青岛旅游商品开发的回顾与前瞻

青岛旅游商品开发拥有辉煌历史，曾经领导全国消费潮流。但从旅游经济产业结构来看，青岛旅游商品开发存在如下问题：缺乏品牌和特色商品，小规模开发与经营，品种和质量有待加强，流通渠道不畅，购物环境不理想和商品的旅游后影响力不强等。提出相应开发对策；政府宏观指导，名企参与开发，丰富品种和特色，完善购物环境，使物流渠道畅通，将市场分类分层，利用节庆造势，周边联合连动和形成购物胜地。     

南海波高熵和风速熵

根据风速的统计分布，给出了有因次风速熵和无因次风速熵的定义及其计算方法，使用ＧＥＯＳＡＴ高度计１９８６年１１月－１９８９年２月的有效波高和风速的资料，计算，分析了南海海域上的波高熵，风速熵，给出它们的时间变化特征和空间变化特征，并对不同随机量的无因次熵，即随机度进行了比较。     

东海南海交接带重磁场特征及新生代盆地成因

东海南海构造交接带及其邻近海区(简称交接带)位于中国东部大陆边缘,东邻俯冲板块边界。台湾以北是琉球海沟俯冲带,台湾以南为马尼拉海沟俯冲构造带。区域重磁资料分析结果表明,该东海陆架区存在3条重力高和2条重力低,重力高分别对应于闽浙隆起带、渔山低凸起和陆架外缘隆起,最大值高达50×10-5m·s-2;重力低对应于沉积盆地,最低值在台西南盆地,约为-20×10-5m·s-2。重磁特征表明东海盆地外缘台湾 钓鱼岛构造带具有明显的自由空间异常,磁场为平缓负异常,由古近系、白垩系或更老的变质岩及中新世的侵入岩组成,向南延伸至澎湖隆起。因为澎湖隆起具有高重力异常,放射性年龄表明这些碱性玄武岩形成于17 8～8MaBP,其特征同现在的琉球岛弧一样,可能是残留的古琉球岛弧。台西南盆地南侧(上陆坡)的凸起具有类似的幅度异常,呈ENE—WSW向,并消失在台西南盆地南段。新生代以来,盆地张裂活动具有不同时性,并向陆架边缘变得年轻。东海大陆边缘盆地属弧后残留盆地成因,多因岛弧的迁移而新生,但珠江口盆地则是被动大陆边缘裂陷作用所致。     

东中国海环流及其季节变化的数值模拟

关于东中国海环流的研究，国内外学者已做了大量的工作。早期科学家们主要依赖于对温盐资料和少数测流资料的分析研究对渤、黄、东海的环流结构有了较系统和深入的认识。东中国海环流是由一个气旋式的“流涡”组成，东侧主要是北上的黑潮-对马暖流-黄海暖流及其延伸部分；西侧为南下的沿岸流系。黑潮对东中国海环流的影响是如此之大，以致于除了某些局部区域外，上述海域主要流系的冬、夏季分布形式比较相似而无本质上的差异(胡敦欣等，1993)。但本文所研究海域正处于世界上最显著的季风区，冬、夏季盛行风向基本相反，过渡季节(春、秋季)风向多变，风力减弱；海洋热盐结构季节变化明显(如冬季混合强，而夏季层化明显等)，这些因素都使得东中国海环流存在着较明显的季节变化。 自20世纪80年代以来，东中国海环流的数值模拟工作逐步展开，并已成为研究环流结构及其形成机制的强有力工具。但由于数值模式本身以及计算方案的缺陷(如有些学者用固定的风场、温盐场对东中国海环流进行诊断模拟等)和观测资料的不足，数值模拟的结果难以得到验证，渤、黄、东海的环流研究中仍有大量的问题存在争议，以待澄清。例如，台湾暖流的来源、流径;对马暖流的来源;夏季黄海暖流的流径以及黄海冷水团环流等均有不同的论述。对黄、东海环流季节变化的数值模拟工作也较少，多用冬、夏典型月份的风场强迫积分至稳定态，给出冬、夏季环流，这种做法值得商榷。三维环流模式很难在1个月内达到稳定态，尤其是夏季层化明显、风力减弱的情况下，非常定风场的影响更应引起人们的重视。 本文采用比较符合实际的计算方案，用年循环风场和海面热通量场为外强迫，对渤、黄、东海的环流及其季节变化进行了模拟，并对一些争议问题进行了探讨。     

港口靠船桩工作性状计算的双参数法

港口靠船桩是承受重复性荷载或多循环荷载的一种横向承载桩。双参数法能较好地描述靠船桩 (单桩、群桩 )的桩土工作性状。用双参数法进行计算时 ,所给的地面条件必须由重复荷载或多循环荷载作用下实测出来。根据现场试桩资料 ,标定桩土参数 ,即k =mx1/n的指数l/n、桩土相对柔度系数α、桩土综合刚度EI等值 ,可以用来设计试桩附近局部地区同类条件下的其它长桩。对于没有进行试桩的某些工程 ,可以联合运用双参数法和p -y曲线法进行桩的分析     

The CANALES experiment (1996-1998). Interannual, seasonal, and mesoscale variability of the circulation in the Balearic Channels

Repeated hydrographic casts, mooring time series and satellite sea surface temperature collected during the CANALES experiment (1996–98) are used to describe the thermohaline circulation in the Balearic Channels (western Mediterranean) and to analyze its variability. Mass transports are estimated by inverse calculations. The role played by each channel in the meridional water exchange is clarified: the Ibiza Channel funnels southward cool, saline, northern waters whereas the Mallorca Channel appears as the preferred route for the northward progression of warm, fresh, southern waters. A neat interannual trend is revealed by the continuous decrease of the amount of Western Mediterranean Intermediate Waters (WIW) brought by the Northern Current, reflecting the increase in temperature of the winter mixed layer in the northern Mediterranean that occurred each year between 1996 and 1998. A clear seasonal signal was also seen in the transport of the Northern Current which decreased from 1 to 1.4 Sv in winter to < 0.5 Sv in summer. The current intensified again in fall. A number of mesoscale eddies, from 20 to 70 km in size, most of them anticyclonic vortex eddies were brought by the unstable Northern Current, these eddies strongly perturbed the water exchange in the Ibiza Channel forcing retroflections of northern waters back to the north-east into the Balearic Current. These eddies either stayed stalled for several months in the Gulf of Valencia to the north of the channel, or were slowly funnelled southward through the channel narrows. A decreasing trend was observed in the mesoscale activity of the Northern Current between 1996 and 1998. Conversely, large, anticyclonic eddies, 150-km diameter, progressively invaded the Algerian Basin to the south of the channels in 1997–98 and forcing northward inflows (up to 0.75 Sv) of fresh and warm waters of Atlantic origin (AW) into the Mallorca Channel. The marked interannual differences observed in both northern and southern eddy activity may be linked to the interannual variability of the large scale thermohaline circulation.     

Seasonal and annual variations of marine sinking particulate flux during 1993~1996 in the central South China Sea

A total of 67 samples from the upper and lower sediment traps in the central South China Sea were analyzed, which were collected during 1993~1996. It is indicated that the distribution of stable isotope values, surface primary productivity, fluxes of total particulate matter, carbonate, biogenic opal, organic carbon, planktonic foraminiferal species and their total amount exhibit obviously seasonal and annual fluctuations. High values of the fluxes occurred in the prevailing periods of the northeastern and southwestern monsoons, and the low values occurred during the periods between the two monsoons. The fluxes of some planktonic foraminiferal species (Globigerinoides sacculifer, G. ruber, Globigerinita glutinata, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei) and their percentages also exhibit two prominent peaks during the prevailing periods of the northeastern and southwestern monsoons respectively, while those of Globigerina bulloides, Globorotalia menardii and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata only exhibit one peak in the prevailing periods of the northeastern monsoon. In addition, fluxes and percentages of Globigerinoides sacculifer and Globorotalia menardii as well as the fluxes of carbonate and total amount of planktonic foraminifera decrease gradually from 1993 to 1996, and those of Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinita glutinata and biogenic opal increase gradually from 1993 to 1996. The fluxes of carbonate and organic carbon in the upper trap are higher than those in the lower one. The study indicates that the seasonal and annual variations of the sediment fluxes and planktonic foraminiferal species are mainly controlled by the changes of surface primary productivity and hydrological conditions related to the East Asian monsoon. The lower carbonate and organic carbon fluxes in the lower trap are related to the dissolution.     

东海浮游翼足类(Pteropods)数量分布的研究

根据1997～2000年东海海域23°30'～33°00'N,118°30'～128°00'E的4个季节海洋调查资料,运用定量、定性方法,探讨了东海浮游翼足类总丰度的平面分布、季节变化及变化的动力学机制.结果表明,东海翼足类总丰度和出现频率有明显的季节变化,均为秋季最高,夏季次之,春季最低;总丰度在各个季节基本上呈东海南部高于北部、外海高于近海的分布趋势;春季的尖笔帽螺(Creseis acicula)、夏季的锥笔帽螺(Creseis virgula)、秋季的蝴蝶螺(Desmopterus papilio)和冬季的马蹄螔螺(Limacina trochiformis)是导致总丰度季节变化的最主要的种类;冬、春和夏3个季节丰度变化及4季总丰度的变化同表层或10m层水温有非常显著的线性相关关系,与底层温度及盐度的相关关系不显著.夏季翼足类高丰度区位于台湾暖流与黑潮暖流的分支处;从夏季到秋季,翼足类随着台湾暖流向北扩展,并在与长江冲淡水,闽浙沿岸水团,黄海水团等交汇处形成高丰度(大于500×10-2个/m3)和较高丰度(250×10-2～500×10-2个/m3)分布区.水温和海流是影响东海翼足类总丰度分布的主要环境因素.     

Recovery of thermohaline circulation under CO2 stabilization and overshoot scenarios

In this study we examine the behavior of the thermohaline circulation, as simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), for several centuries following CO₂ stabilization for the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios and for an “overshoot” scenario in which CO₂ levels temporarily reach the same level as in the A1B scenario before declining to an ultimate stabilization level that is identical to the B1 case. While we find no evidence for irreversible changes of the thermohaline circulation in the overshoot experiment, the interplay of the different timescales of the temperature response of the surface and interior ocean does lead to a number of differences in the long-term response of the ocean between it and the B1 stabilization scenario where the same GHG levels are approached by different paths. The stronger initial warming and its slow penetration into the deeper ocean, followed by a transient surface cooling in the overshoot scenario leads to lower static stability, deeper mixing, and a more rapid recovery of the thermohaline circulation than in the B1 stabilization scenario. While the overshoot scenario recovers surface conditions (e.g. SST, sea ice extent) very similar to the B1 scenario shortly after reaching the same GHG levels, the additional accumulation of heat in the interior ocean during the period of higher forcing causes the global mean ocean temperature and steric sea level to remain higher than in the B1 stabilization scenario for at least another several centuries.     

Roles of Continental Shelves and Marginal Seas in the Biogeochemical Cycles of the North Pacific Ocean

Most marginal seas in the North Pacific are fed by nutrients supported mainly by upwelling and many are undersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO₂ in the surface water mainly as a result of the biological pump and winter cooling. These seas absorb CO₂ at an average rate of 1.1 ± 0.3 mol C m⁻²yr⁻¹ but release N₂/N₂O at an average rate of 0.07 ± 0.03 mol N m⁻²yr⁻¹. Most of primary production, however, is regenerated on the shelves, and only less than 15% is transported to the open oceans as dissolved and particulate organic carbon (POC) with a small amount of POC deposited in the sediments. It is estimated that seawater in the marginal seas in the North Pacific alone may have taken up 1.6 ± 0.3 Gt (10¹⁵ g) of excess carbon, including 0.21 ± 0.05 Gt for the Bering Sea, 0.18 ± 0.08 Gt for the Okhotsk Sea; 0.31 ± 0.05 Gt for the Japan/East Sea; 0.07 ± 0.02 Gt for the East China and Yellow Seas; 0.80 ± 0.15 Gt for the South China Sea; and 0.015 ± 0.005 Gt for the Gulf of California. More importantly, high latitude marginal seas such as the Bering and Okhotsk Seas may act as conveyer belts in exporting 0.1 ± 0.08 Gt C anthropogenic, excess CO₂ into the North Pacific Intermediate Water per year. The upward migration of calcite and aragonite saturation horizons due to the penetration of excess CO₂ may also make the shelf deposits on the Bering and Okhotsk Seas more susceptible to dissolution, which would then neutralize excess CO₂ in the near future. Further, because most nutrients come from upwelling, increased water consumption on land and damming of major rivers may reduce freshwater output and the buoyancy effect on the shelves. As a result, upwelling, nutrient input and biological productivity may all be reduced in the future. As a final note, the Japan/East Sea has started to show responses to global warming. Warmer surface layer has reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich subsurface water, resulting in a decline of spring phytoplankton biomass. Less bottom water formation because of less winter cooling may lead to the disappearance of the bottom water as early as 2040. Or else, an anoxic condition may form as early as 2200 AD. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.