ENSO发展年与衰减年夏季环境要素对热带气旋生成频数变化的贡献

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)最佳路径数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA再分析资料,分析了El Ni?o-South Oscillation (ENSO)发展年与衰减年西北太平洋(Western North Pacific,WNP)夏季(6—8月)总TC生成频数(Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency,TCGF)及其区域性特征,通过潜在生成指数(Genesis Potential Index,GPI)定量诊断各环境要素对TCGF变化的贡献。结果表明,西北太平洋TCGF总数异常在ENSO各位相并不显著,但其东南象限和西部的TCGF异常存在明显差异。在ENSO各位相,GPI异常的空间分布与TCGF异常的空间型相似。同一区域,各环境要素对TCGF异常的贡献不同,反映了ENSO不同位相影响TC生成变化的机理存在差异。WNP东南部(SEWNP)是对ENSO较敏感的区域,El Ni?o发展年,中东太平洋异常增暖激发的Rossby波西传导致SEWNP受异常正涡度环流控制,涡度对TCGF增加的贡献最大;El Ni?o衰减年,西北太平洋出现低层异常反气旋,其东侧异常东北气流将湿度相对较低的水汽输送至SEWNP,相对湿度降低导致TCGF显著减少。La Ni?a发展年,绝对涡度减小和垂直风切变增加对TCGF减少都有影响。WNP西部仅在La Ni?a衰减年出现TCGF显著负异常,低层绝对涡度减小的贡献最大,因为季风槽减弱,抑制了南海附近的TC生成。      

A speleothem record of Holocene climate variability from southwestern Mexico

A paleoclimate reconstruction for the Holocene based upon variations of δ¹⁸O in a U-Th dated stalagmite from southwestern Mexico is presented. Our results indicate that the arrival of moisture to the area has been strongly linked to the input of glacial meltwaters into the North Atlantic throughout the Holocene. The record also suggests a complex interplay between Caribbean and Pacific moisture sources, modulated by the North Atlantic SST and the position of the ITCZ, where Pacific moisture becomes increasingly more influential through ENSO since ~ 4.3 ka. The interruption of stalagmite growth during the largest climatic anomalies of the Holocene (10.3 and 8.2 ka) is evidenced by the presence of hiatuses, which suggest a severe disruption in the arrival of moisture to the area. The δ¹⁸O record presented here has important implications for understanding the evolution of the North American Monsoon and climate in southwestern Mexico, as it represents one of the most detailed archives of climate variability for the area spanning most of the Holocene.     

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of chlorophyll in central western South China Sea extracted from SeaWiFS

Using 10-year (January 1998–October 2007) dataset of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), we extracted the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the chlorophyll distribution in the central western South China Sea (SCS) through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results show that the first EOF mode is characterized by a high chlorophyll concentration zone along the Vietnam coast. We found two peaks in summer (July–August) and in winter (December), respectively, in no...     

广东省森林火险等级的评价模式

利用美国ＮＯＡＡ－ＣＡＣ、夏威夷大学、中国气象局提供的热带太平洋海温，水位及风场资料和“ＴＯＧＡ－ＣＯＡＲＥ”（１９９２年１１月－１９９３年２月）提供的赤道西太平洋深层海温资料，对１９９３年全球大气及热带海洋异常状况作了诊断分析，认为１９９３年世界气象灾害频频发生的原因是：（１）大气环流的异常变化对１９９３年东传型ＥＮＳＯ事件的响应几乎同步。（２）１９９１、１９９３年两次东传型ＥＮＳＯ事件在短期内     

COMMENTS ON “AN APPARENT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HIMALAYAN SNOW COVER AND SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OVER INDIA”

The snow cover in central High Asia has been the focus of climatologists interests for manydecades.Earlier studies indicate that Himalayan snow cover has a significant effect on Indian monsoonrainfall,but it has relied on very limited snow cover data.In this paper,three complete High Asiansnow cover data sets are used.They consist of SMMR pentad snow depth maps covering the period1978—1987,operational NOAA weekly snow cover extent charts during the period between 1966—1989,and daily snow depth records at 60 primary weather stations over the 36-year period of 1957—1992.Unpervasive feature,dearth of snow mass in the vast interior,and limited portion affected bysubstantial interannual variability reveal that the High Asian snow cover itself could not greatly influ-ence the Indian monsoon rainfall.A simple approach of lead/lag relation between High Asian snowcover.Indian monsoon rainfall,and ENSO shows that snow cover is not a key variable influencingthe Indian monsoon.Further correlation calculation demonstrated that only a weak signal was foundbetween them.     

1991 年汛期旱涝类型的气候振动

1991年汛期我国旱涝的分布(江淮多雨、华北及江南少雨)与近五百年旱涝等级图 EOF展开的第三特征向量一致。通过对旱涝第三特征向量时间系数(1991年旱涝型指数)的分析,发现1991年旱涝型指数具有37年左右的布吕克纳周期,且与南方涛动指数的36.7年周期有关。还发现1991年旱涝型指数与全球温度的相关系数为0.41(P>0.001),与北太平洋海面温度场的相关分布则相似于厄尔尼诺时期海面温度距平场的分布,即在赤道东太平洋为正相关,在西风漂流区为负相关。因此1991年的旱涝分布,可能与旱涝型自身长期变化所处的阶段、全球气候的增暖、特别是与1991年处于 ENSO 事件的增强位相等气候背景有关。     

我国东部旱涝变化规律及其影响因子

根据近五百年旱涝等级和近40年500hPa 高度和太平洋海面温度资料,用 EOF 方法研究了中国东部各站汛期旱涝等级的时空分布及其所对应的环流和海温场特征.分析表明,各旱涝特征向量在环流和海温场上的差异,主要表现为从亚洲西风带到东亚副热带500hPa 高度距平的波列分布,以及与 ENSO 相联系的北太平洋海温距平场的特征.在时间变化方面则是各旱涝型均有37.8、23—26和17—19年周期,它们分别与南方涛动、太阳活动和月赤纬的变化周期相对应.     

1960-2016年秦岭—淮河地区热浪时空变化特征及其影响因素

基于134个气象站点1960-2016年逐日最高温和相对湿度数据,辅以趋势分析、空间分析和相关分析等方法,对秦岭—淮河地区热浪时空变化特征进行分析,探讨了赤道东太平洋海温异常与热浪变化的相关关系。结果表明：①近57年秦岭—淮河地区热浪呈现“非线性、非平稳和阶段性”的变化过程,年代变化可分为3个阶段：1960-1972年热浪呈现东西分异,分界线大致位于112°E,以东地区热浪异常偏多,以西地区则“高低交替”波动;1973-1993年热浪维持“低位波动”,并在20世纪80年代中期呈现快速增加;1994-2016年,关中平原、秦巴山区、巫山山区和四川盆地热浪维持“高位波动”,黄河下游、淮河平原和长江下游热浪则经历从“相对偏多”向“相对偏少”的转变;②在影响因素方面,最高温波动变化是秦岭—淮河地区热浪频次年代变化的主导因素,相对湿度变化的影响相对较弱;③近57年来关中平原热浪年代变化与赤道太平洋西部海温异常关系更为密切,长江流域与东部海温异常关系更为密切;对于黄河下游和秦巴山区的热浪变化与不同分区赤道太平洋海温异常关系均较弱。     

A CASE STUDY OF THE UNCORRELATED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TROPICAL TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND STRATOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR ANOMALIES

Using the measurements from the Halogen Occultation Experiment(HALOE) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) Interim reanalysis data for the period 1994-2005, we analyzed the relationship between tropical tropopause temperature anomalies and stratospheric water vapor anomalies. It is found that tropical tropopause temperature is correlated with stratospheric water vapor, i.e., an anomalously high(low) tropical tropopause temperature corresponds to anomalously high(low) stratospheric water vapor during the period 1994-2005,except for 1996. The occurrence frequency and strength of deep convective activity during the‘mismatched'months is less and weaker than that during the‘matched'months in 1996. However, the instantaneous intensity of four short periods of deep convective activity, caused by strong surface cyclones and high sea surface temperatures, are greater during the ‘mismatched'months than during the ‘matched'months. Water vapor is transported from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere through a strong tropical upwelling, leading to an increase in stratospheric water vapor. On the other hand, deep convective activity can lift the tropopause and cool its temperature. In short, the key factor responsible for the poor correlation between tropical tropopause temperature and stratospheric water vapor in1996 is the instantaneous strong deep convective activity. In addition, an anomalously strong Brewer-Dobson circulation brings more water vapor into the stratosphere during the‘mismatched'months in 1996, and this exacerbates the poor correlation between tropical tropopause temperature and stratospheric water vapor.     

夏季中国华北降水、印度降水与太平洋海表面温度的耦合关系

本文基于1951~2014年的站点观测资料以及再分析资料,应用多变量经验正交分解法（MEOF）研究了年际尺度上华北夏季降水、印度夏季降水与海表面温度之间的耦合关系（主要模态）。结果表明:当印度夏季降水偏强时,若同期夏季赤道中东太平洋海温表现为La Ni?a位相,则西太平洋暖池对流加强,副热带高压偏西偏北,有利于华北夏季降水与印度夏季降水一致增强。反之,当印度大部降水偏弱时,若同期夏季赤道中东太平洋海温表现为El Ni?o位相,则华北夏季降水和印度夏季降水一致减弱。然而,两地夏季降水的协同变化关系并不总是成立。当赤道中东太平洋海温异常随时间演变表现为冬春El Ni?o衰减型时,伴随着印度洋偶极子（IOD）正位相的衰减过程,这会减弱东亚夏季风,使得华北夏季降水偏少。此时印度半岛夏季降水增强区集中在其西部,无法形成连接印度和华北夏季降水异常的环半球遥相关（CGT）波列,可能使得华北夏季降水异常与全印度夏季降水异常成相反形势。这些结论揭示了中国华北夏季降水、印度夏季降水和海表面温度之间的耦合关系,有助于进一步理解海温外强迫对两地夏季降水之间相关关系的作用,从而对华北夏季降水的预测具有参考意义。