两类ENSO事件赤道太平洋次表层海温异常的演变特征

基于美国马里兰大学提供的海洋同化(SODA)月平均资料,用个例和合成分析方法,剖析了两类ENSO事件赤道太平洋海温异常演变特征。结果指出,东部型ENSO事件的初始海温异常源来自赤道西太平洋次表层,海温异常中心沿气候温跃层向东向上传送,至赤道东太平洋表层形成ENSO事件。东部型ENSO冷暖事件互为初始场,在形成某一位相的ENSO事件的过程中也同时为相反位相的ENSO事件准备条件。中部型ENSO事件的初始海温异常源出现在赤道中太平洋次表层,海温异常中心沿气候温跃层向东向上传送至赤道中东太平洋表层形成ENSO事件。中部型ENSO事件多在前次事件减弱中断后出现。     

东北夏季气温变异的区域差异及其与大气环流和海表温度的关系

利用1951～2000年中国东北地区23个台站资料，对东北夏季气温的时空分布进行了研究，发现其变化除具有整体的一致性外，东北南部和北部的夏季气温在年际和年代际时间尺度都表现出很大不同，其中北部区域的夏季气温在1987～1988年间发生了一次显著的气候突变. 另外，剔除夏季气温全区一致变化的年份后，南北两区夏季气温与大气环流和海表温度的关系表明：突变前，影响北部和南部冷/热夏季的大气环流形势存在显著的不同，关键海域亦有很大差异：影响南部的为中纬度西太平洋和印度洋部分海域，影响北部的主要为ENSO事件；突变后，两区的夏季气温及相应大气环流和关键海区都趋于一致. 在整个分析时段内，北部夏季气温与东亚夏季风存在显著负相关，而南部的关系则不明显.     

Dynamics of upper tropospheric stationary wave anomalies induced by ENSO during the northern summer: A GCM study

Ensemble seasonal integrations are carried out with the COLA GCM, with a view to understand the dynamical connection between warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean and the upper level stationary wave anomalies seen during drought years over the Indian summer monsoon region. In addition, experiments with and without orography are performed in order to examine the role of the Himalayas in modulating the El Niño induced stationary wave anomalies over the summer monsoon region. The GCM simulations show a statistically significant weakening of the summer monsoon activity over India in response to the SST forcing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This weakening of the summer monsoon appears to be largely related to modifications of the local Hadley and Walker cells over the summer monsoon region. In addition, it is seen that the anomalous ENSO divergent forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean can act as a potential source for Rossby wave dispersion. Here one finds the possibility of meridionally propagating Rossby waves, which emanate from the ENSO forcing region, to interact with the subtropical westerlies and generate anomalous highs and lows in the subtropics and extratropics. The quasi-stationary perturbations seen over west Asia, Pakistan and northwest India during drought years, seem to be generated by the above mechanism. An alternate mechanism that could be important for the persistence of the quasi-stationary perturbations seems to be based on the dynamic excitation of middle latitude normal modes which can extract energy from the zonally varying unstable basic flow. It is seen from the GCM simulations, that the Himalayan orography plays a crucial role in anchoring the El Niño induced extratropical westerly troughs far to the west in the high latitude belt. In the absence of orography it is seen that the ENSO induced extra-tropical cyclonic anomalies tend to intrude southward into the monsoon region thereby destroying the regional scale circulations completely. Another effect due to the Himalayas is to generate lee waves on the eastern side of the topographic barrier which encircle the globe in the subtropics and midlatitudes.     

赤道太平洋对流活动异常对我国夏季降水和气温的影响

利用月平均ＯＬＲ、降水和气温资料,研究了ＥＮＳＯ期间赤道太平洋对流活动与我国夏季降水和气温的关系。结果表明：春季、夏季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国夏季江淮地区的降水有密切关系;春季和前一年冬季西太平洋对流活动异常与东北地区夏季降水有显著相关。前一年冬季中、西太平洋对流活动异常与我国降水的显著相关区是不同的,前者为华南、西南地区,后者为东北至内蒙古一带。气温与同期中、西太平洋对流活动的相关不显著。     

1873—1996年东亚冬,夏季风强度指数及其主要特征

用１８７３￣１９９６年／１９９７年资料,延长计算了东亚冬夏季风强度指数,研究了指数的年际及年代际变化的主要特征。指出该指数与我国的冬、夏季天气的年际变化、年代际变化关系密切。还指出,该指数与印度季风强度正相关,并且能解释季风的准两年振荡。     

1997年的强ENSO事件

根据目前的海洋－大气资料,对普遍关注的１９９７年３月在热带太平洋开始形成的一次新的强ＥＮＳＯ事件进行了诊断研究,结果表明：赤道中、东太平洋大范围持续增温１－４℃、热带印度海洋温也同步增暖。ＳＯＩ持续异常低值,但还不及１９８２／１９９３年的工。赤道太平洋对流层低层信风异常减弱,高层东风加强。ＯＬＲ低值中心和最大负距平中心东移,赤道中太平洋对流活动加强。环太平洋沿岸热带地区出现明显旱涝异常。此次ＥＮＳ     

1873～1996年东亚冬、夏季风强度指数及其主要特征

用1873～1996/1997年资料,延长计算了东亚冬夏季风强度指数,研究了指数的年际及年代际变化的主要特征。指出该指数与我国的冬、夏季天气的年际变化、年代际变化关系密切。还指出,该指数与印度季风强度正相关,并且能解释季风的准两年振荡。     

Discharge and suspended sediment transport in the Ayeyarwady River,Myanmar: centennial and decadal changes

Among the large rivers rising on the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent high mountains, the discharge and suspended sediment load of the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) River are the least well known. Data collected between 1969 and 1996 at Pyay (Prome) are analysed to provide the best available modern estimate of discharge (379 ± 47 × 10⁹ m³/year) and suspended sediment load (325 ± 57 × 10⁶ t/year) for the river upstream of the delta head. A statistical comparison with data collected in the nineteenth century (1871 to 1879) shows discharge has significantly decreased in the last ～100 years. Regression and correlation analyses between discharge in the modern period and indices of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show a relationship. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea and its response to ENSO

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.     

在Zebiak-Cane模式中观测MJO强迫对ENSO可预报性的影响, 第1部分:对最大预报误差的影响

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as external forcing on El Ni(n)o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability is studied. The obs...