华北平原新生界盖层地温梯度图及其简要说明

本文报道新编比例尺为1:1500000的华北平原新生界盖层地温梯度图。该图以近4000口钻井的温度资料和对地温场控制因素的分析为基础,并结合地温场数学模拟计算结果编制而成。圈定全区地温梯度G>4℃/100m及大地热流q>62mw/m²的局部地热异常区44片,总面积为25000km²,为地热能勘探、开发远景规划提供了重要的科学依据。     

地震前兆复杂性的数值模拟研究

本文选用向各异性的准弹性介质模型和震源组合模型，应用有限元数模拟方法，研究了短阶临阶段地震前兆的复杂性。给出：临震异常的显现程度取决于观测点距发震构造的贴近程度。观测点赵接近发震构造，异常越明显。在时间分布上，异常先在外围出现后在震中区出现，呈现为异常从外转播的特征。此外，对于在同一观测点上的多手段（多种物理量）观测，由于不同物理量各自依赖于孕震过程中不同的变化因子，因此，同一观测点上的不同物理量     

1988年澜沧—耿马双主震型地震破裂与震区的现代构造运动

本文在１９８８年澜沧－耿马地震震区野外考察和分析总结本组地震破裂基本特性的基础上，根据震区的大地形变测量资料和弹性理论，从现代构造运动的观点，探讨了本组地震破裂的成因，尤其是两次主震在破裂方面的联系和差异。研究结果表明：①自１９８５年至１９８９年，震区以２．１厘米／年的平均速率向北３７．４°东方向水平推挤了０．６４米；②与此同时，它还兼有绕铅垂铀的顺时针旋转运动，其平均角速度为９．４×１０＾－８度     

托来6.0级地震前波速比异常与中短期预报指标讨论

本文阐述了１９９３年１０月２６日青海托来６．０级地震前河西祁连山中西部的波连比异常并进一步讨论了中短期预报指标。通过托来地震研究得到，波速比低值集中区边缘与低波速比异常值地震条带交汇区可能为未来主震位置，波速比低值在多次中强震后仍然继续异常以及波速比在震前１─６个月显著回升可分别作为较强地震趋势异常和地震发生的短期指标。     

水库蓄水引起的附加应力场,孔压场和形变场

针对５种模拟库区：库心存在正断层；库心存在逆断层；库边存在正断层，水库蓄水在上盘；库边存在正断层，水库蓄水在下盘；库心存在带内由胶结程度更好的介质所填充的正断层，分别计算了水库蓄水引起的附加应力场、孔压场和形变场，并对它们的分布特征作了综合分析。     

鲜水河断裂带上两次地震的反演研究

本文根据鲜水河断裂带上两次三角测量资料,求出了“形变观测值”的协方差矩阵,组成目标函数,用单纯形法反演了1967年8月30日的朱倭6.8级地震和1973年2月6日炉霍7.9级地震的震源参数。     

安徽省WRF模式短时强降水的预报检验

利用2005—2015年安徽省内1162个站点观测资料简要分析了短时强降水的时空分布特征,并利用中国气象局CLDAS(CMA Land Data Assimilation System)近实时降水资料检验2012—2015年安徽省WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)模式对短时强降水的预报性能,探讨不同空间插值方法、检验方法对预报效果的影响,以评估模式预报短时强降水的应用价值和使用注意事项。结果表明:短时强降水主要发生在大别山区和皖南山区;一年中发生次数呈单峰分布,集中于6—8月;日变化呈双峰状,强峰为北京时间下午15:00—19:00,弱峰为06:00—09:00,两个低谷分别为01:00、12:00前后。在两分类评分TS(Threat Score)检验中,各个季节评分均十分低,插值方法对TS评分影响不大。邻域法FSS评分(Fractions Skill Score)检验中,春季FSS评分低,最高仅可达15%,空间窗、时间窗、时间超前或滞后变化对FSS评分的影响不如夏季、秋季明显;夏季,不考虑时间窗时,单独的时间超前或滞后不能提高预报准确率;秋季,模式分别滞后1h或滞后2h预报结果优于同期预报,而超前1h或超前2h预报结果低于同期预报,表明秋季WRF模式对短时强降水的预报有一定滞后性。     

Progress and Prospect of Geophysical Research on Underground Gas Storage: A Case Study of Hutubi Gas Storage, Xinjiang, China

Hutubi Underground Gas Storage (UGS) is an important part of China''s West-East Gas Pipeline Project. Its production safety also plays an essential role in ensuring peaking, emergency and reserve of natural gas in the region. Geophysical observations and research conducted on Hutubi UGS provide significant support for understanding the operation status and ensuring safe operation of the UGS. Since the beginning of the construction of Hutubi UGS and its production, several works including gas field observation experiments,rock experiments and numerical simulations have been conducted. Preliminary observational results show that during the initial operation stage of the UGS, the "breathing phenomenon" in caprock and microseismicity in the vicinity are closely related to the operation of the gas storage. However,rock experiments and numerical simulations show that these activities may gradually weaken with the multi-cycle operation of gas storage. The impact of the operation of Hutubi UGS in the surrounding areas is gradually weakening, and its operation tends to be stable.Implementing long-term and multi-method geophysical observations is able to provide us a better understanding of the relationship between the operation of UGS and regional geological hazards. On this basis, the corresponding geomechanical model can be established to form an effective risk management mechanism for gas storage operation. Thus, it is of great significance to understand its operation status, monitor storage conditions, guide production and operation, and ultimately guarantee the safe production of the gas storage.     

An Integrated Multi-Level Early Warning Method for Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides

Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwestern China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people''s life and property. Fortunately,landslide early-warning is one of the most important tools for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation. However, the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is limited in many remote mountain areas and the stability of the slope is easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes, leading to difficulties to accurately realize early warning of landslide hazards by statistical methods. The proposed warning method is divided into rainfall warning component and deformation warning component because the deformation induced by rainfall has the characteristic of hysteretic nature. Rainfall, tilted angle and crack width are chosen as monitoring indexes. Rainfall grade level that contains rainfall intensity and duration information is graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3-D finite difference numerical simulation method, and then is applied using the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored points. Finally, based on the system reliability theory, we establish a comprehensive landslide warning level method that provides four early warning levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall events. The application of this method at a landslide site yield generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early warnings.     

阴极发光仪在变质岩和花岗岩类岩石中的应用

利用阴极发光仪对一些前寒武纪变质岩(河北,内蒙等地)和西藏及其它地区的后寒武变质岩,以及不同时代和成因的花岗岩类岩石的样品进行了观察。阴极发光与某些过渡元素的含量有关,可以揭示岩石的构造,间接地反映矿物化学成分的特点。本文介绍了阴极发光在变质岩和花岗岩类岩石的以下几个方面的应用:1) 间接地确定变质级;2) 揭示原岩的变余构造,3) 鉴别细粒和发光矿物;4) 研究矿物之间的反应;5) 重建变形构造。