中高纬度大气低频模态研究进展

大气低频模态是导致中高纬地区季节及气候变化的主要因素,加强低频模态动力机制的认识对于提高短期气候预测水平具有十分重要的科研意义和应用价值。由于中高纬大气低频环流本身的复杂性,关于其动力机制的研究仍然是大气动力学中重点难点问题。本文简单回顾了激发维持低频模态的前两种机制,即:外源强迫、气流的纬向非均匀性对大气低频模态的影响。从观测事实和模式结果出发,着重介绍了瞬变波与基本气流相互作用激发维持低频模态的第三种机制,且详细阐述了线性假设条件下,瞬变波与基本气流相互作用的动力机制。本文最后针对瞬变波与基本气流相互作用研究中一些尚未解决的问题进行了讨论。     

Simulation of the equatorially asymmetric mode of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models

The tropical Hadley circulation (HC) plays an important role in influencing the climate in the tropics and extra-tropics. The realism of the climatological characteristics, spatial structure, and temporal evolution of the long-term variation of the principal mode of the annual mean HC (i.e., the equatorially asymmetric mode, EAM) was examined in model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results showed that all the models are moderately successful in capturing the HC's climatological features, including the spatial pattern, meridional extent, and intensity, but not the spatial or temporal variation of the EAM. The possible reasons for the poor simulation of the long-term variability of the EAM were explored. None of the models can successfully capture the differences in the warming rate between the tropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is considered to be an important driver for the variation of the AM. Most of the models produce a faster warming in the NH than in the SH, which is the reverse of the observed trend. This leads to a reversed trend in the meridional gradient between the SH and NH, and contributes to the poor simulation of EAM variability. Thus, this aspect of the models should be improved to provide better simulations of the variability of the HC. This study suggests a possible reason for the poor simulation of the HC, which may be helpful for improving the skill of the CMIP5 models in the future.     

Atmospheric Circulation Changes in Response to an Observed Stratospheric Zonal Ozone Anomaly

Abstract

In a sensitivity study, the influence of an observed stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on the atmospheric circulation was investigated using the Fifth Generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) which is a general circulation model. The model was run from 1960 to 1999 (40 years) with a mean seasonal cycle of zonally symmetric ozone. In order to isolate the induced dynamical influence of the observed zonally asymmetric part of the three-dimensional stratospheric ozone, a second run was performed for the boreal extratropics using prescribed monthly means from the 40-year reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40). The main findings are the interdecadal westward shift of the polar vortex at about 65°N and a significant increase in the number of stratospheric sudden warmings during the 1980–99 period. Under the action of zonally asymmetric ozone a decrease in the Arctic Oscillation was identified between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. The lag correlation between the mean Arctic Oscillation at the surface and the daily stratospheric northern annular mode increased in mid-winter. Furthermore, we examined the influence of the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on Rossby wave breaking in the upper troposphere and found a significant westward shift of poleward Rossby wave breaking events over western Europe in the winter. By this we show that the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly has a strong influence on the tropospheric circulation as a result of enhanced dynamical coupling processes.     

基于模糊评判的数控机床零部件制造工艺FMECA研究

以数控机床零部件的制造工艺为研究对象,对其实施改进的制造工艺FMECA,通过梯形模糊数评判的方法确定出工艺FMECA中风险优先数的排序,利用模糊综合评判方法确定出工艺系统的风险等级,有效地找出薄弱工艺环节并采取改进措施,从而提高数控机床零部件制造工艺可靠性.     

一种电费管理系统的设计与实现

针对供电部门所辖范围内的用户,开发出一种能完成电费管理、信息管理等功能的综合管理系统.该电费管理系统采用B/S模式(浏览器/服务器模式),面向对象语言Java作为编程开发语言,动态网页采用JSP技术来制作,网络数据库则使用MySQL,同时采用JDBC接口连接MySQL数据库,Tomcat作为Web服务器,集成开发环境选择MyEclipse6.6.该系统可以较大地降低电力部门的管理成本,减轻供电系统日常管理的压力.     

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr (1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season (April to June), the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator (MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive (negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3 (phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.     

Quantitative assessment of dissolved radiotracers in the English Channel: Sources, average impact of la Hague reprocessing plant and conservative behaviour (1983, 1986, 1988, 1994)

Knowledge of long-term movements of water-masses in the English Channel has been substantially improved using hydrodynamic modelling coupled with radio-tracers studies; nevertheless, the precision of results so obtained is still largely dependent on measurement precision. New tools are now available to make more accurate determinations of radio-tracer distribution: (1) Repositioning of station locations at the same tide reference-time, giving a homogeneous spatial data set, coupled with the possibility of interpolating and quantifying the amounts of dissolved radioactivity flowing through the English Channel; (2) the first measurements of tritium (³H) in seawater on a large scale in the English Channel demonstrate that this fully conservative radionuclide is a clearly identifiable marker of industrial releases; (3) recent campaigns carried out during the FLUXMANCHE II CCE (1994) programme show the general distribution of dissolved radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs, ⁶⁰Co, ¹²⁵Sb, ¹⁰⁶Ru and ³H in the English Channel and the Irish Sea; and (4) the re-utilisation of data from previous campaigns (1983, 1986, 1988) provides indications, at any given location in the English Channel, about the average dilution and distribution of releases derived from the La Hague reprocessing plant. Excesses and losses of radionuclides are now quantified with respect to known source terms; estimates of losses are provided for non-conservative radionuclides, while an excess of ¹³⁷Cs was observed in the English Channel during the period 1983–1994. This excess, which has the same order of magnitude as the quantities released from La Hague plant in the English Channel, could be explained by about 1% of the Sellafield reprocessing plant releases entering the Channel. These results confirm and give a more detailed picture of the previously known distribution of water masses in the English Channel. They lead to clear information about transit times and dilution at this scale, and provide directly comparable data for the validation of hydrodynamic models.     

苏里格气田西区地层水成因、分布规律与控制因素

苏里格气田西区气井产水严重,地层水成因、分布规律及控制因素不明确,成为制约该区致密砂岩气开发的关键科学问题.在大量测井数据、生产动态数据收集的基础上,分析了苏里格气田西部地层水性质及地球化学特征,结果发现:地层水矿化度高,整体属于盐水;水型主要为CaCl2型;pH值范围为6～6.9,呈弱酸性.分析认为:1)地层水主要为...     

Biodegradation and environmental behavior of biodiesel mixtures in the sea: An initial study

Biodiesel, a mixture of fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) derived from animal fats or vegetable oils, is rapidly moving towards the mainstream as an alternative source of energy. However, the behavior of biodiesel, or blends of biodiesel with fossil diesel, in the marine environment have yet to be fully understood. Hence, we performed a series of initial laboratory experiments and simple calculations to evaluate the microbial and environmental fate of FAMEs. Aerobic seawater microcosms spiked with biodiesel or mixtures of biodiesel and fossil diesel revealed that the FAMEs were degraded at roughly the same rate as n-alkanes, and more rapidly than other hydrocarbon components. The residues extracted from these different microcosms became indistinguishable within weeks. Preliminary results from physical-chemical calculations suggest that FAMEs in biodiesel mixtures will not affect the evaporation rates of spilled petroleum hydrocarbons but may stabilize oil droplets in the water column and thereby facilitate transport.     

求解半无限长多孔介质柱体水动力弥散系数的一种最小二乘法

针对半无限长多孔介质柱体,一端为定浓度边界的水动力弥散反求参数问题,先用数值方法求解补余误差函数erfc（x）的反函数,再根据该问题的解析解,通过变量代换,构造一个基于解析解的最小二乘模型来反求水动力弥散系数。最后将该方法应用于一个实例,计算结果表明该方法比erfc（x）近似公式法、配线法、正态分布函数法等传统方法要好。