盾构隧道衬砌结构受力分析的梁—弹簧系统模型

盾构隧道衬砌结构由若干管片及其间的连接螺栓组成。在其断面受力的工程设计中,目前普遍采用梁-弹簧系统模型来模拟其受力性态。其中,梁可分成直梁和曲梁两类。本文在考虑弹簧刚度的轴向、切向和转动效应的同时,从卡氏（Castigliano）第二定理出发,给出了梁-弹簧模型的矩阵式,并论证了直梁-弹簧模型与曲梁-弹簧模型的一致性关系。在数值模拟计算过程中,还考虑了地层反作用力非线性情形和管片接头转动刚度正、负弯矩时的非对称性问题。     

Ore value-tonnage diagrams for resource assessment

An ore value-tonnage diagram has been proposed for assessing mineral resources. Diagrams of W+Mo, and Pb+Zn deposits show a good linearity between ore value and logarithms of cumulative ore tonnage. Diagrams of the massive sulfide, orthomagmatic, placer, porphyry, replacement, and stratabound types are also linear. It is assumed, therefore, that deposits of each of these commodities and these types belong to a single population. In contrast, the ore value-tonnage relations of all the deposits analyzed here is approximated by the combination of two exponential functions. The same feature is seen for deposits of the Cu+W+Mo, Cu+Pb+Zn, and Au+Ag commodities, and of the vein and unconformity-related types. This suggests that deposits belonging to each of such categories are divided into the high and low value groups. We can expect, accordingly, to find high value deposits of such categories.     

岩体中热-水-力耦合模型的新进展

本文综述了岩五力学中热－水－力耦合模型的发展,特别介绍了国际合作项目DECOVAIEX在这一方向上的新进展。     

Regression model for generating time series of daily precipitation amounts for climate change impact studies

The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO₂ induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO₂ climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.     

Lateral and topographic effects in geoelectric soundings

Several two-dimensional structures are modelled for vertical electrical soundings in arrays parallel and perpendicular to the strike of the structure. The models are a horst and a graben within a three-layer medium, a cliff over two layers, and heterogeneities around the electrodes. Apparent resistivity curves are shown for different model parameters and different distances to the two-dimensional structures. Some of the features on the shape of these curves are inflections that may be misinterpreted as fictitious layers, of slopes greater than 45°; some features are simply anomalous peaks. One-dimensional interpretation of a two-dimensional graben model has been performed, in order to show typical errors when 2D structures are interpreted as one-dimensional. A real case corresponding to a landfill near Barcelona and showing strong lateral and topographic effects is presented. This represents combined effects of the above theoretical 2D models.     

区域地下水资源优化管理模型研究

在分析晋、陕、蒙接壤地区水文地质条件的基础上，建立了区域地下水运动的数学模型；采用有限元法与非线性规划相结合，识别了模型的水文地质参数；根据能源基地内的工业布局及用水需求，建立了区域地下水最优分配模型；利用响应矩阵法求得了本区地下水最优方案。最后对最优化模型进行了灵敏度分析，证实了最优化方案的合理性     

ADVANCES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING SINCE 1990

Due to the close relationship between regional climate anomalies and social-economy andsociety development,climatologists worldwide paid great attention to the regional climateanomalies over a long period of time and the corresponding investigation of regional climatemodeling has made great progresses.Since 1990 the regional climate simulations have made a moresubstantial achievement.This paper will focus on the reliability and uncertainties of regionalclimate modeling by global climate models,the advances on regional climate modeling in the worldand the outlook of regional climate modeling.     

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.