热带太平洋西风异常对ENSO事件发生的作用

本文从观测资料对80年代两次ENSO事件产生过程中，热带太平洋西风异常及其对赤道中、东太平洋表层海温增暖的作用进行了分析和比较。分析结果表明:在这两次ENSO事件的产生过程中，赤道西太平洋上空均有较大的西风异常，并且它由赤道西太平洋向赤道中、东太平洋传播，随着西风异常从西向东传播，赤道中、东太平洋的表层相继增温。分析还表明，1982／1983年ENSO事件发生过程中，热带太平洋西风异常的强度要比1986／1987年热带太平洋西风异常强得多，这使得1982／1983 ENSO事件的强度比1986／1987_ENSO事件强得多。为了说明热带西太平洋西风异常对赤道中、东太平洋ENSO事件发生的作用，本文还利用IAP太平洋环流模式对西风异常在ENSO事件产生过程中的作用进行了数值模拟。模拟的结果说明了热带太平洋的西风异常对赤道太平洋暖水的向东传播和赤道中、东太平洋的增温起了很重要作用，这与观测事实分析一致。     

ENSO 循环过程中逐月海温异常的合成分析

文章基于UK和MIT 1990年整编的12年（1968～1977年和1982～1983年）逐月5°×5°经纬网格点的海温（SST）距平资料，对其间发生的4次El Nino事件和3次La Nina事件作了逐月全球SST异常分布的合成分析。合成结果表明:在El Nino事件的形成阶段，赤道中太平洋存在明显的东传暖性低频扰动；而在La Nina事件的形成阶段，南北美沿岸有稳定增强的冷中心向西发展。     

石羊河流域干旱气候对ENSO事件的响应及预测分析

根据石羊河流域5个气象站1961—2018年的降水、气温、干旱实况资料,利用气候统计学方法分析ENSO事件对该区气候变化及干旱的影响。结果表明:厄尔尼诺事件会造成流域春季降水偏多,春、秋、冬季气温偏高,易出现暖冬;拉尼娜事件则春季降水偏少,秋季降水偏多,冬季气温偏低,易出现冷冬,中下游发生中度以上春旱、春末夏初旱和伏旱的概率较高。应用1968—2010年旬、月气象要素和大气环流特征量,采用最优子集回归方法,建立降水和干旱统计预测模式,然后结合ENSO事件,通过加权平均法构建集成预测概念模型。对模型进行检验,拟合率与准确率较高,已投入业务使用。     

DIAGNOSIS ON LOW FREQUENCY COMPONENT OF ENSO VARIABILITY—PART Ⅱ:ORIGIN OF THE COMPONENT

Diagnosis is undertaken on the origin for the low-frequency component (LFC) of ENSOvariability in the context of 1979—1990 OLR and u-wind datasets.Evidence suggests that ① apower spectrum-yielded maximum,significant statistically,is derived from the OLR monthlyanomalies in a 3—5-year period range over the tropical central/western Pacific;②compositeanalysis of the signals of the monthly anomaly low frequency component (period>3 years)confirms further the dynamic features of the component as documented in Part Ⅰ:③serving asforcing on ENSO,the related monsoon region represents the source area of the component;④theone-point correlation maps of unfiltered OLR monthly anomalies with zonal wind on a lagged,asimultaneous and a leading basis show clearly the close relation between the u wind-associatedeastward travelling low-frequency wave and the low-frequency oscillation of low-latitude central/western Pacific large-scale convection and the east-moving mode is likely to be excited by theoscillation at a 3—5-year period range.It follows that the large-scale convection oscillation showsup as the origin of the eastward waves,i.e.,ENSO LFC.     

A ∼6100 14C yr record of El Niño activity from the Galápagos Islands

Lithostratigrahic and mineralogic analyses of sediments from hypersaline Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos Islands, provide evidence of past El Niño frequency and intensity. Laminated sediments indicate that at least 435 moderate to very strong El Niño events have occurred since 6100 ¹⁴C yr BP (7130 cal yr BP), and that frequency and intensity of events increased at about 3000 ¹⁴C yr BP (3100 cal yr BP). El Niño activity was present between 6100 and 4000 ¹⁴C yr BP (4600 cal yr BP) but infrequent. The Bainbridge record indicates that there has been considerable millennial-scale variability in El Niño since the mid-Holocene.     

两类ENSO事件赤道太平洋次表层海温异常的演变特征

基于美国马里兰大学提供的海洋同化(SODA)月平均资料,用个例和合成分析方法,剖析了两类ENSO事件赤道太平洋海温异常演变特征。结果指出,东部型ENSO事件的初始海温异常源来自赤道西太平洋次表层,海温异常中心沿气候温跃层向东向上传送,至赤道东太平洋表层形成ENSO事件。东部型ENSO冷暖事件互为初始场,在形成某一位相的ENSO事件的过程中也同时为相反位相的ENSO事件准备条件。中部型ENSO事件的初始海温异常源出现在赤道中太平洋次表层,海温异常中心沿气候温跃层向东向上传送至赤道中东太平洋表层形成ENSO事件。中部型ENSO事件多在前次事件减弱中断后出现。     

RELATION BETWEEN SUMMER TYPHOON FREQUENCY ANOMALIES IN WEST PACIFIC AND ENSO EVENTS AND THE ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS

By using data of serially numbered typhoons in northwestern Pacific and NOAA OLR data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind field, based on the statistics and study of the relationship between the calendar years with more (or fewer) summer typhoons and ENSO events, we compared the composites of OLR eigenvectors and tropical summer wind fields during El Nino and La Nina events with more or fewer than normal summer typhoons, respectively. The results show that, in summer, without remarkable systematic anomalies of Mascarene High and Australia High in South Hemisphere, the anomaly of Walker circulation will dominate and follow the rule of ENSO impacts to atmospheric circulation and typhoon frequency. Otherwise, when systematic anomalies of Australia High appear during the El Nino events, circulation anomalies in the South Hemisphere will dominate, and many more typhoons will occur. In 1999, which is a special year of La Nina events, northward and eastward monsoon was induced by the stronger Mascarene High, and fewer typhoons arose. The typhoon source are regions where weak vertical wind shear, warm pool in western Pacific and the area with monsoon troughs are overlapping with each other. Finally, this paper analyzes and compares the source locations and ranges of more (fewer) typhoons in the events of El Nino and La Nina, respectively.     

东北夏季气温变异的区域差异及其与大气环流和海表温度的关系

利用1951～2000年中国东北地区23个台站资料，对东北夏季气温的时空分布进行了研究，发现其变化除具有整体的一致性外，东北南部和北部的夏季气温在年际和年代际时间尺度都表现出很大不同，其中北部区域的夏季气温在1987～1988年间发生了一次显著的气候突变. 另外，剔除夏季气温全区一致变化的年份后，南北两区夏季气温与大气环流和海表温度的关系表明：突变前，影响北部和南部冷/热夏季的大气环流形势存在显著的不同，关键海域亦有很大差异：影响南部的为中纬度西太平洋和印度洋部分海域，影响北部的主要为ENSO事件；突变后，两区的夏季气温及相应大气环流和关键海区都趋于一致. 在整个分析时段内，北部夏季气温与东亚夏季风存在显著负相关，而南部的关系则不明显.     

Dynamics of upper tropospheric stationary wave anomalies induced by ENSO during the northern summer: A GCM study

Ensemble seasonal integrations are carried out with the COLA GCM, with a view to understand the dynamical connection between warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean and the upper level stationary wave anomalies seen during drought years over the Indian summer monsoon region. In addition, experiments with and without orography are performed in order to examine the role of the Himalayas in modulating the El Niño induced stationary wave anomalies over the summer monsoon region. The GCM simulations show a statistically significant weakening of the summer monsoon activity over India in response to the SST forcing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This weakening of the summer monsoon appears to be largely related to modifications of the local Hadley and Walker cells over the summer monsoon region. In addition, it is seen that the anomalous ENSO divergent forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean can act as a potential source for Rossby wave dispersion. Here one finds the possibility of meridionally propagating Rossby waves, which emanate from the ENSO forcing region, to interact with the subtropical westerlies and generate anomalous highs and lows in the subtropics and extratropics. The quasi-stationary perturbations seen over west Asia, Pakistan and northwest India during drought years, seem to be generated by the above mechanism. An alternate mechanism that could be important for the persistence of the quasi-stationary perturbations seems to be based on the dynamic excitation of middle latitude normal modes which can extract energy from the zonally varying unstable basic flow. It is seen from the GCM simulations, that the Himalayan orography plays a crucial role in anchoring the El Niño induced extratropical westerly troughs far to the west in the high latitude belt. In the absence of orography it is seen that the ENSO induced extra-tropical cyclonic anomalies tend to intrude southward into the monsoon region thereby destroying the regional scale circulations completely. Another effect due to the Himalayas is to generate lee waves on the eastern side of the topographic barrier which encircle the globe in the subtropics and midlatitudes.     

赤道太平洋对流活动异常对我国夏季降水和气温的影响

利用月平均ＯＬＲ、降水和气温资料,研究了ＥＮＳＯ期间赤道太平洋对流活动与我国夏季降水和气温的关系。结果表明：春季、夏季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国夏季江淮地区的降水有密切关系;春季和前一年冬季西太平洋对流活动异常与东北地区夏季降水有显著相关。前一年冬季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国降水的显著相关区是不同的,前者为华南、西南地区,后者为东北至内蒙古一带。气温与同期中、西太平洋对流活动的相关不显著。