Spatial differences in sand wave dynamics between the Amsterdam and the Rotterdam region in the Southern North Sea

The optimization of the bathymetric resurvey policy of the Netherlands Hydrographic Service requires insight into sea floor dynamics in the Southern North Sea. To study the spatial variations in sea floor dynamics, the bathymetric archives of the Netherlands Hydrographic Service are analyzed using deformation analysis, a statistical and innovative approach for bathymetric data. Based on the uncertainty of the data, our implementation of deformation analysis selects the significant spatial and temporal parameters, and provides estimates and their uncertainties for those parameters. We focus on sand wave areas in the regions of Rotterdam and of Amsterdam. In those areas, dredging takes place to guarantee a minimum depth. The results reveal a difference in sand wave migration between the two regions, over the past two decades. The dominant wavelengths of the sand waves vary within the regions, but we find a similar wavelength distribution for the two regions. We compare our results to earlier studies of the same sand wave areas in the Rotterdam region, showing similar migration rates, but different wavelengths. It is concluded, based on sand wave dynamics alone, that the Amsterdam region should be assigned a higher resurvey frequency than the Rotterdam region.     

基坑开挖对周边环境影响的试验研究

通过基坑开挖的变形测量实例,观测到基坑开挖时坡后土体的沉降和水平位移具有相关性,可以由实测的土体水平位移推算坡后不同深度土层的沉降量,并分别从土体沉降量和沉降曲线的斜率两种特性来确定基坑开挖在坡后土体中产生形变的范围。在判断影响范围时,单纯以建筑物距基坑距离与基坑深度的比值b/H来确定不够准确,应同时考虑基础埋深和沉降分布曲线的形状。     

克孜尔水库跨断层形变变化速率的非均匀性特征分析

对克孜尔水库跨断层垂直形变近40年的资料和水平形变近32年的资料进行了分析。研究发现,①跨断层形变的变化速率具有明显的不均匀性,根据数据序列走势,变化速率的不同可分为6个阶段;②水库施工对跨断层形变有一定的影响,水库蓄水对跨断层形变有显著的影响;③水库蓄水达到正常库容量后的新平衡状态下,跨断层形变速率变化几乎是无干扰背景下变化速率的2倍;④区域应力场的增强对跨断层形变趋势性转折有显著性影响。     

乌鲁木齐形变站水准异常变化特征与地震关系的研究

通过对发生在2003年9月27日俄、中、蒙交界Ms≥7.9级和2007年7月20日特克斯Ms≥5.9级地震前后,乌鲁木齐形变台站垂直形变资料异常特征的分析和研究认为,乌鲁木齐形变台站的前兆观测资料具有较好的映震能力,对乌鲁木齐周边及北天山中西部地区5～6级以上地震有较好的震前反应,前兆信息明显。地震前后形变形态表现为低...     

下卧软弱岩带变形模量取值研究

软弱岩带的变形模量对于工程建设意义重大,当前变形试验方法难以表征原位条件下软弱岩带的变形模量,导致取值偏于保守.本文基于弹性力学推导了下卧软弱岩带变形模量的解析解,建立了一种新的软弱岩带变形模量的取值方法.在现场试验成果的基础上,采用有限元反演,数值模拟成果与试验计算成果较为吻合,证明该计算方法合理可行,较常规方法直接...     

Key controls on submarine channel development in structurally active settings

Submarine channel-levee systems commonly develop in structurally active deepwater settings. Despite their widespread development in such settings, only recently have researchers begun to address the response of channel-levee system evolution to deformation. Key factors which govern channel evolution and morphological development are relative rates of deformation and channel deposition and erosion, and also the number and scale of deformational structures, relative to the scale of the submarine channel. Submarine channel-structure interactions can be split into four end-members: deflection, blocking, diversion and confinement. Where deformation is coeval with channel development, an increase in the relative rate of uplift versus deposition and erosion causes a transition from channel deflection to blocking. Diversion and confinement are linked by the number, scale and orientation of structures relative to the channel flow path. Increasing the number of structures and their scale typically results in channel confinement. Underlying all of these individual controls is the distribution of local accommodation, which is determined by specific structural style. This distribution of accommodation over relatively small (<10 km) length scales strongly affects local channel development in order to attain the equilibrium profile. Knowledge of these controls on submarine channel development can increase our understanding of how these deepwater sedimentary systems evolve and distribute sediment across deforming submarine slopes. Understanding the factors governing spatial variations in channel morphology may also be applied when exploring for hydrocarbon reservoirs in structurally active deepwater settings.     

基于重力差方法检测重力仪一次项格值系数变化

根据重复重力测量中重力差与重力仪一次项格值系数的关系,研究了基于重力差变化检测重力仪一次项格值系数变化的方法,并以滇西重力网1989-1996年观测资料为例,计算了 G793、G854两台仪器一次项格值系数的变化结果.实验结果表明,利用该方法计算得到的一次项格值系数变化值精度能满足地震重力测量规范要求,对于重力仪一次项...     

热带次表层海温对中国东部夏季气候的影响

热带海洋热状况是影响中国气候变化的主要因子之一,为了研究热带次表层海温如何影响中国气候,通过相关计算和合成分析等方法讨论了热带太平洋至印度洋次表层海温异常对中国东部夏季降水和温度的影响。结果表明:当冬季赤道东印度洋至西太平洋次表层海温偏暖(偏冷),中印度洋和东太平洋次表层海温偏冷(偏暖),夏季,长江中下游地区降水偏少(偏多),华南、华北和东北大部地区降水偏多(偏少);中国东部大范围高温(低温)。其可能的影响途径为,东亚夏季风环流对热带次表层海温异常的响应导致了其年际变化,进而引起中国东部夏季气候的异常分布。     

北京“7.21”暴雨过程中变形场引起的锋生与倾斜涡度发展诊断分析

从变形场驱动锋生及通过锋生引起倾斜涡度发展的角度对变形场在北京“7.21”暴雨发生、发展过程中的可能作用机制进行了初步探讨。诊断结果发现：北京地区降水产生时,变形向量与等位温线走向一致或有较小夹角,北京地区有较强的变形场局地锋生过程。锋生函数分析发现,变形项对引发暴雨的低层锋生有重要贡献。锋生能够引发大气动力、热力结构的调整,伴随大气锋生过程的高空急流加强和转竖使得北京地区处于高空急流入口区右侧的辐散区中,其带动低层空气辐合,有助于暴雨的加强维持。分析还发现,“7.21”暴雨过程中,垂直涡度存在爆发性发展,尤其是锋面降水阶段,而大气斜压度的增长趋势与垂直涡度增长趋势十分一致。分析全型涡度方程中与变形场有关的斜压度个别变化项发现,与变形场相关的垂直涡度驱动项异常正值区与垂直涡度爆发性增长区相对应,表明变形场在北京“7.21”暴雨过程中对垂直涡度发展有重要贡献。基于变形场沿其压缩轴方向气流汇合的特点,进一步分析了加入水汽作用的水汽通量变形场与暴雨发生、发展的关系。分析结果发现,低层水汽通量变形场的正值区与暴雨具有很强的相关,且水汽通量变形场包含两部分,一部分为比湿平流,其对未来暴雨区位置有很好的指示意义;一部分为变形场项,其对水汽通量变形场分布起主要贡献。     

基于贝叶斯模型平均的全球洪水中长期预报评估研究

筛选全球5839个水文站逐日径流数据,采用超阈值采样法提取洪水发生频率及时间,将各季节最大日流量作为季节洪水量级,以优选的多个大尺度气候因子的最佳前置月份序列作为潜在预报因子,基于贝叶斯模型平均法构建全球尺度洪水中长期预报模型,并利用均方误差技术指数（MSESS）评价模型的预报效果。结果表明：全球范围内,洪水量级和频率模拟预报效果合格（0.6>MSESS>0.2）的水文站点占比分别为48%和28%;利用前置季节气候因子数据,驱动所构建的洪水中长期预报模型,有效预报了2020年鄱阳湖流域洪水量级将异常偏高。