2020年7月西北太平洋和南海“空台”环流特征分析

2020年7月西北太平洋和南海出现了史无前例的“空台”事件。利用NCEP再分析数据集、中国气象局（CMA）台风最佳路径等资料研究了此次“空台”现象的大尺度环流背景及动力和热力学特征。使用台风潜在生成指数（DGPI）分析发现2020年7月大尺度环流背景不利于台风生成,环流系统的异常通过影响对流层垂直风切变和垂直运动限制了台风的活动。2020年7月马斯克林高压较常年明显偏西偏弱,导致索马里急流强度减弱,越赤道气流不活跃,菲律宾以东洋面和南海海域盛行一致的偏东气流,历史同期活跃在该区域的季风槽无法建立,从而不利于热带扰动的生成。北半球极涡主体偏向西半球一侧,影响东半球冷空气势力较弱,副热带高压位置偏西;南亚高压较历史同期偏强且偏东,其东侧强盛的偏东气流将洋中槽截断,在西北太平洋区域出现反气旋性环流,该区域下沉气流增强,导致副热带高压强度增强,对流层中层强烈的下沉气流抑制了台风的生成和发展。此外,受中高层环流系统异常的影响,7月菲律宾吕宋岛以东洋面和南海地区环境垂直风切变较常年偏高2～4 m/s,南海部分海域偏高达4～8 m/s,同时该区域内异常偏强的下沉气流导致对流层低层相对湿度偏低,大气层...     

Numerical prediction of MODUs drift during Hurricane Katrina

Severe hurricanes, such as Katrina, broke the mooring lines of a number of mobile offshore drilling units (MODU) deployed in the Gulf of Mexico and some of those MODUs went adrift. A drifting MODU may damage other critical elements of the offshore oil and gas infrastructure by colliding with floating or fixed production systems and transportation hubs, or by rupturing pipelines owing to their dragging anchors over the seabed. To avoid or mitigate the damage caused by a drifting MODU, it is desirable to understand the mechanics of the drift of a MODU under the impact of severe wind, wave and current and have the capability of predicting the trajectory of the drift. To explore the feasibility and accuracy of predicting the trajectory of a drifting MODU based on hindcast met-ocean conditions and limited knowledge of the condition of the drifting MODU, this study employed a simplified equation describing only the horizontal (surge, sway and yaw) motions of a MODU under the impact of steady wind, current and wave forces. The simplified hydrodynamic model neglects the first- and second-order oscillatory wave forces, unsteady wind forces (owing to wind gustiness), wave drift damping, and the effects of the body oscillation on the steady wind and current forces. It was assumed that the net effects of the oscillatory forces on the steady motion are insignificant. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of our simplified approach, the predicted drifting trajectories of two MODUs were compared with the corresponding measurements recorded by the global positioning system (GPS).     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Comparison of flow patterns in the near wake of a circular cylinder and a square cylinder placed near a plane wall

The flow patterns in the near wake of a cylinder (either circular or square in shape, D=25 mm) placed in the proximity of a fully developed turbulent boundary layer (thickness δ=0.4D) are investigated experimentally using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The effects of changing the gap height (S) between the cylinder bottom and the wall surface, over the gap ratio range S/D=0.1–1.0, have been investigated. The results show that both the ensemble-averaged and instantaneous flow fields are strongly dependent on S/D. The flow patterns for the two types of cylinders share many similarities with respect to the change in S/D, such as the reduced recirculation length and increased velocity fluctuation in the near wake with increasing S/D, as well as the trend of suppression of vortex shedding at small S/D and onset of vortex shedding at large S/D. However, developments of the shear layers, in terms of wake width, flow curvature, etc., are considerably different for these two types of cylinders. In general, the wake development and momentum exchange for the square cylinder are slower those for the circular cylinder at the same gap ratio. Correspondingly, it is shown that the periodic vortex shedding is delayed and weakened in the case of square cylinder, as compared to that of the circular cylinder at the same S/D.     

Wind impact on pollutant transport in a shallow estuary

A three-dimensional numerical model, EFDC （ environmental fluid dynamics code） is applied to the Pamlico River Estuary （PRE） in eastern North Carolina of the United States to examine the wind impact on pollutant age distributions and residence time. A series of model experiments representing base case, remote-wind-induced water level set-up and local winds cases are conducted. Model results indicate that the pollutant mean age and the system residence time are functions of gravitational circulation in the PRE. The system responses to remote-wind-induced water level set-up are different in different portions of the PRE. Under such condition, dissolved substances in the upstream portion of the PRE have a younger age and shorter residence time （compared with the base case） , by contrast, they have a older age and longer residence time in the downstream portion of the PRE. Upriver and downriver local winds appear to have opposite impacts on pollutant age distributions. The substances are retained much longer within the PRE under upriver wind than those under downriver wind. The model results also suggest that across - river winds may lead to longer residence time through enhanced turbulence mixing, which slows down the gravitational circulation in the PRE.     

Analysis on the indicator species and ecological groups of pelagic ostracods in the East China Sea

Ecological adaptation and ecological groups of pelagic ostracods were examined in the East China Sea （23°30′-33°00′N, 118°30′ -128°00′E）, in relation to temperature and salinity. The data were collected in four surveys conducted from 1997 to 2000. The density, yield density, or negative exponent models were used to determine the optimal temperature and salinity of water for the thriving growth of pelagic ostracods. Thereafter, ecological groups and potential distribution patterns of pelagic ostracods were determined based on the predicted parameters such as optimal temperature and salinity, consulting the geographic distribution. The analytical results indicate that, among the numerical dominant pelagic ostracods in the East China Sea （ECS）, Euconchoecia aculeata, E. elongata, E. chierchiae, E. maimai, and Cypridina dentata, etc. are offshore subtropical water species. These species are widely distributed in the area, and they can be brought by the warm current to north offshore during spring and winter. The predicated optimal temperature （OT） and optimal salinity （OS） for Paraconchoecia decipiens, P. echinata, P. spini- fera, P. oblonga, Conchoecia magna and Porroeciaporrecta are all greater than 25℃ and 34 separately. These species are mainly distributed in the waters of the Kuroshio, the Taiwan Warm Current, and the Taiwan Strait, and therefore are designated as ocean- ic tropical water species. On the other hand, Pseudoconchoecia concerttrica is considered as offshore subtropical water species based on its geographical distribution although its OT is 19℃. The other species, though their OSs are approximately 34 and with OTs ranging from 20° to 25℃, are considered as offshore subtropical water species because they were found to be widely distributed from the South China Sea to the East China Sea.     

Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK

A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs.     

Changes in the abundance and composition of picophytoplankton in relation to the occurrence of a Kyucho and a bottom intrusion in the Bungo Channel,Japan

The Bungo Channel in southwestern Japan receives both warm, called Kyucho, and cold deep-water intrusions (bottom intrusion) from the Pacific Ocean. Abundances of Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and eukaryotic picophytoplankton were monitored from 18 July to 17 August 2001 to clarify whether advected picophytoplankton from the Pacific Ocean can grow in the channel or not. Synechococcus cells were further discriminated into low- and high-PUB types according to their fluorescence property in flow cytometry. From 18 to 25 July, the water temperature decreased by 3 °C at a 5-m depth at all stations, indicating the occurrence of a bottom intrusion. From 25 July to 4 August, a Kyucho occurred and the water temperature rapidly increased. From 4 to 17 August, a bottom intrusion and a Kyucho both occurred twice, although the intensities were smaller than those occurring until 4 August. From 18 to 30 July, the abundance of both Prochlorococcus and a high-PUB type of Synechococcus drastically decreased because of a bottom intrusion; however, the abundances rapidly increased due to the advection by a Kyucho. These advected cells increased from 4 to 17 August in the channel and Kitanada Bay. Changes in the abundance of low-PUB type of Synechococcus and eukaryotic picophytoplankton were less noticeable than those in the abundance of Prochlorococcus and high-PUB type. The present study demonstrated that oceanic picophytoplankton advected by the Kyucho could grow in the channel. However, abundances of low-PUB type and eukaryotic picophytoplankton increased higher than those of Prochlorococcus and high-PUB type did. Thus, these oceanic phytoplankters will be excluded when Kyucho does not occur for a long time. The co-occurrence of various types of picophytoplankton found in the channel is probably achieved by both Kyucho event and their growth capability in the channel.     

Compliance costs and the small fisher: A study of exiters from the New Zealand fishery

Over 3000 predominantly small-scale fishers have exited the New Zealand's quota management system (QMS) between its inception in 1986 and 2000. This study, based on the Ministry of Fisheries database and a questionnaire sent to the exiters, establishes that compliance costs in general, and those specifically related to the QMS, were one of the most consistent reasons for exit. Uncertainty about future QMS policy and the high cost of quota were also significant factors. It appears that the small fishers’ perception of high compliance cost can be supported by industry data.