青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

南海东北部表层沉积中生源和矿物碎屑组分分析及其古环境意义

通过对南海东北部128个表层沉积样品的定量研究，揭示隆源和矿物碎屑各组分的分布，也显示了组分分析作为一种简单、快速的研究方法在海洋古环境研究中的潜力，研究区生源碎屑的分布明显受与水深相关的深海溶解作用所控制，水深3500-4000m的现代南海CCD以下，钙质生物的含量急剧减少，而硅质生物的含量急剧增加，研究区表层沉积中的碎屑矿物主要来源于亚洲大陆，吕宋镐的风化产物只起次要作用，且其分布主要受与离岸距离远近和海流相关的搬运作用所控制。     

LabVIEW设计中压力传感器的RBF神经网络温度补偿

在石油平台注水压力监测系统设计中 ,采用LabVIEW虚拟仪器平台 ,嵌入逼近能力强和收敛速度快的RBF神经网络 ,以人工环境实验数据为样本进行训练 ,实现了压力传感器的智能网络温度补偿。结果显示 ,此方法能够在压力、温度变化较大的恶劣环境下 ,获得很高的补偿精度。     

北太平洋亚热带环流区表层水中226Ra和228Ra的分布与变化

对1999年9～10月采自北太平洋亚热带环流区的19份表层海水样品的Ra同位素分析表明。研究海域表层水中的^226Ra、^228Ra放射性比度分别介于0．67～0．92、0．08～0．30Bq／m^3之间，平均值分别为0．74、0．11Bq/m^3．^226Ra/^228Ra)A．R．活度比的变化范围为0．11～0．44，平均值为0．19．上述数值明显低于近岸海域水体的相应值，表现为典型的开阔大洋水的特征．从空间分布的特征看，研究海域Ra同位素含量与^226Ra/^228Ra)A.R.值均呈均匀分布态势．将本研究结果与历史数据进行对比后发现，本研究获得的^226Ra、^228Ra放射性比度比20世纪60～80年代得到的数据来得低，可能与水体层化作用加强导致的Ra补充量的减少以及生物生产力升高导致的Ra迁出量的增加有关．北太平洋亚热带环流区表层水中Ra同位素的时间变化与文献报道的该海域叶绿素a、硅酸盐、磷酸盐含量与初级生产力的历史变化趋势相吻合．     

Sources and distribution of organic matter in a river-dominated estuary (Winyah Bay, SC, USA)

The sources and distribution of organic matter (OM) in surface waters and sediments from Winyah Bay (South Carolina, USA) were investigated using a variety of analytical techniques, including elemental, stable isotope and organic biomarker analyses. Several locations along the estuary salinity gradient were sampled during four different periods of contrasting river discharge and tidal range. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations of surface waters ranged from 7 mg l⁻¹ in the lower bay stations closest to the ocean to 20 mg l⁻¹ in the river and upper bay samples. There was a general linear relationship between DOC concentrations and salinity in three of the four sampling periods. In contrast, particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations were significantly lower (0.1–3 mg l⁻¹) and showed no relationship with salinity. The high molecular weight dissolved OM (HMW DOM) isolated from selected water samples collected along the bay displayed atomic carbon:nitrogen ratios ([C/N]a) and stable carbon isotopic compositions of organic carbon (δ¹³C_OC) that ranged from 10 to 30 and from −28 to −25‰, respectively. Combined, such compositions indicate that in most HMW DOM samples, the majority of the OM originates from terrigenous sources, with smaller contributions from riverine and estuarine phytoplankton. In contrast, the [C/N]a ratios of particulate OM (POM) samples varied significantly among the collection periods, ranging from low values of 5 to high values of >20. Overall, the trends in [C/N]a ratios indicated that algal sources of POM were most important during the early and late summer, whereas terrigenous sources dominated in the winter and early spring.In Winyah Bay bottom sediments, the concentrations of the mineral-associated OM were positively correlated with sediment surface area. The [C/N]a ratios and δ¹³C_OC compositions of the bulk sedimentary OM ranged from 5 to 45 and from −28 to −23‰, respectively. These compositions were consistent with predominant contributions of terrigenous sources and lesser (but significant) inputs of freshwater, estuarine and marine phytoplankton. The highest terrigenous contents were found in sediments from the river and upper bay sites, with smaller contributions to the lower parts of the estuary. The yields of lignin-derived CuO oxidation products from Winyah Bay sediments indicated that the terrigenous OM in these samples was composed of variable mixtures of relatively fresh vascular plant detritus and moderately altered soil OM. Based on the lignin phenol compositions, most of this material appeared to be derived from angiosperm and gymnosperm vascular plant sources similar to those found in the upland coastal forests in this region. A few samples displayed lignin compositions that suggested a more significant contribution from marsh C₃ grasses. However, there was no evidence of inputs of Spartina alterniflora (a C₄ grass) remains from the salt marshes that surround the lower sections of Winyah Bay.     

Barotropic Response of the Sea of Okhotsk to Wind Forcing

We have examined wind-induced circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk using a barotropic model that contains realistic topography with a resolution of 9.25 km. The monthly wind stress field calculated from daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis data is used as the forcing, and the integration is carried out for 20 days until the circulation attains an almost steady state. In the case of November (a representative for the winter season from October to March), southward currents of velocity 0.1–0.3 m s⁻¹ occur along the bottom contours off the east of Sakhalin Island. The currents are mostly confined to the shelf (shallower than 200 m) and extend as far south as the Hokkaido coast. In the July case (a representative for the summer season from April to September), significant currents do not occur, even in the shallow shelves. The simulated southward current over the east Sakhalin shelf appears to correspond to the near-shore branch of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC), which was observed with the surface drifters. These seasonal variations simulated in our experiments are consistent with the observations of the ESC. Dynamically, the simulated ESC is interpreted as the arrested topographic wave (ATW), which is the coastally trapped flow driven by steady alongshore wind stress. The volume transport of the simulated ESC over the shelf reaches about 1.0 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s⁻¹) in the winter season, which is determined by the integrated onshore Ekman transport in the direction from which shelf waves propagate. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

东亚冬夏季风对热带印度洋秋季海温异常的响应

利用多年的Reynolds月平均海表温度资料和NCEP/NCAR全球大气再分析资料,分析了热带印度洋秋季海表温度距平(SSTA)与后期东亚冬夏季风强度变化的关系。结果表明,热带印度洋秋季SSTA的主要模态是全区一致(USB)型和偶极子(IOD)型,USB型模态主要代表热带印度洋秋季SSTA的长期变化趋势,而IOD型模态主要反映热带印度洋秋季SSTA的年际变化。热带印度洋秋季海温气候变率中既存在着明显的ENSO信号,也有独立于ENSO的变率特征,独立于ENSO的热带印度洋秋季SSTA变化的主要模态仍是USB型和IOD型。前期秋季USB模态与东亚冬季风及东亚副热带夏季风之间为负相关关系;与前期正(负)IOD模态相对应,南海夏季风强度偏弱(强),而东亚副热带夏季风强度偏强(弱)。USB型和IOD型模态对后期东亚冬、夏季风强度变化的影响是独立于ENSO的,但ENSO起到了调节二者相关显著程度的作用。     

东海浮游翼足类(Pteropods)数量分布的研究

根据1997～2000年东海海域23°30'～33°00'N,118°30'～128°00'E的4个季节海洋调查资料,运用定量、定性方法,探讨了东海浮游翼足类总丰度的平面分布、季节变化及变化的动力学机制.结果表明,东海翼足类总丰度和出现频率有明显的季节变化,均为秋季最高,夏季次之,春季最低;总丰度在各个季节基本上呈东海南部高于北部、外海高于近海的分布趋势;春季的尖笔帽螺(Creseis acicula)、夏季的锥笔帽螺(Creseis virgula)、秋季的蝴蝶螺(Desmopterus papilio)和冬季的马蹄螔螺(Limacina trochiformis)是导致总丰度季节变化的最主要的种类;冬、春和夏3个季节丰度变化及4季总丰度的变化同表层或10m层水温有非常显著的线性相关关系,与底层温度及盐度的相关关系不显著.夏季翼足类高丰度区位于台湾暖流与黑潮暖流的分支处;从夏季到秋季,翼足类随着台湾暖流向北扩展,并在与长江冲淡水,闽浙沿岸水团,黄海水团等交汇处形成高丰度(大于500×10-2个/m3)和较高丰度(250×10-2～500×10-2个/m3)分布区.水温和海流是影响东海翼足类总丰度分布的主要环境因素.     

热带印度洋偶极子发生和演变机制的数值研究

对中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的第三代海洋模式(L30T63 OGCM)进行了改进。分析了该模式1959年1月—1998年12月的40a积分结果，以此研究热带印度洋偶极子发生、发展和消亡的物理机制。对数值模拟结果的分析表明，赤道印度洋表面异常东风引起的异常环流结构是偶极子发生、发展的主要动力学原因，其表面异常东风转换为异常西风所引起的异常环流结构调整是偶极子消亡的主要动力学原因；海气界面热通量异常的交换对热带印度洋海表温度距平偶极子模态的形成和演变起着重要的作用；垂直输送作用是热带印度洋次表层海温偶极子模态发生和演变的主要物理机制。     

东亚海区的海岸带综合管理经验:从地方性示范到区域性合作

本文阐述了东亚海区海岸带综合管理实践如何从地方性的示范发展到区域性的合作管理框架，如何实现海洋和海岸带资源的可持续利用．文中着重突出了厦门市政府在维持环境保护和经济发展的平衡，启动和实施海岸带综合管理，以及与沿海国在国际合作方面的经验，总结了厦门实施海岸带综合管理的主要经验，包括多部门间综合协调机制、海岸带综合管理法律框架、科技支撑体系的建立，海洋功能区划、环境剖面和战略环境管理计划的制定，以及实现海上联合执法等等．同时阐述了东亚海域环境管理区域合作计划（PEMSEA）与澳大利亚合作伙伴之间的关系在推动沿海城市的国际合作中将起到的作用．