia and Mongolia are summarized to improve our understanding of the mechanisms and processes of the Phanerozoic crustal growth in the Central Asian mobile belt (CAMB). The following isotope provinces have been recognised: ‘Precambrian’ (T_DM=3.3–2.9 and 2.5–0.9 Ga) at the microcontinental blocks, ‘Caledonian’ (T_DM=1.1–0.55 Ga), ‘Hercynian’ (T_DM=0.8–0.5 Ma) and ‘Indosinian’ (T_DM=0.3 Ga) that coincide with coeval tectonic zones and formed at 570–475, 420–320 and 310–220 Ma. Continental crust of the microcontinents is underlain by, or intermixed with, ‘juvenile’ crust as evidenced by its isotopic heterogeneity. The continental crust of the Caledonian, Hercynian and Indosinian provinces is isotopically homogeneous and was produced from respective juvenile sources with addition of old crustal material in the island arcs or active continental margin environments. The crustal growth in the CAMB had episodic character and important crust-forming events took place in the Phanerozoic. Formation of the CAMB was connected with break up of the Rodinia supercontinent in consequence of creation of the South-Pacific hot superplume. Intraplate magmatism preceding and accompanying permanently other magmatic activity in the CAMB was caused by influence of the long-term South-Pacific plume or the Asian plume damping since the Devonian.     

Devolution, the governance of regional development and the Trade Union Congress in the North East region of England

The devolution and regionalisation of political and administrative structures following the election of New Labour in 1997 have changed the nature of the state and territorial development and governance in the UK. A regional and sub-national tier has opened up within the existing multi-layered governance system operating at the supra-national, national and local scales. This ‘new institutional space’ is increasingly open to the participation of social institutions--including trade unions--in economic and social governance. Drawing upon empirical analysis of the experience of the Northern Trade Union Congress (NTUC) in the North East region of England, the paper argues that the NTUC--in contrast to its national organisation--is beginning to engage with the emergent institutional structures but its role is inhibited by the centralised strategy and structure of the TUC nationally, its own need for upgrading, capacity building and greater financial resources and the interaction between the North East’s particular legacy of tripartite corporatism and the more pluralist modes of regional development governance emerging in the English regions. Unless such issues are addressed regional trade union centres--such as the NTUC--risk remaining relatively junior partners in the emergent regional governance structures.     

East African Rift System (EARS) Plume Structure: Insights from Quaternary Mafic Lavas of Turkana, Kenya

Quaternary mafic lavas from Lake Turkana (northern Kenya) provideinformation on processes operating beneath the East AfricanRift in an area of anomalous lithospheric and crustal thinning.Inferred depths of melting beneath Turkana (15–20 km)are shallower than those recorded elsewhere along the rift,consistent with the anomalously thin crustal section. The maficlavas have elevated incompatible trace element contents whencompared with mid-ocean ridge basalts, requiring an enrichmentevent in the source region. Basalts with low Sr isotopic ratios(     

Continental crustal growth and the supercontinental cycle: evidence from the Central Asian Orogenic Belt

Studies of supercontinental cycle are mainly concentrated on the assembly, breakup and dispersal of supercontinents, and studies of continental crustal growth largely on the growth and loss (recycling) of the crust. These two problems have long been studied separately from each other. The Paleozoic–Mesozoic granites in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt have commonly positive Nd values, implying large-scale continental crustal growth in the Phanerozoic. They coincided temporally and spatially with the Phanerozoic Pangea supercontinental cycle, and overlapped in space with the P-wave high-V anomalies and calculated positions of subducted slabs for the last 180 Ma, all this suggests that the Phanerozoic Laurasia supercontinental assembly was accompanied by large-scale continental crustal growth in central Asia. Based on these observations, this paper proposes that there may be close and original correlations between a supercontinental cycle, continental crustal growth and catastrophic slab avalanches in the mantle. In this model we suggest that rapid continental crustal growth occurred during supercontinent assembly, whereas during supercontinental breakup and dispersal new additions of the crust were balanced by losses, resulting in a steady state system. Supercontinental cycle and continental crustal growth are both governed by changing patterns of mantle convection.     

Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation and climatic history of the Cass Basin, central South Island, New Zealand

Lithology, pollen, macrofossils, and stable carbon isotopes from an intermontane basin bog site in southern New Zealand provide a detailed late-glacial and early Holocene vegetation and climate record. Glacial retreat occurred before 17,000 cal yr B.P., and tundra-like grassland–shrubland occupied the basin shortly after. Between 16,500 and 14,600 cal yr B.P., a minor regional expansion of forest patches occurred in response to warming, but the basin remained in shrubland. Forest retreated between 14,600 and 13,600 cal yr B.P., at about the time of the Antarctic Cold Reversal. At 13,600 cal yr B.P., a steady progression from shrubland to tall podocarp forest began as the climate ameliorated. Tall, temperate podocarp trees replaced stress-tolerant shrubs and trees between 12,800 and 11,300 cal yr B.P., indicating sustained warming during the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC). Stable isotopes suggest increasing atmospheric humidity from 11,800 to 9300 cal yr B.P. Mild (annual temperatures at least 1°C higher than present), and moist conditions prevailed from 11,000 to 10,350 cal yr B.P. Cooler, more variable conditions followed, and podocarp forest was completely replaced by montane Nothofagus forest at around 7500 cal yr B.P. with the onset of the modern climate regime. The Cass Basin late-glacial climate record closely matches the Antarctic ice core records and is in approximate antiphase with the North Atlantic.     

Active faulting at the Eurasian, North American and Pacific plates junction

The active faults known and inferred in the area where the major Pacific, North American and Eurasian plates come together group into two belts. One of them comprises the faults striking roughly parallel to the Pacific ocean margin. The extreme members of the belt are the longitudinal faults of islands arcs, in its oceanic flank, and the faults along the continental margins of marginal seas, in its continental flank. The available data show that all these faults move with some strike-slip component, which is always right-lateral. We suggest that characteristic right-lateral, either partially or dominantly, kinematics of the fault movements has its source in oblique convergence of the Pacific plate with continental Eurasian and North American plates. The second belt of active faults transverses the extreme northeast Asia as a continental extension of the active mid-Arctic spreading ridge. The two active fault belts do not cross but come close to each other at the northern margin of the Sea of Okhotsk marking thus the point where the Pacific, North American and Eurasian plates meet.