基于熵变加权法的水安全综合指数评价

为了构建水安全综合评价的模型,采用熵变加权法对水安全评价体系的各子系统进行赋权,得到水安全的综合评价指数公式。将方法应用于山东省区域水资源安全评价,并与其它方法的评价结果进行了比较分析。结果表明：基于熵变加权法的水安全综合指数能反映出样本与评价标准之间的远近程度,并且可以同时评价多个样本;熵变加权法的应用减少了评价的主观性,使评价结果客观、合理,具有良好的实用性。     

基于地面运动强度及标准贯入试验的上海地区砂土地震液化评价

上海市地处长江三角洲前缘,黄浦江和苏州河交汇区域,特殊的地理环境与沉积环境导致浅部砂层广泛发育。随着城市建设的不断推进,上海城市区域范围的砂土地震液化风险评价成为亟待研究的课题。文章基于上海市工程钻孔数据,结合地震地面运动加速度分布与标准贯入试验,建立区域性地震液化危险性评价模型,对上海市进行了地震液化危险性评价。研究认为当发生50年超越概率10%的地震条件下,上海市陆域面积的66.0%将不会产生地震砂土液化灾害,21.8%的陆域面积仅发生轻微液化,只有崇明、横沙、长兴三岛,黄浦江及苏州河两岸地震液化等级达到中等甚至严重,占全市陆域面积12.3%;50年超越概率2%的地震条件下,随着峰值地面运动加速度整体升高,全市范围内轻微—严重液化区域明显增多,可能发生地震液化的总面积达到全市陆域面积46.25%。上海市存在砂土地震液化的危险性,但是发生概率较低。研究认为,目前的抗震设计规范中上海市的设防烈度偏高,可能导致不必要的建设成本。同时研究中的不同超越概率下的地震液化危险性评价结果为上海市工程建设相关标准的合理化改进的提供了建议和参考。     

泥石流风险及沟谷泥石流风险度评价

风险一词虽然已经广泛被科学家和经济学家所使用 ,但涉及到自然灾害的风险研究则还是 2 0世纪 80年代中后期的事。国内有关泥石流风险的探讨 ,更是 2 0世纪 90年代才初见端倪。国际上 ,泥石流风险评价至今仍然是前沿探索性领域和新兴的研究课题。基于联合国对自然灾害风险的定义及其定量表达 ,本文给出了泥石流风险度 =危险度易损度这一数学命题的近似解。讨论了风险分级和不同风险等级的分布概率以及风险指南。以云南东川因民矿区黑山沟泥石流为例 ,对单沟泥石流风险度评价模型进行了示范应用     

Modelling atmospheric and hydrologic processes for assessment of meadow restoration impact on flow and sediment in a sparsely gauged California watershed

The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

雅安芦山4.20震后县级单元生态系统风险评价

区域生态风险评价是对各种生态风险及环境问题进行评价和管理的重要手段。针对雅安地震灾区特殊的自然地理及生态环境特征,选取芦山县为研究对象,采用遥感、GIS及SPSS统计分析的方法,通过风险源、风险受体、暴露和易损性分析,建立生态风险综合评价模型,划分生态风险区类型,进而提出生态风险管理对策。结果表明:1)微度和低度生态风险区集中分布在高海拔的森林及草地生态系统,该区生物多样性丰富,抗干扰能力较强,地质灾害及人类活动影响较小;2)中度和高度生态风险区具有沿农田及建设用地生态系统集聚分布的特征,该区地质灾害频繁,地壳活动性较强,生态系统抵抗灾害的能力较差。研究结果可为地震灾区防御、规避风险及安全选址提供科学依据。     

Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy

This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanisms, such as technology lock-ins, arising from multi-agent interactions) and agent heterogeneity (e.g. differences in consumer and investment behaviour arising from income stratification). We first characterise the uncertainty faced by climate policy-makers and its implications for investment decision-makers. We then identify five shortcomings in the equilibrium and optimisation-based approaches most frequently used to inform sustainability policy: (i) their normative, optimisation-based nature, (ii) their unrealistic reliance on the full-rationality of agents, (iii) their inability to account for mutual influences among agents (multi-agent interactions) and capture related self-reinforcing (positive feedback) processes, (iv) their inability to represent multiple solutions and path-dependency, and (v) their inability to properly account for agent heterogeneity. The aim of this article is to introduce an alternative modelling approach based on complexity dynamics and agent heterogeneity, and explore its use in four key areas of sustainability policy, namely (1) technology adoption and diffusion, (2) macroeconomic impacts of low-carbon policies, (3) interactions between the socio-economic system and the natural environment, and (4) the anticipation of policy outcomes. The practical relevance of the proposed methodology is subsequently discussed by reference to four specific applications relating to each of the above areas: the diffusion of transport technology, the impact of low-carbon investment on income and employment, the management of cascading uncertainties, and the cross-sectoral impact of biofuels policies. In conclusion, the article calls for a fundamental methodological shift aligning the modelling of the socio-economic system with that of the climatic system, for a combined and realistic understanding of the impact of sustainability policies.     

基于改进综合气象干旱指数的2011年和2013年长江中下游干旱低频振荡特征分析

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和地面观测资料,基于改进的综合气象干旱指数（I_C）对长江中下游地区2011年春季和2013年夏季干旱过程的低频振荡特征进行了分析。结果表明：2011年春季干旱过程的主要低频I_C周期为30~60 d,西太平洋500 hPa正异常低频高度场系统的西移、南支锋区上游500 hPa正异常低频高度场系统的东移和北扩、西北地区东部低层低频反气旋的向南移动可能是低频I_C传播变化特征的重要原因。2013年夏季干旱过程的主要低频I_C周期也为30~60 d,西亚和西北太平洋500 hPa正异常低频高度场向我国南方地区移动、孟加拉湾和西北太平洋的低层低频反气旋向西和向北移动与低频I_C传播变化特征有重要联系。     

应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估

分析目前国内雷电灾害风险评估发展现状,针对精细化雷击风险评估需求,以某大桥塔体电梯雷电灾害风险评估为例,在对雷击损坏途径进行系统分析的基础上,引入事故树(FTA)分析方法对电梯雷击损坏事件的致因关系进行了建模、分析与评价,得出电梯雷击损坏事件发生的年预计概率、导致雷击电梯损坏事件发生的关键以及最佳控制雷击电梯损坏事件发生的最有效因素。     

Direct scantling assessment of propeller blades

Traditionally, propeller design has been focused on all activities necessary to obtain a propeller featuring a high efficiency, avoiding erosive cavitation for given operating conditions and having adequate structural strength. In recent years, more and more challenging requirements have been imposed, such as the reduction of radiated noise and pressures pulses, requiring more precise analyses and methods in the optimization of the propeller performance. On the other hand, the evaluation of the propeller strength still relies on simplified methods, which basically consider the blade as a cantilever beam subjected to characteristic static forces. Since the loads acting on a blade are variable in the blade revolution and in different operating conditions throughout the ship life, a procedure to account for the influence of fatigue phenomena is proposed. The fatigue assessment could reduce the safety factor in the propeller scantling rules and allow improving the quality of propeller design (e.g. obtaining higher efficiency, margin on cavitation phenomena, less noise).     

Safety Assessment of Buried Pipeline during Pile Driving Vibration in Offshore Engineering

To assess the impact of pile driving on adjacent submarine pipelines during the reconstruction of a pier berth, the local damage model of submarine pipelines is established to explore the safety thresholds of the particle peak velocity and horizontal displacement. The results are analyzed and adjusted by the existing standards and the corresponding literatures. Then, a three-dimensional numerical model is presented to assess the feasibility of the construction of piles by the obtained safety limits, in which the nonlinear behavior of the soil and stress–seepage coupling analysis are considered. After the construction, the safety of submarine pipelines is rechecked by the measured value of the particle peak velocity and horizontal displacement. Meanwhile, the propagation law of vibration, the horizontal displacement of underground soil, and the pore pressure during pile driving are explored. The results indicate that the construction of piles of 2# mooring pier did not cause damage to adjacent submarine pipelines. However, the construction of piles of 1# mooring pier which is nearer may cause damage to submarine pipelines.