基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.     

Influence of pore size and geometry on peat unsaturated hydraulic conductivity computed from 3D computed tomography image analysis

In organic soils, hydraulic conductivity is related to the degree of decomposition and soil compression, which reduce the effective pore diameter and consequently restrict water flow. This study investigates how the size distribution and geometry of air‐filled pores control the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of peat soils using high‐resolution (45 µm) three‐dimensional (3D) X‐ray computed tomography (CT) and digital image processing of four peat sub‐samples from varying depths under a constant soil water pressure head. Pore structure and configuration in peat were found to be irregular, with volume and cross‐sectional area showing fractal behaviour that suggests pores having smaller values of the fractal dimension in deeper, more decomposed peat, have higher tortuosity and lower connectivity, which influences hydraulic conductivity. The image analysis showed that the large reduction of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity with depth is essentially controlled by air‐filled pore hydraulic radius, tortuosity, air‐filled pore density and the fractal dimension due to degree of decomposition and compression of the organic matter. The comparisons between unsaturated hydraulic conductivity computed from the air‐filled pore size and geometric distribution showed satisfactory agreement with direct measurements using the permeameter method. This understanding is important in characterizing peat properties and its heterogeneity for monitoring the progress of complex flow processes at the field scale in peatlands. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

热解石墨坩埚的应用

本文介绍本院研制的热解石墨坩埚的特性和应用情况。该坩埚具有纯度高、致密、耐高温、耐强酸强碱腐蚀、易洗涤等特点,已广泛应用于矿物、建材、玻璃等方面试样的前处理。与铂、银、镍、刚玉、石英等坩埚比较,具有引入杂质少成本低等优点。     

北半球月平均环流异常垂直结构的综合分析

本文用一种时空综合的经验正交函数分析方法,对北半球100、500和700hPa三层月平均高度距平场进行展开,得到了不仅能反映各层高度距平场本身的空间结构分布特征,而且能同时反映各层高层距平场之间有机联系的特征向量场.分析结果表明:北半球月平均环流异常在垂直方向上具有明显的相当正压性结构特征.     

ENSO事件发展的时空特征

本文利用1951—1988年10°S—50°N太平洋SST资料与EOF分析方法对ENSO事件的发展过程与循环的时空特征进行了分析.分析结果表明EOF第一主分量时间系数的变化可以很好地表示SST距平变化与ENSO事件的发生.并且,第一主分量空间函数分布的变化揭示了一种ENSO事件增温是春季首先始于赤道东太平洋沿岸,随后向西传播到赤道中太平洋的增温过程;而第二主分量空间函数分布的变化揭示了另一种ENSO事件可增温首先始于赤道中太平洋,然后向东传播到赤道东太平洋的增温过程.分析结果还表明,ENSO事件的强度是强弱相间,其周期平均大约为4年左右. 本文还比较了80年代热带太平洋SST的变化及所发生的两次ENSO事件与其它年代所发生的ENSO事件的差别.     

EOF迭代方案恢复夏季大气环流场的试验

本文设计了一种恢复夏季大气环流场的EOF(经验正交函数)迭代方案,并利用1951～1984年中国夏季降水距平场和北半球500hPa夏季高度距平场作镢复试验,数值试验效果较好.此项工作表明:利用某些长时间序列的资料通过EOF迭代方案恢复历史时期大气环流是可行的.     

ELIMINATING COMPLEX EIGENVECTORS AND EIGENVALUES IN MULTIWAY ANALYSES USING THE DIRECT TRILINEAR DECOMPOSITION METHOD

The direct trilinear decomposition method(DTDM)is an algorithm for performing quantitative curveresolution of three-dimensional data that follow the so-called trilinear model,e.g.chromatography-spectroscopy or emission-excitation fluorescence.Under certain conditions complexeigenvalues and eigenvectors emerge when the generalized eigenproblem is solved in DTDM.Previouspublications never treated those cases.In this paper we show how similarity transformations can be usedto eliminate the imaginary part of the complex eigenvalues and eigenvectors,thereby increasing theusefulness of DTDM in practical applications.The similarity transformation technique was first used byour laboratory to solve the similar problem in the generalized rank annihilation method(GRAM).Because unique elution profiles and spectra can be derived by using data matrices from three or moresamples simultaneously,DTDM with similarity transformations is more efficient than GRAM in the casewhere there are many samples to be investigated.     

第二代航磁黄沙坪异常的分解及其矿产新空间

本文采用同时具有识別、分解、解释异常三重作用的三元解释法■,在黄沙坪异常负值区有效地提取了由未知的深源磁性体引起的剩余异常。该异常与已知的中、浅源磁性体分处于极为类同的成矿地质背景中。后者与隐伏岩体、铅锌多金属盲矿体之间有着密切的成生联系。这为前者间接找矿提供了有力的依据。定量解释结果中,两者间的磁矩等效关系,论证了已知矿床西侧深部空间里,仍存在找到又一个大型矿床的前景。