Evaluation of aluminum speciation in surface waters in China and its environmental risk assessment

As the ongoing global research on acid precipitation is developing in depth, more and more attention has been paid to the ecological effects of aluminum (Al) due to its toxicity to plants and animals, which is caused by acid precipitation. As a very serious problem of terrestrial and aquatic environmental acidification occurs in China, especially in southwestern China, a systematic investigation of Al speciation in these regions is very important. In this paper, the Al speciation results of surface waters in China are reported and its ecological impacts is evaluated. More than 100 water samples were collected from about twenty provinces of China. Driscoll's Al speciation scheme combined with the modified MINQEL computer model is used for speciation of Al. This study shows that the ecological impacts of acidification are quite different between China and Western countries, because of different geographical environments and geological settings. In Western countries, acidification is mainly caused by NO₂^-. Due to low concentrations of K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, the buffer capacities of soil and water are weak. Therefore, natural waters can be acidified to pH<5 very easily, resulting in a considerable mobilization of Al and worsening of the ecological environment. In China, acid precipitation is mainly in the form of sulfuric acid. In northwestern China, concentrations of K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ are high in soil and surface waters. This leads to much higher capacity and a high resistance ability to acidification. The pH values of waters in this region are high (around 7) and no serious Al toxicity is found at present. However, in northeastern and southeastern China, the soil is rich in Al (unsaturated aluminosilicates in northeastern China, saturated aluminosilicates in north and central China, aluminum-rich soil in southeastern and southwestern China). The concentrations of K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ in soil and waters are lower than those of northwestern China. Therefore the buffer capacity is limited. Numerous surface waters have already been acidified and pH values declined to 5. The impacts of Al toxicity on ecological systems in these regions are very serious, especially in Jiangxi, Hubei Provinces and Chongqing Municipality.     

The inhibition of marine nitrification by ocean disposal of carbon dioxide

In an attempt to reduce the threat of global warming, it has been proposed that the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations be reduced by the ocean disposal of CO2 from the flue gases of fossil fuel-fired power plants. The release of large amounts of CO2 into mid or deep ocean waters will result in large plumes of acidified seawater with pH values ranging from 6 to 8. In an effort to determine whether these CO2-induced pH changes have any effect on marine nitrification processes, surficial (euphotic zone) and deep (aphotic zone) seawater samples were sparged with CO2 for varying time durations to achieve a specified pH reduction, and the rate of microbial ammonia oxidation was measured spectrophotometrically as a function of pH using an inhibitor technique. For both seawater samples taken from either the euphotic or aphotic zone, the nitrification rates dropped drastically with decreasing pH. Relative to nitrification rates in the original seawater at pH 8, nitrification rates were reduced by ca. 50% at pH 7 and more than 90% at pH 6.5. Nitrification was essentially completely inhibited at pH 6. These findings suggest that the disposal of CO2 into mid or deep oceans will most likely result in a drastic reduction of ammonia oxidation rates within the pH plume and the concomitant accumulation of ammonia instead of nitrate. It is unlikely that ammonia will reach the high concentration levels at which marine aquatic organisms are known to be negatively affected. However, if the ammonia-rich seawater from inside the pH plume is upwelled into the euphotic zone, it is likely that changes in phytoplankton abundance and community structure will occur. Finally, the large-scale inhibition of nitrification and the subsequent reduction of nitrite and nitrate concentrations could also result in a decrease of denitrification rates which, in turn, could lead to the buildup of nitrogen and unpredictable eutrophication phenomena. Clearly, more research on the environmental effects of ocean disposal of CO2 is needed to determine whether the potential costs related to marine ecosystem disturbance and disruption can be justified in terms of the perceived benefits that may be achieved by temporarily delaying global warming.     

Assessment of drought vulnerability based on the soil moisture PDF

This paper studies the statistics of the soil moisture condition and its monthly variation for the purpose of evaluating drought vulnerability. A zero-dimensional soil moisture dynamics model with the rainfall forcing by the rectangular pulses Poisson process model are used to simulate the soil moisture time series for three sites in Korea: Seoul, Daegu, and Jeonju. These sites are located in the central, south-eastern, and south-western parts of the Korean Peninsular, respectively. The model parameters are estimated on a monthly basis using hourly rainfall data and monthly potential evaporation rates obtained by the Penmann method. The resulting soil moisture simulations are summarized on a monthly basis. In brief, the conclusions of our study are as follows. (1) Strong seasonality is observed in the simulations of soil moisture. The soil moisture mean is less than 0.5 during the dry spring season (March, April, and June), but other months exceed the 0.5 value. (2) The spring season is characterized by a low mean value, a high standard deviation and a positive skewness of the soil moisture content. On the other hand, the wet season is characterized by a high mean value, low standard deviation, and negative skewness of the soil moisture content. Thus, in the spring season, much drier soil moisture conditions are apparent due to the higher variability and positive skewness of the soil moisture probability density function (PDF), which also indicates more vulnerability to severe drought occurrence. (3) Seoul, Daegue, and Jeonju show very similar overall trends of soil moisture variation; however, Daegue shows the least soil moisture contents all through the year, which implies that the south-eastern part of the Korean Peninsula is most vulnerable to drought. On the other hand, the central part and the south-western part of the Korean peninsula are found to be less vulnerable to the risk of drought. The conclusions of the study are in agreement with the climatology of the Korean Peninsula.     

A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.     

Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.     

Prolonged Dry Episodes over North America: New Tendencies Emerging During the Last 40 Years

A disproportionate increase in precipitation coming from intense rain events, in the situation of general warming (thus, an extension of the vegetation period with intensive transpiration) and an insignificant change in total precipitation could lead to an increase in the frequency of potentially serious type of extreme events: prolonged periods without precipitation (even when the mean seasonal rainfall totals increase). This paper investigates whether this development is already occurring during the past several decades over North America south of 55°N, for the same period when changes in frequency of intense precipitation events are being observed. Lengthy strings of “dry” days without sizeable (>1.0 mm) precipitation were assessed only during the warm season (defined as a period when mean daily temperature is above the 5℃ threshold) when water is intensively used for transpiration and prolonged periods without sizable rainfall represent a hazard for terrestrial ecosystem's health and agriculture. During the past four decades, the mean duration of prolonged dry episodes (20 days or longer in southeastern Canada, 1 month or longer in the Eastern United States and along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and 2 months or longer in the Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico) has significantly increased. As a consequence, the return period of 1 month long dry episodes over the Eastern U.S. has been reduced more than twofold from 15 to 6~7 years. The longer average duration of dry episodes has occurred during a relatively wet period around most of the continent south of 55°N but is not observed over the Northwestern U.S. and adjacent regions of Southern Canada.      

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

风险管理研究已成为防灾减灾工作从“被动救灾”到“主动预防”转化的热门课题。本文回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足。提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法。最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法。     

顶管施工中的风险分析

随着我国经济的发展和人们环保意识的增强，顶管施工作为一种非开挖施工方法得到广泛的应用，在城市建设中应用的领域也越来越宽。由于地下工程的不确定性，特别是在拥挤的城市，顶管施工常面临极大的风险。本文通过分析顶管施工项目风险因素及后果，给出了降低顶管施工风险的措施。     

Clustering stochastic point process model for flood risk analysis

Since the introduction into flood risk analysis, the partial duration series method has gained increasing acceptance as an appealing alternative to the annual maximum series method. However, when the base flow is low, there is clustering in the flood peak or flow volume point process. In this case, the general stochastic point process model is not suitable to risk analysis. Therefore, two types of models for flood risk analysis are derived on the basis of clustering stochastic point process theory in this paper. The most remarkable characteristic of these models is that the flood risk is considered directly within the time domain. The acceptability of different models are also discussed with the combination of the flood peak counted process in twenty years at Yichang station on the Yangtze river. The result shows that the two kinds of models are suitable ones for flood risk analysis, which are more flexible compared with the traditional flood risk models derived on the basis of annual maximum series method or the general stochastic point process theory. Received: September 29, 1997     

一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法

提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法,它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求,所以,对低地震活动地区,此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后,以华北地区为例,说明了本方法的可行性。