基于集对分析和模糊集合论的水体营养化评价模型的应用研究

尝试在水环境评价领域引入并应用集对分析和模糊集合论，结合水体营养化等水环境评价中模式识别、等级评价问题的实际应用，将相关的概念和理论进行拓广，定义了广义联系熵和广义相对隶属度。分别建立了基于集对分析的水体营养化评价一级模型和基于集对分析一模糊集合论的水体营养化评价二级模型。我国12个有代表性的湖库营养化程度评价的应用实例表明：所建模型的评价结果与调查结果相符，与单一模糊模式识别结果基本相符；二级模型与一级模型和单一模糊模式相比，评价结果相对全面，更符合用水障碍调查结果的实际情况；而且从广义联系熵判断，二级模型的广义联系熵较一级模型和单一模糊模式大一些，即更好地反映了待评价水样与评价标准两个集合的确定不确定关系和联系程度，从而在一定程度上验证了所建模型的有效性和简便性。文中所用理论方法和所建模型也可推广应用于其他领域。     

饱和土体动力本构模型研究进展

饱和土体的动力本构模型对于土体的动力反应计算分析和岩土工程初边值问题的求解发挥着重要的作用。本文对饱和砂土干口饱和粘土动力本构模型的研究进展情况进行了较为详细的综述，并对其未来发展的一些方向和有待进一步研究的问题作了介绍。     

3D Building Modelling with Digital Map, Lidar Data and Video Image Sequences

Three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction and texture mapping of buildings or other man-made objects are key aspects for 3D city landscapes. An effective coarse-to-fine approach for 3D building model generation and texture mapping based on digital photogrammetric techniques is proposed. Three video image sequences, two oblique views of building walls and one vertical view of building roofs, acquired by a digital video camera mounted on a helicopter, are used as input images. Lidar data and a coarse two-dimensional (2D) digital vector map used for car navigation are also used as information sources. Automatic aerial triangulation (AAT) suitable for a high overlap image sequence is used to give initial values of camera parameters of each image. To obtain accurate image lines, the correspondence between outlines of the building and their line features in the image sequences is determined with a coarse-to-fine strategy. A hybrid point/line bundle adjustment is used to ensure the stability and accuracy of reconstruction. Reconstructed buildings with fine textures superimposed on a digital elevation model (DEM) and ortho-image are realistically visualised. Experimental results show that the proposed approach of 3D city model generation has a promising future in many applications.     

浙江地区地震波衰减和场地响应研究

根据浙江数字地震台网记录的发生在浙江省及其附近海域的中小地震的波形资料，采用互相衔接的三段几何衰减模型，利用遗传算法联合计算，通过在频率域内的分析，测定和研究了浙江地区剪切波的几何衰减和非弹性衰减以及场地响应的特征。     

Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation

Some recent developments in the stochastic modelling of single site and spatial rainfall are summarised. Alternative single site models based on Poisson cluster processes are introduced, fitting methods are discussed, and performance is compared for representative UK hourly data. The representation of sub-hourly rainfall is discussed, and results from a temporal disaggregation scheme are presented. Extension of the Poisson process methods to spatial-temporal rainfall, using radar data, is reported. Current methods assume spatial and temporal stationarity; work in progress seeks to relax these restrictions. Unlike radar data, long sequences of daily raingauge data are commonly available, and the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) (which can represent both temporal and spatial non-stationarity) to represent the spatial structure of daily rainfall based on raingauge data is illustrated for a network in the North of England. For flood simulation, disaggregation of daily rainfall is required. A relatively simple methodology is described, in which a single site Poisson process model provides hourly sequences, conditioned on the observed or GLM-simulated daily data. As a first step, complete spatial dependence is assumed. Results from the River Lee catchment, near London, are promising. A relatively comprehensive set of methodologies is thus provided for hydrological application.     

Effects of spatially variable ground motions on the seismic response of a skewed, multi-span, RC highway bridge

This paper presents a study of the influence of spatially variable ground motions on the longitudinal seismic response of a short, three-span, 30-degree skewed, reinforced concrete highway bridge. Linear and nonlinear finite element models are created for the bridge and linear elastic and nonlinear inelastic time history analyses conducted. Three different types of illustrative excitations are considered: The first utilizes spatially variable ground motions incorporating the effects of variable soil conditions, loss of coherency and wave passage as input motions at the structures' supports. The time history with the smallest peak displacement and the one with the largest peak displacement from the spatially variable ones are then used as uniform input motions at all bridge supports. The comparative analysis of the bridge model shows that the uniform ground motion input with the largest peak displacement cannot provide conservative seismic demands for all structural components—in a number of cases it results in lower response than that predicted by spatially variable motions. The present results indicate that there is difficulty in establishing uniform input motions that would have the same effect on the response of bridge models as spatially variable ones. Consequently, spatially variable input motions need to be applied as excitations at the bridge supports.     

New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 1. Assessment of control climate

Widespread major flood events in both the UK and Europe over the last decade have focussed attention on perceived increases in rainfall intensities. The changing magnitude of such events may have significant impacts upon many sectors, particularly those associated with flooding, water resources and the insurance industry. Here, two methods are used to assess the performance of the HadRM3H model in the simulation of UK extreme rainfall: regional frequency analysis and individual grid box analysis. Both methods use L-moments to derive extreme value distributions of rainfall for 1-, 2-, 5- and 10-day events for both observed data from 204 sites across the UK (1961–1990) and gridded 50 km by 50 km data from the control climate integration of HadRM3H. Despite differences in spatial resolution between the observed and modelled data, HadRM3H provides a good representation of extreme rainfall at return periods of up to 50 years in most parts of the UK. Although the east–west rainfall gradient tends to be exaggerated, leading to some overestimation of extremes in high elevation western areas and an underestimation in eastern ‘rain shadowed’ regions, this suggests that the regional climate model will also have skill in predicting how rainfall extremes might change under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Accuracy assessment of InSAR derived input maps for landslide susceptibility analysis: a case study from the Swiss Alps

In recent years SAR interferometry has become a widely used technique for measuring altitude and displacement of the surface of the earth. Both these capabilities are highly relevant for landslide susceptibility studies. Although there are many problems that make the use of SAR interferometry less suitable for landslide inventory mapping, it’s use in landslide monitoring and in the generation of input maps for landslide susceptibility assessment looks very promising. The present work attempts to evaluate the usefulness and limitations of this technique based on a case study in the Swiss Alps. Input maps were generated from ERS repeat pass data using SAR interferometry. A land cover map has been generated by image classification of multi-temporal SAR intensity images. An InSAR DEM was generated and a number of maps were derived from it, such as slope-, aspect, altitude- and slope form classes. These maps were used to generate landslide and rockfall susceptibility maps, which give fairly well acceptable results. However, a comparison of the InSAR DEM with the conventional Swisstopo DEM, indicated significant errors in the absolute height and slope angles derived from InSAR, especially along the ridges and in the valleys. These errors are caused by low coherence mostly due to layover and shadow effects. Visual comparison of stereo images created from hillshading maps and corresponding DEMs demonstrate that a considerable amount of topographic details have been lost in the InSAR-derived DEM. It is concluded that InSAR derived input maps are not ideal for landslide susceptibility assessment, but could be used if more accurate data is lacking.     

准格尔丘陵区小流域土地覆盖变化的模型测算及空间位置转换

基于3个时相的土地覆盖类型图,在GIS的支持下,利用空间模型、数量模型和土地覆盖变化强度指数对内蒙古准格尔丘陵区五分地沟小流域土地覆盖变化进行数量测算,同时以耕地为例进行土地利用类型空间位置变化案例分析。模型测算结果表明：灌木林地、水域、居民点、草地是研究区域转出为其它土地覆盖类型的“敏感”类型；变化强度结果显示,1979-1987年内,草地、沟壑地是变化强度最大的土地覆盖类型；1987-2002年时段内,变化强度较小,反映出人类对于研究区干扰活动的减弱。耕地空间位置转换分析显示,耕地新增面积很大,并呈均匀、离散分布。     

基于土壤水分动态随机模型的土壤湿度概率密度函数研究进展

简要回顾和评述了几个典型土壤水分动态随机模型和相应的土壤湿度概率密度函数,并基于这些模型的模拟结果就系统随机波动、气候因素、土壤特性、植被条件、地形特征对稳定状态土壤湿度概率密度函数的影响分别进行了分析和讨论,同时还引用相关的实验结果对这些影响进行佐证.结果表明,土壤湿度概率密度函数对以上因子的响应非常敏感,对揭示土壤水分动态和诠释生态水文现象有很好的指导意义.指出未来土壤湿度概率密度函数的研究方向:开发更加逼近真实情况的随机模型;用土壤湿度概率密度函数的思想量化植被水分胁迫、耦合土壤水分动态与养分动态;对某一地区建立其土壤湿度概率密度函数,并用该函数指导其他相关的生态建设和研究.