测量地应力的新方法

论述了用赤平投影学方法分析确定地应力的主方向，用Kaiser效应测量地应力大小。将两者有机结合起来可以克服Kaiser效应测量地应力时，主应力方向难以确定的最大缺点。通过和传统现场地应力测量方法比较，表明该法具有更为简单，更为经济，准确度高等优点，便于大量测量，以寻求工程地区地应力变化规律。     

沙尘暴天气的归类判别分析预报模式

在大量分析了历史上 4 0年发生在内蒙古中西部地区的 37场沙尘暴天气过程的基础上 ,总结归纳了其大气环流特征 ,将他们划分成 4个环流类型。参考SaatyT .L .,提出的综合选优的方法[1] ,建立判别矩阵 ,然后计算归类判别预报 ,根据判别函数值判断实时待判样本的归属。参照归属类历史沙尘暴的天气形势和实况出现的范围以及强度作出沙尘暴天气预报 ,并设计了一个沙尘暴天气的归类判别分析预报模式。该模式已较成功地应用于 2 0 0 0年春季内蒙古地区的沙尘暴天气预报业务中 ,取得了较好的预报效果。实践证明 ,它是一个客观化、定量化和计算自动化的实用的预报模式 ,是我们目前作沙尘暴预报的重要技术手段之一。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC METHANE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 150 YEARS*

A global two-dimensional chemistry model is developed to study long-term trends of CH₄ since industrial revolution.The sources of CH₄,CO and NO_x are parameterized as functions of latitude and time.With two long-term emission scenarios,long-term trends of CH₄ are simulated.The results have a good agreement with observation from ice cores.The modeled CH₄ increased from 760 ppbv in 1840 to 1611.9 ppbv in 1991, while the modeled number concentration of tropospheric OH decreased from 7.17×10⁵ cm^-3 in 1840 to 5.79×10⁵ cm^-3 in 1991.The increase of atmospheric CH₄ can be explained by the increase of emission of CH₄ and build-up because of decrease of OH radicals that remove CH₄ from the atmosphere.The model is also used to simulate the distribution of CH₄.Comparisons between the model results and observations show that the model can simulate both latitudinal distribution and seasonal variation of CH₄ well.     

预破裂中声波信号参数特性

通过对岩石样品进行变形及破坏试验，研究断裂形成过程中的声发射记录（ＡＥ），以找到能解释地震前兆现象的方法．另外，对试验过程中获得的大量数据及资料进行了数理统计处理．     

Geometrical textures of faults，evolution of physical field and instability characteristics

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甘肃河东地区降雨特征分析研究

用甘肃河东地区19个气象站近15年雨量自记资料,分析了该区6月～9月各降雨持续时间和降雨强度下的雨量及其出现次数的分布特征,并初步分析了持续时间和雨强对雨量的综合作用。     

岩石蠕变破坏实验研究及其对地震预报的意义

通过对不同温度和围压条件下济南辉长岩的蠕变破坏实验结果和声发射特征分析,本文提出以岩石蠕变破坏应变做为岩石蠕变破坏判据。建立了岩石蠕变破坏应变的经验关系式。依据实验结果得到相应的济南辉长岩蠕变破坏应变参数,进一步探讨了预报岩石蠕变破坏和地震的方法     

The experimental study of acoustic emission during creep of rocks

Under normal temperature, the creep experiments with complete samples of Gabbro and Marble rocks are made under uniaxial compression. It is found that at the instantaneous creeping stage, AE activities increase with loading; at the steady creeping stage, large AE signals may appear at lower background of AE action, andm—value which shows the relationship between AE amplitude and frequency keeps stable on the low value or decreases; at the accelerate creeping stage, AE activities increase andm—value decreases quickly or decreases again after recovery. These experimental results are related to the quality of the samples. In this paper, AE activities during three stages of creeping process are connected with the seismic patterns (for exampleb—value, foreshocks). Finally, it is pointed out the possibility that the foreshock—mainshock—aftershock earthquake sequence has been formed by the mechanism of creep fracture of crustal rocks. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 104–112, 1991. This subject is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

A data collection and analysis system for research on rock fracturing

We have made a data collection and analysis system for recording microcracks in rock to study the three dimensional pattern of fracture and the dynamic properties of rock during pressurization. This system, with 8 channel data detection, records in real-time, from the initial microcracks to the final vibration waveform excited by the master fracture. The detected data are recorded digitally at the hard disk of an IBM computer (or 286, 386 personal computer) as well as transmitted to disk. The sampling rate for each channel is 10 MHz. Collecting every acoustic emission events in the loaded rock sample with 8 channels by this system, mathematically modelling the AE event travel time, and taking the coordinates of the AE event hypocenter and the three components of P wave velocity as unknown parameters, we set up a set of residual equations for joint inversion, so that the three dimensional localization of AE event hypocenters can be completed under variable velocities, which will lay foundations for the research on rock fracture clearly. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismological Sinica,13, 489–495, 1991. The design and development of the system, and the experiments are sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

The experimental research on b value of AE for the rock specimens with pre-existing crack or notch under uniaxial compression

A lot of researches onb value have been made in seismology. Since the 1960’s Mogi, Scholz and others have studied AE of rock specimens in laboratory and discovered that it is related to natural earthquakes. All former researchers used integral specimens to studyb value in the laboratory. However a major earthquake is usually related to a existing seismic-fault in that area. For this reason, a series of fracture experiments with rock and glass specimens having pre-existing crack or notch is performed in order to examine the effect of preexisting crack tob value. The experimental results show that theb value begins to decrease as soon as the initiation of the crack and finally drop to a very low value when the specimen breaks unstably. Based on these, a brief discussion on the possible mechanism ofb value change for natural earthquakes is given. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,9, 393–400, 1987. Projects sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.