The NAFE’06 data set: Towards soil moisture retrieval at intermediate resolution

The National Airborne Field Experiment 2006 (NAFE’06) was conducted during a three week period of November 2006 in the Murrumbidgee River catchment, located in southeastern Australia. One objective of NAFE’06 was to explore the suitability of the area for SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) calibration/validation and develop downscaling and assimilation techniques for when SMOS does come on line. Airborne L-band brightness temperature was mapped at 1 km resolution 11 times (every 1–3 days) over a 40 by 55 km area in the Yanco region and 3 times over a 40 by 50 km area that includes Kyeamba Creek catchment. Moreover, multi-resolution, multi-angle and multi-spectral airborne data including surface temperature, surface reflectance (green, read and near infrared), lidar data and aerial photos were acquired over selected areas to develop downscaling algorithms and test multi-angle and multi-spectral retrieval approaches. The near-surface soil moisture was measured extensively on the ground in eight sampling areas concurrently with aircraft flights, and the soil moisture profile was continuously monitored at 41 sites. Preliminary analyses indicate that (i) the uncertainty of a single ground measurement was typically less than 5% vol. (ii) the spatial variability of ground measurements at 1 km resolution was up to 10% vol. and (iii) the validation of 1 km resolution L-band data is facilitated by selecting pixels with a spatial soil moisture variability lower than the point-scale uncertainty. The sensitivity of passive microwave and thermal data is also compared at 1 km resolution to illustrate the multi-spectral synergy for soil moisture monitoring at improved accuracy and resolution. The data described in this paper are available at www.nafe.unimelb.edu.au.     

Evaluating different GCMs for predicting spatial recharge in an irrigated arid region

Groundwater systems in arid regions will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing to the strong dependence of rates of evapotranspiration on temperature, and shifts in the precipitation regimes. Irrigation use in these arid regions is typically a large component of the water budget, and may increase due to changes in soil moisture resulting from higher temperatures and changes in the timing of precipitation events. In this study, future predicted climate change scenarios from three global climate models (CGCM1 GHG+A1, CGCM3.1 A2, and HadCM3 A2) are used to determine the sensitivity of recharge to different climate models in an irrigated agricultural region. The arid Oliver region (annual precipitation 300 mm) in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia, is used to demonstrate the approach. Irrigation return flow, as a contribution to total diffuse recharge, is simulated by calculating the daily applied irrigation based on estimates of seasonal crop water demand and the forecasted precipitation and evaporation data. The relative contribution of irrigation return flow to groundwater recharge under current and future climate conditions is modelled. Temperature data were downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), while precipitation and solar radiation changes were estimated directly from the GCM data. Shifts in climate, from present to future predicted, were applied to a stochastic weather generator, and used to force a one-dimensional hydrologic model, HELP 3.80D. Results were applied spatially, according to different soil profiles, slope and vegetation, over a 22.5 km by 8.6 km region. Changes to recharge in future time periods for each GCM result in modest increases of recharge with the peak recharge shifting from March to February. Lower recharge rates and higher potential evapotranspiration rates are similarly predicted by all three models for the summer months. All scenarios show that the potential growing season will expand between 3 and 4 weeks due to increases in temperature. However, the magnitude of the change varies considerably between models. CGCM3.1 has the largest increases of recharge rates, CGCM1 has very minor increases, and HadCM3 is relatively stable (as indicated by the near-zero changes between climate states). The significant differences between these three models indicate that prediction of future recharge is highly dependent on the model selected. The minor increase of annual recharge in future predicted climate states is due the shift of peak recharge from increased temperature. Irrigation rates dominate total recharge during the summer months in this arid area. Recharge in irrigated areas is significantly higher than natural recharge, with irrigation return flow between 25% and 58%. A comparison of recharge results for the least efficient and the most efficient irrigation systems indicates that the latter are more sensitive to choice of GCM.     

Risk-adjusted approaches for planning sustainable agricultural development

In this paper we show that explicit treatment of risks and uncertainties in agricultural production planning may considerably alter strategies for achieving robust outcomes with regard to sustainable agricultural developments. We discuss production planning models under uncertainties and risks that may assist in planning location-specific production expansion within environmental and health risk indicators and constraints. The proposed approaches are illustrated with the example of spatially explicit livestock production allocation in China to 2030.     

基于GWR模型的陕西秦巴山区TRMM降水数据降尺度研究

应用TRMM降水数据,进行国内典型区域降尺度相关研究,可弥补应用气象站点数据研究带来的局限。以陕西秦巴山区为研究区,基于TRMM降水数据和NDVI数据,应用GWR模型和比例指数,获得GWR年、月降尺度数据并进行检验,最后分析地形对降尺度结果的影响。结果表明：获得的1 km分辨率的GWR降尺度降水数据,具有较强的细节表现能力;降尺度数据与实测降水数据年尺度上相关系数为0.88,月为0.93,相关性较好;与TRMM原始数据对比,降尺度结果降水值略小,整体低估降水;区内秦岭山地GWR降尺度结果精度变化幅度最小,相似地形条件下,海拔越高,GWR降尺度结果表现越好;采用GWR模型进行秦巴山区TRMM降水数据的降尺度研究,具有较强的适用性。     

多模式集合预报及其降尺度技术在东亚夏季降水预测中的应用

利用动力季节模式输出的匹配域投影技术和多模式集合预报技术对多个国家和城市的站点月平均降水进行预报。预报变量是北京1个站、韩国60个站和曼谷地区8个站点的月平均降水,预报因子是从多个业务动力季节预报模式输出的多个大尺度变量。模式回报数据和站点观测降水数据时段是1983—2003年。降尺度预报降水的技巧是在交叉验证的框架下进行的。匹配域投影方法是设定一个可以活动的窗口在全球范围内大尺度场上进行扫描,寻求与目标站点降水最优化的因子和最相关的区域,目标站点的降水变率就是由该匹配域上大尺度环流场信息决定的。最终预报是用多个降尺度模式预报结果的集合预报(DMME)。多个降尺度模式预报结果的集合预报能显著地提高站点降水的预报技巧。北京站,多个降尺度模式预报结果的集合预报的预报和观测降水的相关系数可以提高到0.71;韩国地区,多个降尺度模式预报结果的集合预报平均技巧提高到0.75;泰国,多个降尺度模式预报结果的集合预报技巧是0.61。     

A Spatio-Temporal Enhancement Method for medium resolution LAI (STEM-LAI)

Satellite remote sensing has been used successfully to map leaf area index (LAI) across landscapes, but advances are still needed to exploit multi-scale data streams for producing LAI at both high spatial and temporal resolution. A multi-scale Spatio-Temporal Enhancement Method for medium resolution LAI (STEM-LAI) has been developed to generate 4-day time-series of Landsat-scale LAI from existing medium resolution LAI products. STEM-LAI has been designed to meet the demands of applications requiring frequent and spatially explicit information, such as effectively resolving rapidly evolving vegetation dynamics at sub-field (30 m) scales. In this study, STEM-LAI is applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based LAI data and utilizes a reference-based regression tree approach for producing MODIS-consistent, but Landsat-based, LAI. The Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) is used to interpolate the downscaled LAI between Landsat acquisition dates, providing a high spatial and temporal resolution improvement over existing LAI products. STARFM predicts high resolution LAI by blending MODIS and Landsat based information from a common acquisition date, with MODIS data from a prediction date. To demonstrate its capacity to reproduce fine-scale spatial features observed in actual Landsat LAI, the STEM-LAI approach is tested over an agricultural region in Nebraska. The implementation of a 250 m resolution LAI product, derived from MODIS 1 km data and using a scale consistent approach based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), is found to significantly improve accuracies of spatial pattern prediction, with the coefficient of efficiency (E) ranging from 0.77–0.94 compared to 0.01–0.85 when using 1 km LAI inputs alone. Comparisons against an 11-year record of in-situ measured LAI over maize and soybean highlight the utility of STEM-LAI in reproducing observed LAI dynamics (both characterized by r² = 0.86) over a range of plant development stages. Overall, STEM-LAI represents an effective downscaling and temporal enhancement mechanism that predicts in-situ measured LAI better than estimates derived through linear interpolation between Landsat acquisitions. This is particularly true when the in-situ measurement date is greater than 10 days from the nearest Landsat acquisition, with prediction errors reduced by up to 50%. With a streamlined and completely automated processing interface, STEM-LAI represents a flexible tool for LAI disaggregation in space and time that is adaptable to different land cover types, landscape heterogeneities, and cloud cover conditions.     

基于BCC_CSM模式的中国东部夏季降水预测检验及订正

基于国家气候中心第二代季节预测模式的历史回报试验数据,检验了模式对我国东部夏季降水的预测能力,探讨了预测误差形成的可能原因,并应用降尺度方法提高了模式的降水预测技巧。分析表明:（1）模式能在一定程度上把握我国东部夏季降水时空变率的两个主要模态（偶极子型模态和全区一致型模态）,但是不同超前时间的预测在刻画模态方差贡献、异常空间分布特征、时间系数的年际变化等方面存在明显误差;（2）模式能够合理预测大尺度环流和海表温度（SST）的变化特征,但是对中国东部夏季降水的总体预测技巧有限,这与模式不能准确刻画西太平洋副热带高压、大陆高压、中高纬阻塞高压等环流系统以及热带太平洋、印度洋SST变率对中国东部降水模态的影响有关;（3）针对1991~2003年回报试验数据中的500 hPa位势高度、850 hPa纬向风和经向风、SST变量,在全球范围内寻找并定位与中国东部站点降水关系最密切的预报因子,进而建立针对降水预测的单因子线性回归、多因子逐步和多元回归模型。采用2004~2013年回报试验对所建立的降水预测模型进行了独立检验,结果表明:所建立的降尺度预测模型能显著提高中国东部地区夏季降水的预报技巧。以6月1日起报试验为例,预测的第一模态（第二模态）与观测的空间相关系数由原始的0.12（0.48）提高到了0.58（0.80）,时间相关系数则从0.47（0.15）提高到0.80（0.67）;其它超前时间的预测试验中,降尺度预测模型的降水预测技巧相比模式原始预测技巧也同样明显提高。     

降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用

着重介绍月动力延伸数值预报模拟技巧较高的大气环流在局域降水方面的降尺度（downscaling）应用。克服动力降尺度和统计降尺度技术的缺点，从动力与统计相结合的角度，给出月尺度大气环流与局地降水之间的关系，该联系有清楚的动力学背景和天气学意义。120个月的历史实况资料回报试验证明了该关系的合理性。T63/NCC月动力延伸形势场集合预报进行中国降水的降尺度应用亦取得了较好的结果。     

未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究进展

概述未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究的主要进展。首先,对用于开展气候变化预估研究的不同复杂程度的气候系统及地球系统模式及其模拟能力进行了简要的介绍,指出虽然目前气候系统模式在很多方面存在着较大的不确定性,但大体说来可提供当前气候状况的可信模拟结果;进而介绍了IPCC不同的排放情景,以及不同排放情景下全球与东亚区域气候变化预估的主要结果。研究表明,尽管不同模式对不同情景下未来气候变化预估的结果存有差异,但对未来50～100年全球气候变化的模拟大体一致,即全球将持续增温、降水出现区域性增加。在此基础上,概述了全球气候模式模拟结果的区域化技术,并重点介绍了降尺度方法的分类与应用。同时对气候变化预估的不确定性进行了讨论。最后,对气候变化预估的研究前景进行了展望,并讨论了未来我国气候变化预估研究的重点发展方向。