超级单体引发的一次大风风速估算及其机理探讨

基于地面、高空、雷达探测资料和GFS再分析资料,对一次超级单体引发的大风风速进行估测,并探讨大风的形成机理。研究表明:①伴随着大风天气的发生,地面气温快速下降、比湿减少;大风的发生与风暴单体的发展程度和中气旋强弱在时间上具有一致性,风向分布与中气旋的旋转方向相同;大风地点发生在大尺度背景下垂直速度下沉区域。②风速具有随着不同等级径向速度面积增加而增加的现象,用其可以大致估算风力等级。③多单体的合并使得风暴单体变强,成为超级单体风暴;通过动量下传,促使空中大风快速下沉至近地层辐散,使之成为地面大风的形成机制之一。④由于中等雨量的拖曳作用,将中层大气拖曳至近地层;地面气温显著降低,表示环境负浮力的增大,加强了中层大气的下沉运动。⑤风暴合并、动量下传、降水拖曳和环境负浮力增加以及风暴后部下沉气流等共同作用引起了地面大风。     

湘中"6.26"雷雨大风过程的多普勒雷达产品分析

对6月26日发生在湘中的一次大风过程进行多普勒天气雷达回波分析发现,中低层切变线、地面干线和较强垂直风切变是发生大风的主要背景形势,回波的快速移动、"V"形槽口是雷达回波的总体特征;大风易发生在风暴相对减弱的时期,在雷达产品上具有较低的雷达反射率因子(Z)值,以及较低的垂直积分液态水含量(VIL)和回波顶高(ET)。     

高密度极尖区的形成原因

极尖区是太阳风进入磁层的一个重要窗口,极尖区密度是反映这一物理过程的重要参量,通常情况下极尖区密度约为1~10 cm^-3,但有时卫星会观测到密度大于40 cm^-3的极尖区,本文称之为高密度极尖区.我们分析了Cluster卫星2001—2009年的观测数据,在470个极尖区穿越中找到28个高密度极尖区穿越事件并进行了统计研究,分析了高密度极尖区事件的形成原因,进而讨论了太阳风高效地进入极尖区的外部条件.结果表明：距正午的距离（｜MLT-12｜）较小,太阳风的密度高,低纬有磁层顶磁重联发生以及正偶极倾角都是观测到高密度极尖区事件的有利条件,并且当同时满足上述4个条件时,高密度极尖区事件发生率为100%;而低纬磁层顶磁重联以及大的正偶极倾角被认为是太阳风高效地进入极尖区的重要条件.这些研究结果有助于我们更进一步地理解太阳风进入极尖区的物理机制.     

印度洋赤道潜流年际变化特征及其与印度洋偶极子的联系

印度洋赤道潜流(equatorial undercurrent,EUC)是赤道流系的重要组成部分,对印度洋物质输运和能量交换有着重要意义.基于SODA 3.4.2海洋再分析数据,对印度洋EUC的三维空间结构和年际变化特征进行分析,并揭示其年际变率与印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean dipole,IOD)的联系.结...     

Retrieval of Sea Surface Wind Speed by One-Dimensional Synthetic Aperture Microwave Radiometer

One-dimensional synthetic aperture microwave radiometers have higher spatial resolution and record measurements at multiple incidence angles. In this paper, we propose a multiple linear regression method to retrieve sea surface wind speed at an incidence angle between 0° ~65°. We assume that a one-dimensional synthetic aperture microwave radiometer operates at frequencies of 6.9, 10.65, 18.7, 23.8 and 36.5 GHz. Then, the microwave radiative transfer forward model is used to simulate the measured brightness temperatures. The sensitivity of the brightness temperatures at 0°~65° to the sea surface wind speed is calculated. Then, vertical polarization channels(VR), horizontal polarization channels(HR) and all channels(AR) are used to retrieve the sea surface wind speed via a multiple linear regression algorithm at 0° ~65°, and the relationship between the retrieval error and incidence angle is obtained. The results are as follows:(1) The sensitivity of the vertical polarization brightness temperature to the sea surface wind speed is smaller than that of the horizontal polarization.(2) The retrieval error increases with Gaussian noise. The retrieval error of VR first increases and then decreases with increasing incidence angle, the retrieval error of HR gradually decreases with increasing incidence angle, and the retrieval error of AR first decreases and then increases with increasing incidence angle.(3) The retrieval error of AR is the lowest and it is necessary to retrieve the sea surface wind speed at a larger incidence angle for AR.     

Undrained Bearing Capacity of Suction Caissons for Offshore Wind Turbine Foundations by Numerical Limit Analysis

Determining the ultimate capacity of suction caissons in response to combined vertical, horizontal, and moment loading is essential for their design as foundations for offshore wind turbines. However, the method implemented for stability analysis is quite limited. Numerical limit analysis has an advantage over traditional limit equilibrium methods and nonlinear finite element methods in this case because upper and lower bounds can be achieved to ensure that the exact ultimate capacity of the caisson falls within the appropriate range. This article presents theories related to numerical limit analysis. Simulations are conducted for centrifuge model tests, the findings of which reveal the ability of numerical limit analysis to deal with the inclined pullout capacity of suction caissons. Finally, this article proposes an estimation of the ultimate capacity of a 3.5 MW offshore wind turbine foundation on normally consolidated clay based on the typical environmental parameters of Bothkennar, Scotland. Undrained failure envelopes and safety factors are obtained for suction caissons with different embedment ratios. Failure mechanisms, plastic zones, clay stress distributions, and the influence of the skin friction coefficients of caissons are discussed in detail.     

WindSat近海岸风场与美国沿岸浮标对比分析

利用美国近海岸2004-2014年的固定浮标数据,本文对比分析了WindSat的近海岸风速产品。匹配时空窗口分别为30分钟和25公里。对比分析结果表明：WindSat反演的美国近海岸风速产品的均方根误差优于1.44 m/s,并且东海岸风速反演结果优于西海岸。WindSat下降轨道的风速反演结果优于上升轨道的结果。通过浮标相互间的对比分析发现,WindSat近海岸的风速反演结果与近岸海水深度、经度及距岸距离等因素并无明显的相关性。此外,利用2007-2008年的固定浮标数据,本文还对比分析了WindSat和QuikSCAT的近海岸风速反演结果,结果表明：相对于浮标数据,WindSat的风速反演值偏低,而QuikSCAT的风速反演值偏高;总体上来看,WindSat的近岸风速反演结果略优于QuikSCAT的近海岸风速反演结果。以上风速反演的精度均达到了传感器设定的指标,其为进一步的科学研究提供了良好的数据支撑。     

利用卫星高度计风速资料研究海面粗糙度

海面粗糙度对于海洋工程和海洋军事都非常重要,但对海面粗糙度的现场观测资料非常少, 这大大制约了对海面粗糙度的认识。利用 TOPEX 高度计风速资料实现了对海面粗糙度的反演,并利用 1993 年和1998 年两年的资料对西北太平洋海域的海面粗糙度进行了研究。     

浮式风机一体化模拟的计算参数设置影响研究

随着海上浮式风机的大型化发展，针对漂浮式风机的一体化耦合分析越来越重要。本文利用Simo-Riflex-Aerodyn 仿真工具建立OC4-Deepcwind 漂浮式风机一体化耦合模型，分析计算时间步长、初始截断时间、弹性结构单元离散数等计算参数对模拟结果的影响，包括浮式基础运动、系缆张力、叶片受力等。结果表明：当计算时间步长为0.005 s、0.01 s、0.02 s 时，浮式风机的响应结果差别较小，而计算消耗时间相差较大，0.01 s、0.02 s 的计算时间分别是0.005 s的70%、37%。相同工况下，不同参量响应达到稳定所需时间不同，纵荡需要的时间较长，最长达200 s；不同工况下，同一参量达到稳定所需时间也不相同，切出工况需要的时间最短，较额定工况快约60 s。结构单元离散数对塔柱受力影响较小，对叶片变形影响相对明显，当叶片离散数目减小时，响应值增大12%。实际中应根据具体工况选择合理的计算时间步长、初始截断时间和弹性结构单元离散数量。     

Which variables are essential for renewable energies?

ABSTRACT

Essential Variables are defined as a minimal set of variables that explain the state of the system. They are crucial for predicting its developments, and support metrics that measure its evolution. The variables should be relevant to meet requirements of stakeholders and be technically and economically feasible for systematic observation. A definition of Essential Renewable Energies Variables is proposed linked with their identification in several domains in renewable energy using a bottom-up and user-driven approach, and spanning over several years of documented interaction with stakeholders. Lists of variables are proposed in hydropower, solar, wind, and marine energies. It does not comprise the variables relating to social and economic aspects supporting decision making in investment nor those relating to civil engineering that are needed to erect a plant or farm.