中国区域工业全要素生产率的空间计量经济分析

全要素生产率(TFP)是一个国家或地区经济增长质量和技术进步、管理效率提高的重要标志,正确、科学测算TFP对区域经济增长和技术进步及政策研究非常重要。运用空间统计和空间计量经济学的空间自相关Moran指数、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型方法,基于2003年中国大陆31个省、直辖市和自治区的工业企业统计数据,对中国大陆省级区域工业全要素生产率进行了空间计量经济测算分析。结果发现,空间统计与空间计量经济学模型在测算我国省域工业全要素生产率中具有较好效果,利用这种方法测算的2003年中国大陆31个区域全要素生产率的实证结果比较符合工业生产率发展实际;在影响我国省域工业生产率的因素中,工业资本投入是造成工业经济增长率在东中西部地区之间和各个省域之间存在巨大差异的主要原因;劳动生产率水平偏低是制约我国省域工业生产率提高的主要瓶颈因素;2003年我国省域工业生产率增长是由资本和技术共同推动的。     

Toward a more consistent evolution model for the local galactic disk

Infall models for the evolution of the local galactic disk were studied and confronted with a large number of observational constraints from the solar vicinity, inclusive of the white dwarf luminosity function. The models are characterized as follows: 1. The key-functions (SFR, IMF, gas infall rate) are not prescribed by simple laws, but are directly derived from observational constraints. 2. A scatter in the metallicity at fixed age is considered which partly reflects inhomogeous chemical evolution. 3. Special attention is drawn to the internal consistency of the models. 4. In addition to infall of low-metallicity gas, metal-enriched outflows are allowed. The “best” model is characterized by a disk age of ≈︁ 12 Gyr, a SFR which is decreasing over the first half and is nearly constant over the second half of the disk evolution, and by a similar temporal run of the gas infall rate. Moderate metal-enriched outflow can not be excluded.     

Review of methods for the detection and estimation of trends with emphasis on water quality applications

Methods for the detection and estimation of trends which are suitable for the type of data sets available from water quality and atmospheric deposition monitoring programmes are considered. Parametric and non-parametric methods which are based on the assumption of monotonic trend and which account for seasonality through blocking on season are described. The topics included are heterogeneity of trend, missing data, covariates, censored data, serial dependence and multivariate extensions. The basis for the non-parametric methods being the method of choice for current large data sets of short to moderate length is reviewed. A more general definition of trend as the component of gradual change over time is consistent with another group of methods and some examples are given. Spatial temporal data sets and longer temporal records are also briefly considered. A broad overview of the topic of trend analysis is given, with technicalities left to the references cited. The necessity of defining what is meant by trend in the context of the design and objectives of the programme is emphasized, as is the need to model the variability in the data more generally.     

MODELLING RAINFALL-RUNOFF FROM LARGE CATCHMENT TO BASIN SCALE: THE GOULBURN VALLEY,VICTORIA

A lumped parameter dynamic rainfall-runoff model, IHACRES, is applied to the large upland area (more than 4500 km²) of the Goulburn Valley Basin, Victoria, Australia to predict streamflow under different climatic conditions. This paper presents the first evaluation of a rainfall–runoff model at large catchment scale, which is comprehensive in terms of the number of catchments investigated and the number of calibration and simulation periods used. The basin is subdivided into 12 catchments (from 100 to 700 km²), each of which is calibrated separately. High values of model efficiency and low bias are consistently obtained for different calibration sub-periods for all catchments in the basin. Simulation or so-called validation tests are used to select the best models for each catchment. This allows simulation of the water regime during long historical (approximately 90 year) periods when only climatological (rainfall and temperature) data were available. This procedure is extremely important for the estimation of the effect of climate variability and of the possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime in the region and, in particular, for supporting irrigation management of the basin. Analysis of a composite catchment (2417 km²) and its five separate subcatchments indicates that the information content in the rainfall–streamflow data is independent of catchment size. Dynamic modelling of the daily water balance at the macroscale is limited principally by the adequacy of the precipitation gauging network. When a good estimate of areal precipitation is available for a catchment, it is not necessary to consider subcatchment-scale variability for modelling if the only interest is the daily discharge and evaporation losses from the catchment.     

LISEM: A SINGLE-EVENT,PHYSICALLY BASED HYDROLOGICAL AND SOIL EROSION MODEL FOR DRAINAGE BASINS. II: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,VALIDATION AND APPLICATION

A new hydrological and soil erosion model has been developed and tested: LISEM, the Limburg soil erosion model. The model uses physically based equations to describe interception, infiltration and soil water transport, storage in surface depressions, splash and flow detachment, transport capacity and overland and channel flow. From the validation results it is clear that, although the model has several advantages over other models, the results of LISEM 1.0 are far from perfect. Based on the sensitivity analysis and field observations, the main reasons for these differences seems to be the spatial and temporal variability of the soil hydraulic conductivity and the initial pressure head at the basin scale. Another reason for the differences between measured and simulated results is our lack or understanding of the theory of hydrological and soil erosion processes.     

Equilibrium beach profile model for perched beaches

A beach profile equilibrium model for perched beaches is presented. The model assumes that wave reflection at the seaward and leeward sides of the breakwater is the most important process that modifies Dean's equilibrium profile model for non-perched beaches. The influence of wave breaking over the submerged structure is also discussed. Several laboratory data sets are used to analyze the merit of the proposed model for describing the equilibrium condition of a perched beach. A good comparison is obtained. Results show that if the ratio between the water depth above the submerged structure, d, and the water depth at the toe of the structure, h_e, is large, d/h_e>0.5, only minor advance of the shoreline is achieved with the construction of a toe structure. A considerable advance is obtained for d/h_e less that 0.1. In these situations, however, resonant effects may result in an inefficient structure. The proposed model is used to provide an estimation for the required sand volume and the associated beach advance for the case of narrow breakwaters.     

地质图形处理系统设计

介绍了地质图形计算机处理系统的系统功能、系统结构、图形数据库结构以及图形生成与编辑;讨论了在开发地质图形计算机辅助设计或绘图系统时,应如何体现专业特点,如何在数据中表达地质现象的地层和构造意义,如何在地质模型建立中融入专业人员的地质背景知识,以及怎样设计出实际有效的地质图形处理软件系统等问题。      

气候模式并行计算

气候模式并行计算是国内外最近重视开展的在大规模并行计算机上应用的并行软件的开发工作。“气候动力学和气候预测理论的研究”国家攀登项目近年来先后在国产曙光１０００和曙光１０００Ａ并行计算机上开展了气候模式并行计算工作。所用的气候模式是气候动力学项目“八五”阶段设计发展的９层全球格点大气环流模式和从１９９７年起着手研制的１８层全球格点大气环流模式。这是我国首次进行的气候数值模式并行计算工作,阶段性工作取得了合理的并行效率。研究表明以大气环流模式为代表的气候模式是最适合并行计算机实际应用的科研任务之一,国产并行计算机有能力在该领域实际应用中发挥作用。     

利用预测型线性规划评价矿区地下水开采量

建立了某矿区水源地当前和未来不同时期地下水开采量评价的预测型线性规划模型,得到了不同时期的最大开采量及相应的最优运行方案,为矿区发展规划提供了决策依据。      

Rocking amplification and strong‐motion duration

This paper characterizes the ability of natural ground motions to induce rocking demands on rigid structures. In particular, focusing on rocking blocks of different size and slenderness subjected to a large number of historic earthquake records, the study unveils the predominant importance of the strong‐motion duration to rocking amplification (ie, peak rocking response without overturning). It proposes original dimensionless intensity measures (IMs), which capture the total duration (or total impulse accordingly) of the time intervals during which the ground motion is capable of triggering rocking motion. The results show that the proposed duration‐based IMs outperform all other examined (intensity, frequency, duration, and/or energy‐based) scalar IMs in terms of both “efficiency” and “sufficiency.” Further, the pertinent probabilistic seismic demand models offer a prediction of the peak rocking demand, which is adequately “universal” and of satisfactory accuracy. Lastly, the analysis shows that an IM that “efficiently” captures rocking amplification is not necessarily an “efficient” IM for predicting rocking overturning, which is dominated by the velocity characteristics (eg, peak velocity) of the ground motion.