ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS,USA AND CANADA

The Rocky Mountains in the USA and Canada encompass the interior cordillera of western North America, from the southern Yukon to northern New Mexico. Annual weather patterns are cold in winter and mild in summer. Precipitation has high seasonal and interannual variation and may differ by an order of magnitude between geographically close locales, depending on slope, aspect and local climatic and orographic conditions. The region's hydrology is characterized by the accumulation of winter snow, spring snowmelt and autumnal baseflows. During the 2–3-month ‘spring runoff’ period, rivers frequently discharge > 70% of their annual water budget and have instantaneous discharges 10–100 times mean low flow. Complex weather patterns characterized by high spatial and temporal variability make predictions of future conditions tenuous. However, general patterns are identifiable; northern and western portions of the region are dominated by maritime weather patterns from the North Pacific, central areas and eastern slopes are dominated by continental air masses and southern portions receive seasonally variable atmospheric circulation from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Significant interannual variations occur in these general patterns, possibly related to ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) forcing. Changes in precipitation and temperature regimes or patterns have significant potential effects on the distribution and abundance of plants and animals. For example, elevation of the timber-line is principally a function of temperature. Palaeolimnological investigations have shown significant shifts in phyto- and zoo-plankton populations as alpine lakes shift between being above or below the timber-line. Likewise, streamside vegetation has a significant effect on stream ecosystem structure and function. Changes in stream temperature regimes result in significant changes in community composition as a consequence of bioenergetic factors. Stenothermic species could be extirpated as appropriate thermal criteria disappear. Warming temperatures may geographically isolate cold water stream fishes in increasingly confined headwaters. The heat budgets of large lakes may be affected resulting in a change of state between dimictic and warm monomictic character. Uncertainties associated with prediction are increased by the planting of fish in historically fishless, high mountain lakes and the introduction of non-native species of fishes and invertebrates into often previously simple food-webs of large valley bottom lakes and streams. Many of the streams and rivers suffer from the anthropogenic effects of abstraction and regulation. Likewise, many of the large lakes receive nutrient loads from a growing human population. We concluded that: (1) regional climate models are required to resolve adequately the complexities of the high gradient landscapes; (2) extensive wilderness preserves and national park lands, so prevalent in the Rocky Mountain Region, provide sensitive areas for differentiation of anthropogenic effects from climate effects; and (3) future research should encompass both short-term intensive studies and long-term monitoring studies developed within comprehensive experimental arrays of streams and lakes specifically designed to address the issue of anthropogenic versus climatic effects. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODELLING RUNOFF GENERATION ON SMALL AGRICULTURAL CATCHMENTS: CAN REAL WORLD RUNOFF RESPONSES BE CAPTURED?

This paper focuses on the problem of quantifying real world catchment response using a distributed model and discusses the ability of the model to capture that response. The rainfall–runoff responses of seven small agricultural catchments in the eastern wheatbelt region of south-western Australia are examined. The variability in runoff generation and the factors that contribute to that variability (i.e. rainfall intensity, soil properties and topography) are investigated to determine if their influence can be captured in a mathematical model. The spatially distributed rainfall–runoff model used in this study is based on the TOPMODEL concepts of Beven and Kirkby (1979), and simulates runoff generation by both the infiltration excess and saturation excess mechanisms. Simulations with the model revealed the highly complex nature of catchment response to rainfall events. Runoff generation was highly heterogeneous in both space and time, with the runoff response being governed by the spatial variability of soil properties and topography, and by the temporal variation in rainfall intensity. Although the model proved capable of simulating catchment response for many events, the investigation has demonstrated that not all aspects of the variability associated with agricultural catchments (particularly the effects of land management) can be captured using this relatively simple model. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Hydrological runoff modelling by the use of remote sensing data with reference to the 1993–1994 and 1995 floods in the river Rhine catchment

In hydrological modelling of runoff processes, including water balance, various input data and parameters can be acquired or estimated by the use of remote sensing (RS) techniques.The acquisition and use of synoptic RS areal information rather than traditional point information is an important issue in hydrology. Hydrological models allow runoff/water balance in catchments to be calculated and flow routing within flow channels to be done. For runoff and water balance computations land use, soil moisture, detection of snow and ice, digital terrain models (DTM), as well as hydrometeorological information and discharge are important. For flow routing, water level information, geometric–topographic information such as cross-sections for normal and flood conditions, coefficient of roughness and velocity of flow and its cross-sectional distribution are required. In addition, water level information (lower and upper level) is needed for shipping and for design purposes. In the German part of the River Rhine catchment, several focus areas in the December 1993–January 1994 and January 1995 floods were covered with RS data [ERS-1 and airborne SAR, both C-band VV, passive microwave (18·7, 36·5, 89 GHz), TIR, UV, aerial photographs (b/w PAN, b/w NIR)], giving a good opportunity for a comparison of methods. Evaluation is still continuing. The importance of soil saturation for flood generation and, therefore, for flood monitoring, was shown on this occasion. The use of ERS SAR data for soil moisture estimation is currently being investigated by the Federal Institute of Hydrology. Also, the need for emergency schemes for data acquisition and easy, quick and affordable RS data dissemination was demonstrated. The assimilation of RS data with GIS information such as DTMs, including relevant topographic features like dams, which is omitted in currently available raster digital elevation models, is promising. RS altimetry techniques can be a step towards high resolution DTMs for hydrological purposes. Ground truth reference data are still needed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国区域工业全要素生产率的空间计量经济分析

全要素生产率(TFP)是一个国家或地区经济增长质量和技术进步、管理效率提高的重要标志,正确、科学测算TFP对区域经济增长和技术进步及政策研究非常重要。运用空间统计和空间计量经济学的空间自相关Moran指数、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型方法,基于2003年中国大陆31个省、直辖市和自治区的工业企业统计数据,对中国大陆省级区域工业全要素生产率进行了空间计量经济测算分析。结果发现,空间统计与空间计量经济学模型在测算我国省域工业全要素生产率中具有较好效果,利用这种方法测算的2003年中国大陆31个区域全要素生产率的实证结果比较符合工业生产率发展实际;在影响我国省域工业生产率的因素中,工业资本投入是造成工业经济增长率在东中西部地区之间和各个省域之间存在巨大差异的主要原因;劳动生产率水平偏低是制约我国省域工业生产率提高的主要瓶颈因素;2003年我国省域工业生产率增长是由资本和技术共同推动的。     

LISEM: A SINGLE-EVENT,PHYSICALLY BASED HYDROLOGICAL AND SOIL EROSION MODEL FOR DRAINAGE BASINS. II: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,VALIDATION AND APPLICATION

A new hydrological and soil erosion model has been developed and tested: LISEM, the Limburg soil erosion model. The model uses physically based equations to describe interception, infiltration and soil water transport, storage in surface depressions, splash and flow detachment, transport capacity and overland and channel flow. From the validation results it is clear that, although the model has several advantages over other models, the results of LISEM 1.0 are far from perfect. Based on the sensitivity analysis and field observations, the main reasons for these differences seems to be the spatial and temporal variability of the soil hydraulic conductivity and the initial pressure head at the basin scale. Another reason for the differences between measured and simulated results is our lack or understanding of the theory of hydrological and soil erosion processes.     

Review of methods for the detection and estimation of trends with emphasis on water quality applications

Methods for the detection and estimation of trends which are suitable for the type of data sets available from water quality and atmospheric deposition monitoring programmes are considered. Parametric and non-parametric methods which are based on the assumption of monotonic trend and which account for seasonality through blocking on season are described. The topics included are heterogeneity of trend, missing data, covariates, censored data, serial dependence and multivariate extensions. The basis for the non-parametric methods being the method of choice for current large data sets of short to moderate length is reviewed. A more general definition of trend as the component of gradual change over time is consistent with another group of methods and some examples are given. Spatial temporal data sets and longer temporal records are also briefly considered. A broad overview of the topic of trend analysis is given, with technicalities left to the references cited. The necessity of defining what is meant by trend in the context of the design and objectives of the programme is emphasized, as is the need to model the variability in the data more generally.     

MODELLING RAINFALL-RUNOFF FROM LARGE CATCHMENT TO BASIN SCALE: THE GOULBURN VALLEY,VICTORIA

A lumped parameter dynamic rainfall-runoff model, IHACRES, is applied to the large upland area (more than 4500 km²) of the Goulburn Valley Basin, Victoria, Australia to predict streamflow under different climatic conditions. This paper presents the first evaluation of a rainfall–runoff model at large catchment scale, which is comprehensive in terms of the number of catchments investigated and the number of calibration and simulation periods used. The basin is subdivided into 12 catchments (from 100 to 700 km²), each of which is calibrated separately. High values of model efficiency and low bias are consistently obtained for different calibration sub-periods for all catchments in the basin. Simulation or so-called validation tests are used to select the best models for each catchment. This allows simulation of the water regime during long historical (approximately 90 year) periods when only climatological (rainfall and temperature) data were available. This procedure is extremely important for the estimation of the effect of climate variability and of the possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime in the region and, in particular, for supporting irrigation management of the basin. Analysis of a composite catchment (2417 km²) and its five separate subcatchments indicates that the information content in the rainfall–streamflow data is independent of catchment size. Dynamic modelling of the daily water balance at the macroscale is limited principally by the adequacy of the precipitation gauging network. When a good estimate of areal precipitation is available for a catchment, it is not necessary to consider subcatchment-scale variability for modelling if the only interest is the daily discharge and evaporation losses from the catchment.     

基于元胞模型的河道纵剖面调整动态模拟

纵剖面的调整是河道演化的重要内容,其对于河道整治及水沙灾害机理研究都具有重要意义。利用多年观测资料可以较为精确地分析和推断河道纵剖面的调整过程。但是,这种方法不能从过程机理上对纵剖面的调整进行模拟分析。而自然条件下河道边界条件的复杂性使得对河道纵剖面演化的物理过程模拟有很大困难。元胞自动机是一个时间、空间和状态都离散的动力模型,是研究复杂系统动态演化过程的有力工具。本文以黄河尾闾河道为例,利用一维元胞模型对河道纵剖面的调整进行动态模拟。模拟揭示了河道纵剖面在初始形态、不同水沙组合以及河道延伸等情况下的演化规律与趋势。     

Numerical model simulations of continental shelf flows off northern California

The three-dimensional circulation on the continental shelf off northern California in the wind events and shelf transport (WEST) experiment region during summer 2001 is studied using the primitive equation regional ocean modeling system (ROMS). The simulations are performed with realistic topography and initial stratification in a limited-area domain with a high-resolution grid. Forcing consists of measured wind-stress and heat flux values obtained from a WEST surface buoy. The general response shows a southward coastal upwelling jet of up to and a weakening or reversal of currents inshore of the jet when upwelling winds relax. Model results are compared to WEST moored velocity and temperature measurements at five locations, to CODAR surface current observations between Pt. Reyes and Bodega Bay, and to hydrographic measurements along shipboard survey lines. The model performs reasonably well, with the highest depth-averaged velocity correlation (0.81) at the inshore mooring (40 m water depth) and lowest correlation (0.68) at the mid-depth mooring (90 m depth). The model shows generally stronger velocities than those observed, especially at the inshore moorings, and a lack in complete reversal of southward velocities observed when upwelling winds relax. The comparison of surface velocities with CODAR measurements shows good agreement of the mean and the dominant mode of variability. The hydrography compares closely at the southern and northern edges of the survey region (correlation coefficients between 0.90 and 0.97), with weaker correlations at the three interior survey lines (correlation coefficients between 0.44 and 0.76). Mean model fields over the summer upwelling period show slight coastal jet separation off Pt. Arena and significant separation off Pt. Reyes. The cape regions also experience relatively strong bottom velocities and nonlinearity in the surface flow. Across-shelf velocity sections examined along the shelf reveal a double jet structure that appears just north of Bodega Bay and shows the offshore jet strengthening to the south. We examine the dynamics during an upwelling and subsequent relaxation event in May 2001 in which the WEST measurements show evidence of a strong flow response. The alongshelf variability in the upwelling and relaxation response introduced by Pt. Reyes is evident. Analysis of term balances from the depth-averaged momentum equations helps to clarify the event dynamics in different regions over the shelf. A clear pattern in the nonlinear advection term is due to the spatial acceleration of the southward jet around the capes of Pt. Arena and Pt. Reyes during upwelling. Results from a three-dimensional Lagrangian analysis of water parcel displacement show significant southward displacement in the coastal jet region, including a strong signal from the double jet. Alongshelf variability in parcel displacements and upwelling source waters due to the presence of Pt. Arena and Pt. Reyes is also apparent from the Lagrangian fields. A cyclonic eddy-like recirculation feature offshore of Pt. Arena prior to the upwelling event causes large patches of onshore-displaced parcels. Additionally, across-shelf variability in the response of water parcels along the D line includes decreased vertical displacement and increased alongshelf displacement in the offshore direction.     

A crowd sensing system identifying geotopics and community interests from user-generated content

This paper presents a crowd sensing system (CSS) that captures geospatial social media topics and allows the review of results. Using Web-resources derived from social media platforms, the CSS uses a spatially-situated social network graph to harvest user-generated content from selected organizations and members of the public. This allows ‘passively’ contributed social media-based opinions, along with different variables, such as time, location, social interaction, service usage, and human activities to be examined and used to identify trending views and influential citizens. The data model and CSS are used for demonstration purposes to identify geotopics and community interests relevant to municipal affairs in the City of Toronto, Canada.