采场顶板稳定性动态预测及控制研究

运用人工神经网络技术,综合岩石介质条件、赋存环境条件以及工程因素3大方面的5个指标,即岩石单轴抗压强度、岩石质量指标、煤体强度、地下水状况、工作面月推进速度,建立了采场顶板稳定性动态预测模型。并以工作面月推进速度40m、60m、80m、100m分别预测了新集井田顶板稳定性分区。根据5个指标因素分析结果,对顶板稳定性影响程度由大到小排序为岩石质量指标、地下水状况、岩石单轴抗压强度、煤体强度、工作面月推进速度。     

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.     

初值中云变量对T213预报性能的影响

采用云变量自由变化的方案,在国家气象中心全球业务模式T213L31的初始场中增加有关云变量的信息,通过2005年6—8月和2015年12月—2006年2月各3个月的连续滚动对比试验的统计分析和个例预报分析,研究探讨了全球模式初值中增加云变量对模式预报性能的影响。初步研究结果表明：采用自由变化的方案在初值场中增加云的信息,使模式能够较为合理地描述出模式预报初期与云相关变量分布和变化特征,降低了spin-up现象对模式前期降水预报能力的影响,同时对500 hPa形势场预报也有一定程度提高。     

物理初值化在台风数值天气预报中的应用试验

根据P.R.Julian(1984)的物理初值化方法,利用有限区数值预报模式,针对台风系统的预报做了物理初值化试验。结果表明,物理初值化不但可以改善台风、低压和副高区域的初始流场形势以及初始降水率,而且可以改善台风强度的发展变化过程和路径的预报,是一种有效可行的方法。     

湖北枣阳大阜山镁铁/超镁铁杂岩体与金红石矿床成因

湖北省北部枣阳市境内的大阜山镁铁/超镁铁杂岩体主要由未变质的纯橄岩和橄长岩组成,伴生变质的石榴石角闪石岩、石榴石钠黝帘石角闪石岩和角闪石钠黝帘石岩.杂岩体的围岩为大理岩.该岩体中的金红石矿床产于变质的石榴石角闪石岩或蚀变的石榴石角闪石岩中.橄长岩中锆石SHRIMP U-Pb同位素定年结果表明镁铁/超镁铁质岩体的成岩年龄约为600Ma.变质的岩石和未变质的岩石几乎具有完全相同的地球化学特征,表明前者的原岩应为橄长岩,整个岩体是一个分异的镁铁/超镁铁侵入体.金红石赋存于角闪石解理中等岩相特征表明矿床的含矿岩石就是石榴石角闪石岩,不是由石榴石辉石岩退变质形成的;且其中的石榴石为钙铁榴石,不是富镁、富铝的与高压/超高压作用有关的石榴石.金红石矿床的形成和岩体的局部变质应该与由北向南的近水平推覆构造有关,动力变质作用提供的热和流体,结合推覆过程中的变形作用,导致围岩大理岩和镁铁质岩体发生交代作用,形成石榴石角闪石岩和金红石矿床.     

随机动力模式中误差对气候预报的影响

本文采用时间平均的矩方程随机动力气候模式,对大尺度大气系统的演化情况进行了计算,其中考虑了初始条件的误差和外部非绝热加热的误差对系统稳定性的影响,并比较了它们的相对重要性。同时,此结果又与以随机试验得到的结果进行了比较,积分两个月的结论是:矩方法在本模式中可以近似代替随机试验,初始条件的误差对系统稳定性的影响较外部加热的误差的影响要大。     

Dynamical friction on a satellite of a disk galaxy: The circular orbit

In a previous paper, we have studied dynamical friction during a parabolic passage of a companion galaxy past a disk galaxy. This paper continues with the study of satellites in circular orbits around the disk galaxy. Simulations of orbit decay in a self gravitating disk are compared with estimates based on two-body scattering theories; the theories are found to give a satisfactory explanation of the orbital changes. The disk friction is strongly dependent on the sense of rotation of the companion relative to the rotation of the disk galaxy as well as on the amount of mass in a spherical halo. The greatest amount of dynamical friction occurs in direct motion if no spherical halo is present. Then the infall time from the edge of the disk is about one half of the orbital period of the disk edge. A halo twice as massive as the disk increases the infall time four fold. The results of Quinn and Goodman, obtained with a non-self-gravitating method, agree well with our experiments with massive halos (Q ₀ 1.5), but are not usable in a more general case. We give analytic expressions for calculating the disk friction in galaxies of different disk/halo mass ratios.     

从初始化中排除潮汐信号方案在全球模式中的应用

对国家气象中心全球预报模式T106L19原有的标准非绝热正规模初始化方案要求外强迫是准静止这一假定进行了修正,将潮汐信号在初始化条件中适当地表达出来并将其从中排除。与三维变分分析SSI的联接对比试验表明,修正潮汐信号后的新方案在消除高频重力波振荡方面与标准初始化方案有同样的效果,但该方案较标准初始化更好地捕捉住了地面气压的半日变化,更接近于未经初始化的分析场。模式7天预报500hPa高度场与分析场的对比检验表明,新方案的距平相关系数和均方根误差都较原方案有明显的改进。     

T639全球模式的台风初始化方案升级试验

由于洋面上缺少有效的台风观测资料,台风初始化对全球数值预报业务模式而言,仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。国家气象中心自从2009年将T639全球数值预报系统投入业务运行以来,应用了一套完整可行的台风初始化方案,其技术路线是在台风刚发生时的预报时刻,在背景场嵌入人造bogus涡旋;而在后续的循环滚动预报时刻,采取涡旋重定位和涡旋调整技术方案;因此,第一个预报时刻的涡旋形成技术直接影响到后续时刻的台风涡旋质量乃至预报效果。但是,人造bogus涡旋主要依据统计的经验模型建立,其结构与全球数值模式的动力学、物理学属性并不匹配。基于国家气象中心T639全球资料分析同化-预报循环系统,一套升级版的台风初始化方案被发展了起来,与业务方案的主要区别在于升级方案利用资料同化技术来形成初始涡旋而不是直接嵌入人造bogus涡旋;这在很大程度上减少了人为主观因素对台风初始结构的影响,而更多地是依靠变分资料同化来协调约束产生三维空间的涡旋环流,这样产生的涡旋环流不但与周围环境场比较协调,而且与模式的动力学、物理学属性也比较匹配。应用新方案,本文对生成于西北太平洋2011-2012年27个台风进行了数值试验,初步分析表明,新方案在实现台风初始涡旋环流结构方面有着不错的表现,相比于业务使用的方案而言,新方案台风路径平均预报误差有了不错幅度的降低,2~5 d预报平均路径误差普遍降低了3%~15%。     

Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water–groundwater model

Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence on subsequent simulations. A key challenge in model initialization is that it requires spatially distributed information on model states, groundwater levels and soil moisture, even when such data are not routinely available. Here, the impact of uncertainty in initial condition was explored across a 208 km² catchment in Denmark using the ParFlow.CLM model. The initialization impact was assessed under two meteorological conditions (wet vs dry) using five depth to water table and soil moisture distributions obtained from various equilibrium states (thermal, root zone, discharge, saturated and unsaturated zone equilibrium) during the model spin‐up. Each of these equilibrium states correspond to varying computation times to achieve stability in a particular aspect of the system state. Results identified particular sensitivity in modelled recharge and stream flow to the different initializations, but reduced sensitivity in modelled energy fluxes. Analysis also suggests that to simulate a year that is wetter than the spin‐up period, an initialization based on discharge equilibrium is adequate to capture the direction and magnitude of surface water–groundwater exchanges. For a drier or hydrologically similar year to the spin‐up period, an initialization based on groundwater equilibrium is required. Variability of monthly subsurface storage changes and discharge bias at the scale of a hydrological event show that the initialization impacts do not diminish as the simulations progress, highlighting the importance of robust and accurate initialization in capturing surface water–groundwater dynamics. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.