2010—2015年中东北非政局变动中的“政治性民意势力”及其影响

援引批判地缘政治学话语权和地缘政治想象分析方法,在对“民意”“政治性民意”“政治性民意势力”内涵界定的基础上,分析了2010—2015年中东北非地区相关国家政局变动中“政治性民意势力”的形成背景、过程及其影响。结果表明：中东北非国家“政治性民意势力”的形成有着深厚的国内背景和复杂的国际背景;“政治性民意势力”的形成经历了从民意事件客体的呈现,到民众聚集并上升为政治性议题,再到国内外势力借力博弈形成挑动抗议、推动政变的政治力量的过程;“政治性民意势力”形成以后,多行为体借力博弈下,在国别、区域上呈现不同的扩散轨迹和规律;“政治性民意势力”一方面造成了中东北非相关国家的政局变换,另一方面则推动区域地缘政治格局的变迁。这是对民意事件的地缘政治理论解读和分析,是一次较为有意义的尝试。     

黄海、东海区域漫衰减系数光谱遥感反演及激光测深性能评估

本文在总结和比较中国现有黄海、东海海域漫衰减系数反演算法的基础上,利用水色测量数据分析得到漫衰减系数Kd(532)与Kd(490)之间的关系,为激光测深系统(以CZMIL为例)的性能评估提供了基础。利用MODIS二级数据产品评估了中国黄海、东海海域在CZMIL海道测量模式下最大可测水深的空间分布。研究结果表明CZMIL在黄海、东海海域可测水深基本在0—50 m,该区域的面积占研究区域面积的比例为76.2%,为浅海海域开展激光测深作业提供了测深能力评估的依据和方法。     

Characterization of spatial and temporal variation of suspended sediments in the Yellow and East China Seas using satellite ocean color data

Total suspended sediment (TSS) data concentrations are retrieved from two sets of satellite ocean color data (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua and the Korean Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI)) using an existing regional model to characterize spatial and temporal variation of TSS in the Yellow and East China Seas. MODIS-derived TSS maps show that TSS concentrations are, in general, high along the Korean and Chinese coasts including the Bohai Sea and the Yangtz River estuary, and lower in the middle of the Yellow Sea and the southeastern area of the East China Sea. The monthly average of 10-year MODIS data reveals that TSS values are highest during winter (January to February) and lowest in summer (July to August). Short-term TSS concentrations retrieved from GOCI data showed the dominant influence of semi-diurnal tidal changes on sediment dynamics through temporal (hourly) and spatial distribution in coastal zones of the Yellow sea. The results presented here demonstrate that the satellite-derived TSS products can be utilized as an application tool for future studies on long- and short-term sediment dynamics of turbid coastal waters. In particular, GOCI observations provide unique important capabilities to characterize and quantify the water properties at high temporal (hourly) and spatial (0.5 km) resolutions in the turbid coastal waters of the Yellow Sea and its vicinities.     

利用掩星资料分析东亚地区云厚的分布特征

利用2007年1月至2009年1月COSMIC掩星湿空气数据,基于相对湿度廓线出入云层时发生突变反演云边界高度的思想,统计分析了东亚地区云厚的分布特征。结果表明,掩星最低探测高度集中在3km以下,主要影响部分中云和低云云厚的反演。云发生概率沿纬度和经度方向呈现不同的分布特征,各类云概率随高度也有不同的变化规律。东亚地区所有云的平均厚度为1.78km,其中单层云和顶层云分布相似,双层云与其他云层的地理差异不大,单层云在春秋季分布相对均匀,而在夏冬季差异较大。夏季和冬季顶层云云顶高与云厚的二维频率分布各异,主要在于夏季有更多云体较厚且位于对流层上部的高云存在。     

Night on Earth: Mapping decadal changes of anthropogenic night light in Asia

The defense meteorological satellite program (DMSP) operational linescan system (OLS) sensors have imaged emitted light from Earth's surface since the 1970s. Temporal overlap in the missions of 5 OLS sensors allows for intercalibration of the annual composites over the past 19 years (Elvidge et al., 2009). The resulting image time series captures a spatiotemporal signature of the growth and evolution of lighted human settlements and development. We use empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the temporal feature space to characterize and quantify patterns of temporal change in stable night light brightness and spatial extent since 1992. Temporal EOF analysis provides a statistical basis for representing spatially abundant temporal patterns in the image time series as uncorrelated vectors of brightness as a function of time from 1992 to 2009. The variance partition of the eigenvalue spectrum combined with temporal structure of the EOFs and spatial structure of the PCs provides a basis for distinguishing between deterministic multi-year trends and stochastic year-to-year variance. The low order EOFs and principal components (PC) space together discriminate both earlier (1990s) and later (2000s) increases and decreases in brightness. Inverse transformation of these low order dimensions reduces stochastic variance sufficiently so that tri-temporal composites depict potentially deterministic decadal trends. The most pronounced changes occur in Asia. At critical brightness threshold we find an 18% increase in the number of spatially distinct lights and an 80% increase in lighted area in southern and eastern Asia between 1992 and 2009. During this time both China and India experienced a ∼20% increase in number of lights and a ∼270% increase in lighted area – although the timing of the increase is later in China than in India. Throughout Asia a variety of different patterns of brightness increase are apparent in tri-temporal brightness composites – as well as some conspicuous areas of apparently decreasing background luminance and, in many places, intermittent light suggesting development of infrastructure rather than persistently lighted development. Vicarious validation using higher resolution Landsat imagery verifies multiple phases of urban growth in several cities as well as the consistent presence of low DN (<∼15) background luminance for many agricultural areas. Lights also allow us to quantify changes in the size distribution and connectedness of different intensities of development. Over a wide range of brightnesses, the size distributions of spatially contiguous lighted area are consistent with power laws with exponents near −1 as predicted by Zipf's Law for cities. However, the larger lighted segments are much larger than individual cities; they correspond to vast spatial networks of contiguous development (Small et al., 2011).     

Characterizing wetland dynamics: a post-classification change detection analysis of the East Kolkata Wetlands using open source satellite data

The East Kolkata Wetlands is a unique resource recovery system. The Ramsar Convention recognized it as a ‘Wetland of International Importance’ in August 2002. However, the long-term resource exploitation and land use changes in the dynamic ecosystem have resulted in non-linear environmental responses. This is an attempt using open source remote sensing datasets to capture the spatio-temporal transformation of the wetland resulting from various anthropogenic activities. Landsat MSS and TM imageries of 1973, 1980, 1989, 2001 and 2010 were classified using Maximum Likelihood Classifier to monitor the wetland change; however, to study wetland dynamics, the post-classification wetland change detection maps have been generated for two temporal phases, i.e. 1973–1989 and 1989–2010. This study finds that the area under wetlands has reduced comprehensively in the past 40 years due to the conversion of wetlands into various other uses such as urban expansion of the Kolkata metropolitan city.     

集成Landsat OLI和机载LiDAR条带数据的亚热带森林生物量制图

以亚热带天然次生林为研究对象,借助一个条带的少量LiDAR点云数据和覆盖整个研究区的免费Landsat OLI多光谱数据,并结合地面实测数据,探索森林生物量低成本高精度制图方法。首先,提取了OLI和LiDAR特征变量,并与地上和地下生物量进行相关分析以筛选变量;然后,借助LiDAR数据覆盖区的样地和条带LiDAR数据构建"LiDAR生物量模型";再从LiDAR反演生物量的结果中进行采样,结合OLI特征变量构建"LiDAR-OLI模型";最后,与单独使用OLI多光谱数据建立的"OLI估算模型"结果进行比较,分析精度并验证新方法的效果。结果表明,"LiDAR-OLI模型"对地上和地下生物量的模型拟合效果较好且均优于"OLI模型",且其交叉验证的精度也较高并优于"OLI模型",从而证明了新方法的可靠性及有效性。本研究为主、被动遥感技术在中小尺度上协同反演森林参数提供了实验基础,也为基于全覆盖免费OLI多光谱数据及条带LiDAR数据的低成本森林生物量制图探索了技术路线。     

1961—1987年与1988—2014年辽宁省气候区划界线变化及可能气候成因

基于同一区划方法、指标体系,使用1961—2014年辽宁省52站气象观测资料,分析辽宁省气温、气候区划指标、范围及界线的变动特征。结果表明：辽宁省年均气温在1988年发生一次突变,突变后气温开始显著上升;≥10 ℃积温日数比较显著地响应气温突变,而干燥指数、7月平均气温变化不显著。在空间分布上区划指标值均存在不同程度的变化。① 全省≥10 ℃积温日数均出现增加,但在中西部地区显著增加;② 在盘锦-抚顺一线以北（南）,气候总体呈不显著变湿（干）趋势;③ 7月平均气温呈缓慢上升趋势。区划范围及界线位置出现更加显著地变化：① 暖温带范围主要向北向东扩展,中温带向东收缩;② 半湿润区范围主要向北向西扩展,半干旱区向西北方向收缩,湿润区范围基本不变;③ Tb范围显著向北向东扩展,Ta范围向北向东收缩。在此基础上分析了气候格局变化的可能气候成因,发现突变后≥10 ℃积温日数期间500 hPa高度场增加与4月和10月东亚冬季风减弱,4—10月东北冷涡持续天数增加和7月500 hPa高度场增加,可能分别是温度带,Tb区、Ta区和半湿润区、半干旱区变化的原因。     

云南省出口东盟的特征及其经济和就业贡献率分析

利用海关信息数据、统计年鉴数据、相关贸易指标以及投入产出方法分析云南省与东盟之间的出口贸易特征,出口带来的经济和就业贡献。结果表明：云南省与东盟之间的贸易依赖关系显著增强,但是与东盟联系强度的空间分布不均匀,同时云南对东盟的出口产品出现升级特征,由矿产品、化工产品为主的出口转向了以农产品、电子制造产品为主的出口。云南省出口东盟农林牧渔产品对本省经济和就业贡献率最大,对农林牧渔产品深加工,有助于云南省的经济增长和保障就业,同时也有助于促进产业发展向技术密集型产业转型。