形变信息预报地震最佳方案的提取

在原来工作的基础上①②［７］，对拟合、滑动外推、聚类分析、模糊综合评判等各个环节做了适当的改进．同时，引入概率统计中的有关知识．选择一个相对最佳评判方案，用京、津、唐地区流动点短水准，短基线资料进行了地震预报的研究，为用形变资料经过评判统计进行地震预报提供了一种可能性。最后，以讨论的方式给出了应用实例．     

蕴震系统自组织演化与构造微动态研究

蕴震系统是在多种环境动力因子作用下，由多个不同性质、不同层次的子系统强烈相互作用所形成的“复杂巨系统”或“复杂的非线性动力学系统”。本文概述了蕴震系统的自组织演化理论，提出并采用蕴震系统方向信息合成法研究了相应的构造微动态特征。     

望儿山金矿生产勘探超前期限与范围合理性的选择和应用

望儿山金矿浅部生产已接近尾声,其生产正向深部转移,但望儿山金矿深部地质条件十分复杂,为使其生产能更好的延续下去,通过对生产勘探的超前期限与范围合理性的研究和探讨,在总结前人经验的基础上,根据望儿山金矿实际,采用价值法的分析,得出其现有生产勘探合理的超前期限与范围.     

新疆某水库大坝变形监测方法研究

结合新疆克拉玛依三座坝线均长达5km左右的平原水库,介绍了由于地质环境影响大坝沉降和位移而建立变形监测控制网、观测方法、数据分析处理以及工作中的一些方法和经验.     

Transient deformation following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion at Kīlauea volcano,Hawai’i

On 30 January 1997 an intrusion on Kīlauea volcano opened a new fissure within the East Rift Zone (ERZ) at Nāpau Crater, 3 km uprift from the ongoing eruptions at Pu’u ’Ō’ō. The fissure eruption lasted 22 h and opened a 5.1 km long, nearly vertical dike 1.9 m, extending from the surface to a depth of 2.4 km (Owen et al. 2000b). During the eruption, the lava pond at Pu’u ’Ō’ō drained, and eruptions ceased there. Pu’u ’Ō’ō eventually refilled in late February and eruptions resumed there on 28 March 1997. Continuous GPS data show a large transient following the 30 January 1997 dike intrusion. After lengthening 40 cm during the initial eruption, the baseline between two stations spanning the ERZ lengthened an additional 10 cm over the following 6 months. A coastal station KAEP also exhibited transient deformation, as it continued to move southward (5 cm) over the same 6-month period. The baseline between two stations spanning Kīlauea’s summit caldera contracted sharply during the eruption, but gradually recovered to slightly longer than its previous length 2 months after the intrusion. We use the extended network inversion filter (McGuire and Segall 2003) to invert continuous GPS data for volume change of a spherical pressure source under Kīlauea’s summit, opening distribution on a nearly vertical dike in the ERZ and potential slip on a decollement 9 km beneath the south flank. Following the 30 January intrusion, rift extension continued below the initial dike intrusion for the duration of the transient. Decollement slip, regardless of its assumed depth, is not required to fit the data. The modeled transient summit reinflation and rift opening patterns under Nāpau crater coincide with changes in observed behavior of Pu’u ’Ō’ō’s lava pond. Rift opening accelerated while Pu’u ’Ō’ō eruptions paused and began to decelerate after the lava pond reappeared nearly a month after the Nāpau eruption. The transient deformation is interpreted as resulting from shallow accommodation of the new dike volume.     

Long‐term landscape evolution: linking tectonics and surface processes

Research in landscape evolution over millions to tens of millions of years slowed considerably in the mid‐20th century, when Davisian and other approaches to geomorphology were replaced by functional, morphometric and ultimately process‐based approaches. Hack's scheme of dynamic equilibrium in landscape evolution was perhaps the major theoretical contribution to long‐term landscape evolution between the 1950s and about 1990, but it essentially ‘looked back’ to Davis for its springboard to a viewpoint contrary to that of Davis, as did less widely known schemes, such as Crickmay's hypothesis of unequal activity. Since about 1990, the field of long‐term landscape evolution has blossomed again, stimulated by the plate tectonics revolution and its re‐forging of the link between tectonics and topography, and by the development of numerical models that explore the links between tectonic processes and surface processes. This numerical modelling of landscape evolution has been built around formulation of bedrock river processes and slope processes, and has mostly focused on high‐elevation passive continental margins and convergent zones; these models now routinely include flexural and denudational isostasy. Major breakthroughs in analytical and geochronological techniques have been of profound relevance to all of the above. Low‐temperature thermochronology, and in particular apatite fission track analysis and (U–Th)/He analysis in apatite, have enabled rates of rock uplift and denudational exhumation from relatively shallow crustal depths (up to about 4 km) to be determined directly from, in effect, rock hand specimens. In a few situations, (U–Th)/He analysis has been used to determine the antiquity of major, long‐wavelength topography. Cosmogenic isotope analysis has enabled the determination of the ‘ages’ of bedrock and sedimentary surfaces, and/or the rates of denudation of these surfaces. These latter advances represent in some ways a ‘holy grail’ in geomorphology in that they enable determination of ‘dates and rates’ of geomorphological processes directly from rock surfaces. The increasing availability of analytical techniques such as cosmogenic isotope analysis should mean that much larger data sets become possible and lead to more sophisticated analyses, such as probability density functions (PDFs) of cosmogenic ages and even of cosmogenic isotope concentrations (CICs). PDFs of isotope concentrations must be a function of catchment area geomorphology (including tectonics) and it is at least theoretically possible to infer aspects of source area geomorphology and geomorphological processes from PDFs of CICs in sediments (‘detrital CICs’). Thus it may be possible to use PDFs of detrital CICs in basin sediments as a tool to infer aspects of the sediments' source area geomorphology and tectonics, complementing the standard sedimentological textural and compositional approaches to such issues. One of the most stimulating of recent conceptual advances has followed the considerations of the relationships between tectonics, climate and surface processes and especially the recognition of the importance of denudational isostasy in driving rock uplift (i.e. in driving tectonics and crustal processes). Attention has been focused very directly on surface processes and on the ways in which they may ‘drive’ rock uplift and thus even influence sub‐surface crustal conditions, such as pressure and temperature. Consequently, the broader geoscience communities are looking to geomorphologists to provide more detailed information on rates and processes of bedrock channel incision, as well as on catchment responses to such bedrock channel processes. More sophisticated numerical models of processes in bedrock channels and on their flanking hillslopes are required. In current numerical models of long‐term evolution of hillslopes and interfluves, for example, the simple dependency on slope of both the fluvial and hillslope components of these models means that a Davisian‐type of landscape evolution characterized by slope lowering is inevitably ‘confirmed’ by the models. In numerical modelling, the next advances will require better parameterized algorithms for hillslope processes, and more sophisticated formulations of bedrock channel incision processes, incorporating, for example, the effects of sediment shielding of the bed. Such increasing sophistication must be matched by careful assessment and testing of model outputs using pre‐established criteria and tests. Confirmation by these more sophisticated Davisian‐type numerical models of slope lowering under conditions of tectonic stability (no active rock uplift), and of constant slope angle and steady‐state landscape under conditions of ongoing rock uplift, will indicate that the Davis and Hack models are not mutually exclusive. A Hack‐type model (or a variant of it, incorporating slope adjustment to rock strength rather than to regolith strength) will apply to active settings where there is sufficient stream power and/or sediment flux for channels to incise at the rate of rock uplift. Post‐orogenic settings of decreased (or zero) active rock uplift would be characterized by a Davisian scheme of declining slope angles and non‐steady‐state (or transient) landscapes. Such post‐orogenic landscapes deserve much more attention than they have received of late, not least because the intriguing questions they pose about the preservation of ancient landscapes were hinted at in passing in the 1960s and have recently re‐surfaced. As we begin to ask again some of the grand questions that lay at the heart of geomorphology in its earliest days, large‐scale geomorphology is on the threshold of another ‘golden’ era to match that of the first half of the 20th century, when cyclical approaches underpinned virtually all geomorphological work. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高耸钢筋砼结构日照变形监测与初步分析

本文叙述了高耸钢筋砼结构日照变形的监测方法与监测过程，初步总结出了日照变形的基本规律。     

楚雄盆地中—新生界构造变形特征

根据近年笔乾研究，楚雄盆地中生代以后经历三期变形作用：早期（燕山期）主要发育于密者挤压逆冲带，显示横向置换特征，中期（喜马拉雅早期）是主变形期，西带显示由SW向NE逆冲，以叠瓦状闻和冲构造系统为其特征，晚期（喜马拉雅中晚期）发育于陡坡和深切割区，表现为重力滑动构造，这些构造期次的确定为研究该盆的发展，演化提供理论依据，亦为寻找油气资源提供靶区。     

辽宁岫岩5.4级地震临震预测

简要介绍了1999年11月29日辽宁岫岩Ms5.4地震成功预报的震前主要预测依据及基本思路。通过对震前辽宁地区地震中短期危险性的分析，确定辽南地区是未来主震的危险地区。根据地震活动的区域特性及岫岩偏岭震群活动的规律，判定岫岩震群的前震性质。利用地震活动性参数计算结果和震前在震中及邻近地区出现前兆短临异常的统计分析，进一步论述了震前预测地震三要素的基本依据。     

利用地磁场总强度预测地震三要素初探

计算了河南省6个台站的相邻时段的地磁场总强度观测资料的自相关系数分析了各台自相关系数的变化与地震的关系，各台的自相关系数曲线对应地震的效果较好，发震时间一般在异常低值后1-8个月，统计得出了各台所对应的地震震级与自相关系数异常面积和震中距的经验公式，利用3个以上台站的经验公式和交汇法，即可以求出震中位置和地震震级，经震例检验，该方法基本可行。