一种改进我国汛期降水预测的新思路

1998年1月赤道东太平洋海温为正异常、1月黑潮－西风漂流区海温为负异常、青藏高原冬春积雪为正异常。通过对1998年汛期降水的预测实践分析研究指出，当此三因子同时异常时，利用其中任何一个单因子都难以较好地同时预测出1998年发生在我国长江中下游和东北嫩江流域的多雨区和华北平原的少雨区。而通过EOF分解和动力模式对三因子异常进行综合集成所作的预测和实况基本一致。对多因子异常的综合集成是改进和提高汛期降水预测水平的有效手段，沿着这一新思路，利用EOF筛选出前明显异常的重要因子，选择一个较好的区域气候模式，有希望通过综合集成作出比较可信的预报。     

我国人均粮食变化的地理研究

人均粮食占有量是反映粮食供给水平的重要指标，本文分析了我国人均粮食占有量变化的阶段和地理特征，并探讨了其与粮食增产的关系，对因地制宜调控人粮关系有一定参考价值。     

汀溪水库三维防洪调度管理信息系统研发

水库防洪调度是一个非常复杂的过程。水库防洪调度的信息化主要是借助测量、遥测、遥感(RS)、地理信息系统(G IS)、全球定位系统(GPS)等手段采集基础数据,构建数字化水库防洪数据管理平台和水库虚拟三维环境。在该平台和环境中,以系统软件和数学模型对水库流域的水雨情及洪水的调度方案进行模拟、分析和研究,提供决策支持,从而增强防洪调度决策的科学性和预见性。实践表明,通过RS、GIS技术建立的水库三维防洪调度系统能够为水库管理者提供水库防洪调度方案制定与分析、防洪调度决策等方面的强有力的、科学的辅助支持。本文结合厦门"汀溪水库三维防洪调度系统"的实际研发,探讨了RS和GIS技术在水库防洪调度中的应用。     

东北地区玉米不同生长阶段干旱冷害危险性评价

利用东北地区35个农业气象站1961—2010年气象资料、玉米产量资料和1981—2010年玉米生育期资料,选用合适的干旱指标和冷害指标,结合自然灾害风险理论建立了灾害危险性评价模型。基于灾害判别结果和历史灾情资料,从典型灾害年中提取不同灾种的影响差异,构成权重系数,对东北地区玉米不同生长阶段和整个生育期干旱、冷害危险性进行评价。结果表明,东北地区干旱、冷害危险性在玉米生长前期(出苗—拔节阶段)主要集中在东北地区东南部,此阶段主要以冷害为主;而在玉米生长后期(抽雄—成熟阶段),风险高值区转移到西部,此阶段以干旱为主。生长前期和生长后期对整个生长阶段危险性的贡献值分别为0.3473和0.6527。东北地区的主要气象灾害正逐渐从冷害向干旱转变,冷害发生的频次逐渐减少,而干旱发生的频次快速增多,影响的范围也迅速增大。     

北京耕地流失的时空动态与调控途径研究

在国际学术前沿土地变化科学的概念框架下, 耕地非农化及其调控机制研究成为核心问 题之一。研究中国快速城市化地区耕地非农化的驱动力及其调控机制, 不仅是现实的迫切需求, 也可在国际相关学术领域做出独特贡献。以北京为案例进行研究发现: 1996~2004 年北京土地利 用变化中, 大多数地类转换都与耕地直接有关, 耕地流失是北京土地利用变化的核心问题; 城镇 扩展主要占用耕地, 且耕地生产力高的平原地区因建设占用而流失的耕地量大; 远郊山区耕地被 建设占用的压力相对较小, 但被生态用地占用的压力相对较大; 人口增长、经济发展、政府行为与 决策是北京等经济快速发展地区耕地流失的重要驱动因素, 解决途径关键在于寻求耕地保护与 耕地非农利用之间的平衡点、积极发挥土地管理政策的调控作用。     

Input-output Balances of Nutrients and Plankton in a Flooded Area of the Lower Odra

The retention of particulate matter of the Odra River in flooded areas was estimated by determining suspended particulate matter (SPM) elimination and particle-bound nutrient retention in a polder area of the Lower Odra Valley national park. Water and suspended matter samples collected before, during, and after the 1997 summer flood at the inlet and the outlet of the investigated polder (Polder A/B close to Schwedt) offer the opportunity to balance the matter retention inside the floodplain. The maximum level of retained SPM (more than 80%) was calculated for the record flood of summer 1997, while in ordinary winter floods retention differs between 33% and 70%. Basic properties of the flowing particles like settling velocity, density, loss on ignition etc. change on their way through the polder area. In the investigated Polder A/B a retention of at least 50% of particle-bound phosphorus which was independent of the incoming suspended matter load from the Odra River was observed. The retention of particle-bound nitrogen and carbon varied seasonally to different extents. The presented balance demonstrates that particle-bound nutrient retention in polders is an important factor in the self-purification process of the river system. Some additional effort was done to study changes of plankton composition: during a joint field experiment in spring 1998, the authors determined biological parameters (abundance and biomass of phytoplankton and zooplankton) of water samples at polder inflow and outflow points.     

应用水化多层次跟踪预报方法研究闽台地区地震的映震特征

本文针对1990年至1999年福建及沿海中强以上地震和台湾7.0级以上地震,利用“八五”攻关的水化多层次跟踪预报方法,研究福建水氡台网观测资料的异常频次变化特征和演化过程,总结其相应的映震特征。     

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.     

Effects of Hydrogel Amendment to Different Soils on Plant Available Water and Survival of Trees under Drought Conditions

The effect of super absorbent polyacrylate (SAP) hydrogel amendment to different soil types on plant available water (PAW), evapotranspiration and survival of Eucalyptus grandis, Eucalyptus citriodora, Pinus caribaea, Araucaria cunninghamii, Melia volkensii, Grevillea robusta, Azadirachta indica, Maesopsis eminii and Terminalia superba was investigated. The seedlings were potted in 3 kg size polythene bags filled with sand, loam, silt loam, sandy loam and clay soils, amended at 0 (control), 0.2 and 0.4% w/w hydrogel. The tree seedlings were allowed to grow normally with routine uniform watering in a glass house set up for a period of eight weeks, after which they were subjected to drought conditions by not watering any further. The 0.4% hydrogel amendment significantly (p < 0.05) increased the PAW by a factor of about three in sand, two fold in silt loam and one fold in sandy loam, loam and clay soils compared to the control. Similarly, the addition of either 0.2 or 0.4% hydrogel to the five soil types resulted in prolonged tree survival compared to the controls. Araucaria cunninghammi survived longest at 153 days, while Maesopsis eminii survived least (95 days) in sand amended at 0.4% after subjection to desiccation. Evapotranspiration was reduced in eight of the nine tree species grown in sandy loam, loam, silt loam and clay soils amended at 0.4% hydrogel. It is probable that soil amendment with SAP decreased the hydraulic soil conductivity that might reduce plant transpiration and soil evaporation.     

胶东夏甸金矿床构造-热历史: 成岩-成矿年代学与磷灰石裂变径迹热年代学综合约束

胶东是全球唯一已知前寒武纪变质地体内的晚中生代巨型金成矿系统, 其成矿机制独具特色, 属胶东型金矿床成因新类型; 深入剖析该成矿系统的形成、变化与保存过程对丰富和完善金成矿理论具有重要意义。夏甸超大型金矿床位于胶东招平金矿带中南段, 赋存于晚侏罗世玲珑花岗岩和早白垩世郭家岭花岗岩中, 是一典型的胶东型金矿床; 该矿床成岩-成矿时代已有精确限定, 但其精细演化过程与成矿后变化-保存尚缺乏有效约束, 是开展矿床形成与隆升剥蚀研究的理想选择。因此, 本文通过成岩-成矿年代学与磷灰石裂变径迹热年代学综合约束该矿床的构造-热历史, 揭示其主控因素, 提高对该成矿系统的认识, 为深部找矿潜力评价提供支撑。本次获取的锆石U-Pb定年结果显示玲珑花岗岩和郭家岭花岗岩分别于151.7±2.1Ma(2σ)和125.8±1.6Ma(2σ)侵位。区域已有黑云母和白云母⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar年龄表明玲珑岩体侵位后缓慢冷却, 并发生韧性变形; 郭家岭花岗岩则经历了同岩浆韧性变形和快速冷却; 约于124Ma两者均冷却至350±50℃, 区域发生韧脆性变形转换。夏甸金矿床与载金矿物共生的热液绢云母⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar和热液独居石U-Pb年龄表明, 该区于约120Ma发生大规模脆性构造活动和金成矿作用。本文利用采自夏甸金矿床-652m中段532巷道中包括主控矿断层上、下盘经历不同变形程度的7件岩/矿石样品进行磷灰石裂变径迹(AFT)分析。除遭受异常热事件影响的主断裂上盘次级断层断层泥样品外, 其余6件样品AFT中值年龄在32.5±1.7Ma(1σ)至23.6±2.9Ma(1σ)之间, 其径迹长度平均值低于14μm(范围为12.0±0.3μm~13.8±0.3μm)、为单峰分布、并略具负偏斜特征, 表明该矿床大致在32~23Ma单调缓慢通过磷灰石裂变径迹部分退火带(125~60℃)。综合区域已有热年代学资料与上述锆石U-Pb、AFT数据, 重建了夏甸金矿床自赋矿玲珑和郭家岭花岗岩侵位以来的构造-热演化历史, 计算出自120Ma金成矿至今该矿床平均冷却和剥蚀速率分别为1.8℃/Myr和0.059km/Myr, 总剥蚀量约为7km, 对比前人对胶西北地区整体剥蚀程度与深部成矿潜力的定量评估以及目前~1.5km的钻孔最大见矿深度, 推断其深部找矿潜力良好。