基于NCEP FNL资料的山西岢岚地区雨雪天气诊断可信度分析

基于山西岢岚地区2005—2014年共1218个雨雪天气日的NCEP FNL资料(1°×1°)与探空资料,采用偏差、绝对差、相关系数和偏差区间占有率的统计方法,对常规物理量(温度、相对湿度、纬向风和经向风)和诊断物理量(T_800-500、T_d800和TT_d700)进行统计分析。结果表明:常规物理量中的温度平均偏差值和绝对差值最小、相关系数值最大,分别为-0. 22℃、1. 02℃、0. 90,可信度最高;而相对湿度的平均偏差值和绝对差值最大、相关系数值最小,分别为12. 31%、19. 68%和0. 63,可信度最低;纬向风和经向风的可信度相差不大,略低于温度;诊断物理量T_800-500、T_d800和TT_d700的偏差值分别为-0. 08℃、1. 50℃和2. 79℃,绝对差值分别为1. 21℃、3. 33℃和4. 14℃,相关系数值分别为0. 95、0. 92和0. 74,偏差值为[-5,5]占总数百分比分别为98. 77%、80. 30%和75. 04%。即T_800-500可信度最高,TT_d700指数可信度最低。     

夏季亚洲阻塞高压识别及其对中国东北气候异常的可能影响:不同再分析资料对比

基于阻塞高压（阻高）客观识别方法,利用1979-2016年夏季（6-8月）NCEP-Ⅰ、NCEP-Ⅱ逐日再分析资料和ERA-interim逐6 h再分析资料对识别结果进行对比分析;并以D类（130°-160°E）阻高为例,讨论其对6月中国东北地区气候的可能影响。结果表明:NCEP-Ⅰ和NCEP-Ⅱ再分析资料对阻高活动天数、发生频次及年代际变化的识别结果差异较小,而ERA-interim与前两种资料的结果差别较大。3种再分析资料下,夏季各类阻高活动天数均与500 hPa高度场存在相应的显著相关区,且形态相近。但前两种资料对于各类阻高的表征结果较为一致,而ERA-interim再分析资料对各类阻高面积和范围的表征偏小。6月D类阻高活动日数与东北地区气温和降水关系密切,D类阻高活跃年,大气环流以经向型为主,东北地区低层低温、暖平流,高层高温、冷平流的结构指示大气层结不稳定,且东北上空为异常低压环流控制,上升气流较强,有利于6月东北地区出现低温多雨天气。鄂霍次克海地区是6月罗斯贝波的重要来源地之一,而6月D类阻高的形成可能与海-陆温差有关。      

双偏振相控阵雷达与业务雷达的定量对比及观测精度研究

相控阵天气雷达突破了全机械驱动天线天气雷达的时空分辨率瓶颈,能够提供更加快速、精细的观测资料.但阵列天线存在性能参数随扫描角偏离法向而恶化的情况,使相控阵雷达定量测量存在困难.本文针对中国华南地区最新布网的双偏振相控阵天气雷达,通过与当地S波段业务雷达在相同区域内的定量对比,评估了反射率因子差分反射率因子的误差量级及其...     

钱塘江强潮河段江道缩窄治理研究

对钱塘江强潮河段江道缩窄治理进行研究。首先,回顾治理方案的比选,江道全线缩窄时河轴线线路和河道宽度的确定原则,以及不同河段的指数放宽率。然后,介绍了在涌潮汹涌、滩涂淤坍变化剧烈的强潮河段,实施筑堤所采取的工程措施的步序与要点。最后,分析论证了大规模江道缩窄治理后河床、潮汐、洪水位及涌潮高度等特征值的变化。可供进一步深入理论研究和工程施工参考运用。     

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Impacts of Coastal Reclamation on Natural Wetlands in Large River Deltas in China

Little information is available on the impacts of coastal reclamation on wetland loss in large-river deltas at a regional scale.Using remote sensing data of coastal wetland and reclamation in four deltas in China from 1978 to 2014, we tracked their continuous area changes in four periods: 1978–1990, 1990–2000, 2000–2008, and 2008–2014. The areal relation between wetland loss and reclamation was quantified and used to identify coastal reclamation mode intensity coupled with another three indicators: reclamation rate,accretion rate and land-use intensity of coastal reclamation. The results showed that coastal reclamation driven by economic development reduced, or even reverse the original growth of delta which was determined by the offset between wetland acceleration rate and wetland loss rate. Generally, the area of reclamation showed a positive linear correlation with the area of wetland loss. The findings imply that human activities should control reclamation rate and intensity to alleviate total wetland loss and maintain wetland ’net gain’.Inappropriate coastal reclamation modes can magnify total wetland loss;therefore, coastal reclamation with a slow increment rate and low impervious surface percent is of great importance for sustainable development in future coastal management.     

南海北部水合物富集区水道特征对比与成因分析

天然气水合物作为现今乃至未来的重要清洁能源之一,其沉积环境和成矿条件的研究一直是国内外地质学家关注的热点问题,我国2007年、2013年及2015年已先后在神狐、和东沙海域多次成功钻获了天然气水合物实物样品。由此南海北部陆坡成为探讨天然气水合物沉积成因与成矿条件的重要试验区。然而,南海北部陆坡区的神狐、东沙及琼东南三个海域均有不同程度的天然气水合物发现,其各自的水深、沉积特征、气源成因及水合物成矿条件各有特点。本文利用地震沉积学原理,结合不同沉积相和沉积演化和古地貌、海平面变化和构造运动等因素,识别出不同类型的地震相。通过对比南海北部陆坡区域的水道系统的MTDs,认为其发育位置、展布和控制因素的不同影响了沉积展布。其中东沙区域位于近物源的上陆坡,神狐区域位于正常的缓陆坡区域,琼东南区域位于远离物源的海底平原区域。并且,水道系统可以分成侵蚀型,侵蚀-加积型和加积型,MTDs也可以分成头部拉张型,中部过渡型和趾部挤压型。     

一种基于灰色神经网络的卫星钟差预报策略

针对钟差预报中灰色神经网络模型种类较多、性质和适用范围尚未具体分析的问题,根据其预报特点,该文提出了一种基于灰色神经网络的自适应钟差预报策略。基于MGEX精密钟差数据进行预报实验,采用不同建模钟差数据量进行相同时间段钟差预报,对3种不同的灰色神经网络模型钟差预报效果进行对比,总结了几种预报模型的性质与适用范围。该文提出的自适应预报策略较好地平衡了几种灰色神经网络模型的特点,提升了钟差预报效果。基于该文策略的实验结果表明:所提策略能够有效利用不同灰色神经网络模型特点,提高钟差预报精度。在1d预报中,该策略较本文提及的其他可靠方法精度提升1%~3%;6h预报中,该策略较较灰色模型等精度提高0.02~0.09ns。     

Status of Satellite Orbit Determination and Time Synchronization Technology for Global Navigation Satellite Systems

In the form of satellite ephemerides and clock parameters, the space datum and system time information of one global navigation satellite system (GNSS) is transferred to users. With the continuous updating in the satellite payload such as the high-precision atomic clock, the monitoring and tracking technique such as the inter-satellite link, and in the data processing technique, the accuracy and real-time performance of the satellite ephemeris and clock error products are steadily improved. Starting from December 27th, 2018, the BeiDou Navigation System 3, or BDS-3, has provided the accurate and reliable basic positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) service for the users in the countries within the “one belt and one road”. This paper has summarized the faced challenges of the precise orbit determination and time synchronization from the regional BDS-2 system to the BDS-3 global system, and the specific solutions at the control segment. In addition, this paper has compared the BDS with other GNSS systems in terms of technical characteristics. Finally, aiming at a higher accuracy and more reliable PNT service, the road map of precise orbit determination and time synchronization technique for the next generation navigation systems is discussed, which will provide a reference for developing the global navigation satellite systems with an even higher accuracy.