２种统计方法对气象要素均一性的影响

在天气现象观测中,轻雾、霾、浮尘是较易混淆的天气现象,准确的判断和记录这些现象,需要从形成条件、天气背景、垂直能见度、相对湿度等方面进行分析,综合判断,本文对此作了一些分析和探讨。     

中国地区沙尘气溶胶输送过程的数值模拟

本文建立了一个包含沙尘起沙、输送、干沉积和湿沉积过程的气溶胶输送扩散模式．并和中尺度气候模式RIEMS相连接研究了1998年1月、4月、7月和1997年10月的沙尘起沙、输送、干沉积和湿沉积的过程。计算1998年1月、4月、7月和1997年10月气溶胶浓度及其分布．并和这四个月份的平均起沙分布以及北京、郑州和南京的实例沙尘分布作了比较．结果表明我国起沙多发生在春季．同时春季也是我国沙尘强度最大的季节。沙尘在我国西北的沙地和沙漠地区起沙后．向我国的东南方向输送．在输送过程中沙尘浓度逐渐降低。     

内蒙古“4．23”沙尘暴天气的环流背景及成因

利用常规观测资料和MICAPS提供的相关资料,对2009年4月23日－24日在内蒙古中西部地区发生的大范围大风、沙尘暴天气的高、低空环流形势、物理量场、卫星云图及数值预报场进行了分析。结果表明：a）本次沙尘暴的主要影响系统是贝加尔湖高空低涡引导冷空气南下在蒙古形成密集的高空锋区;b）地面蒙古气旋的暖性性质为沙尘暴的爆发提供了有利的热力条件;c）强烈的上升与下沉运动为大风、沙尘天气的发生提供了动力条件;d）螺旋状逗点云系的发展为此次大风、沙尘暴天气的形成提供了有利条件;e）沙尘暴发生前期上游地区干暖的气候条件及下垫面增厚的于土层及沙区,对沙尘暴的发生提供最基本的环境条件。     

一次蒙古气旋型强沙尘暴的数值模拟试验

利用沙尘数值预报模式对一次典型的蒙古气旋沙尘暴过程进行了数值模拟试验,结果表明:模式对沙尘区范围、强度及蒙古气旋不同发展阶段沙尘暴的强度、位置和演变进行了较成功的模拟。这次过程沙尘主要源于蒙古国南部及我国内蒙古中、西部荒漠化地区,沙尘以细中粉沙为主(d≤22μm)。模式模拟的沙尘暴日变化强于实况,其原因是模式没有考虑沙尘气溶胶辐射反馈机制。沙尘气溶胶的辐射强迫将削弱大气层结的日变化,从而有利于沙尘暴强度的维持。     

Modelling dust distributions in the atmospheric boundary layer on Mars

A time and height dependent eddy diffusion model is used to investigate possible scenarios for the size distribution of dust in the lower atmosphere of Mars. The dust is assumed to either have been advected from a distant source or to have originated locally. In the former case, the atmosphere is assumed to initially contain dust particles with sizes following a modified gamma distribution. Larger particles are deposited relatively rapidly while small particles are well mixed up to the maximum height of the afternoon boundary layer and are deposited more slowly. In other cases, a parameterization of the dust source at the surface is proposed. Model results show that smaller particles are rapidly mixed within the Martian boundary layer, while larger particles (r > 10 μm) are concentrated near the ground with a stronger diurnal cycle. In all simulations we assume that the initial concentration or surface source depend on a modified gamma function distribution. For small particles (cross- sectional area weighted mean radius, r_eff = 1.6 μm) distributions retain essentially the same form, though with variations in the mean and variance of the area-weighted radius, and the gamma function can be used to represent the particle size distribution reasonably well at most heights within the boundary layer. In the case of a surface source of larger particles (mean radius 50 μm) the modified gamma function does not fit the resulting particle size distribution. All results are normalised by a scaling factor that can be adjusted to correspond to an optical depth for assumed particle optical scattering properties.     

地形对沙尘暴的影响及敏感试验研究

在初步探讨地形影响沙尘扬升、传输、沉降等动力过程可能机制的基础上,利用沙尘数值预报模式对一次强沙尘暴过程进行了模拟研究,结果表明:沙尘暴形成阶段沙尘主要来源于阿尔泰—萨彦岭及以东地区,这部分沙尘主要向东扩展,该区域地形对其强度具有重要影响;内蒙古中西部、甘肃、宁夏等地的起沙主要在沙尘暴持续阶段产生影响,之后主要向南输送,青藏高原东侧地形绕流对其强度具有影响。地形影响可以使沙尘的扩展分为两种不同的方式,当上下游地形落差较小时形成整体推进式传输,此时沙尘位于对流层低层,没有上下沙尘层的分离;当上下游地形落差较大时形成分离式传输,沙尘位于对流层中层且在传输过程中沉降很弱,同时与地面附近的沙尘层分离。源于蒙古国、内蒙古等地的沙尘往往产生整体推进式传输;而产生于青藏高原的沙尘常形成分离式传输。     

中国北方沙尘灾害影响因子分析

利用中国北方1951—2000年188个沙尘暴代表站的气象观测数据和1983—2000年EROS数据中心NDVI数据,对我国北方沙尘灾害的影响因子进行了分析。主要结论有：①在影响沙尘暴发生、发展、演化的自然因子中,植被覆盖度、降水、大风日数和温度起关键作用,夏季植被覆盖度对来年春季沙尘暴发生频次影响较大,降水和温度主要表现在对地表植被覆盖等与沙尘暴有关的地表参数的影响;②大风日数和温度是沙尘暴形成的动力因子,植被覆盖度和降水是阻力因子。沙尘暴日数和持续时间的变化,主要取决于动力因子与阻力因子的综合作用;③遏制沙尘灾害的治本办法,不在于治理沙尘暴本身,而在于消除产生土地退化、生态安全下降的社会原因,处理好发展与生态环境建设的关系。     

植被参数变化对沙尘起沙影响机理的数值模拟

分析了叶面积指数和植被覆盖变化对沙尘暴起沙过程的影响机理。在一个集成的沙尘数值模拟预报系统中,将模拟区域的叶面积指数分成了0,0.5,3.0和卫星反演的实测值4种,结果表明,叶面积指数对沙尘的数值模拟有较大的影响,利用卫星反演的叶面积指数计算沙尘浓度时,沙尘浓度的变化介于叶面积指数为0~0.5之间。将植被覆盖度数据分成0,0.2和卫星反演的实测值3个类型。当植被覆盖度都为0时,沙尘浓度最大;当植被覆盖度为0.2时,沙尘浓度出现的范围明显减少。     

小冰期以来岱海地区的环境变迁与尘暴事件

根据高分辨率的湖泊沉积物粒度、Rb/Sr比、磁化率的综合分析,结合区域降水、历史记载资料,重建了内蒙古岱海地区近500年来以小冰期为特征的、具有100年准周期(经谱分析)的古环境变迁及受其制约发生的尘暴事件历史.结果表明,湖泊沉积物中Rb/Sr比值很好地反映了流域陆地受古环境状态变化控制的化学风化率的历史,而尘暴事件则主要是受冬、夏季风的相对强弱制约的.大量尘暴事件频发于小冰期干冷的气候条件下,表现为流域化学风化强度减弱、沉积物中粗颗粒含量高、中值粒径大.在转暖的现代气候下,尘暴事件很少,化学风化增强,沉积物中的粗颗粒含量及中值粒径也随之降低.但是近十几年,在化学风化仍相对较强的气候条件下,尘暴事件却呈上升趋势,这可能与人类活动造成的温室效应及土地荒漠化有关.     

Galileo long-term dust monitoring in the jovian magnetosphere

The Galileo spacecraft was launched in 1989, and—between 1995 and 2003—was the first spacecraft in orbit about Jupiter. The in-situ dust instrument on board was a highly sensitive impact-ionisation dust detector which measured the speed, mass and impact direction of dust particles hitting a metal target. It provided a unique 12-year record of cosmic dust in interplanetary and circumjovian space. Degradation of the instrument electronics caused by the harsh radiation environment in the inner jovian magnetosphere was recognised in various ways: the sensitivity for dust detection dropped by a factor of 7.5 between 1996 and 2003 while the noise sensitivity decreased by up to a factor of 100. Shifts in the parameters measured during dust impacts and noise events (charge amplitudes and signal rise times, etc.) required a time-dependent algorithm for noise identification. After noise removal a total of 21 224 complete data sets for dust impacts (i.e. impact charges, signal rise times, impact direction, etc.) is available from the entire Galileo mission between 1989 and 2003 (18 340 data sets from the Jupiter mission after 1996). This homogeneous data set has been used in many investigations of jovian dust published already or ongoing. Electronics degradation prevents the application of the mass and speed calibration to data obtained after 2000. Only in cases where the impact speed of grains is known by other means can grain masses be derived for later measurements. The drop of the detection sensitivity also required a time-dependent correction for fluxes of jovian dust streams, reaching a factor of 20 in 2002. We use the derived homogeneous noise-removed data set for long-term monitoring of the jovian dust streams with Galileo. The derived fluxes of dust stream particles were highly variable by about five orders of magnitude, between 3×10^-3 and and exhibited strong orbit-to-orbit variability. This extensive and valuable data set is available for further detailed investigations.