当前我国地震预报面临的主要科学问题及其建议

论述了我国目前在长期、中期和短临预报中所面临的主要科学问题，提出了从哪些方面进行突破的建议。     

滇西北石鼓片岩变质变形特征及其划分

滇西北金沙江结合带东侧的石鼓变质岩系，可划分为石鼓岩群和巨甸岩群。石鼓岩群受区域动力热流变质作用改造，主期变形环境为中、深部构造相；巨甸岩群受区域低温动力变质作用改造，与之相伴的构造形迹属中、浅部构造相。石鼓岩群包含羊坡岩组和露西岩组，巨甸岩群可进一步划分为陇巴岩组和塔城岩组。同一岩群的岩组，变质作用、构造变形特征相同，但变质岩石组合及原岩特征却有明显差别。     

天津地区井水位年变异常研究

近年来 ,中国地震预报学者开始关注井水位的年变异常及其中短期预测意义问题 ,但井水位年变异常判别采用动态图像的定性对比方法 ,表现出一定的随意性。针对这种现状 ,文中引进概率论与数理统计中的随机过程理论与时间序列分析技术 (盛骤等 ,1989) ,提出了“井水位动态年周期法”与“相对时段速率比较法” ,解决了井水位年变异常的定量识别方法 ,并应用到天津井网 2 1口井的观测数据 (1985年以来 )分析中 ,证明了该方法的可行性与有效性。分析结果表明 ,天津井网中有 7口井在首都圈邻区 4次中强 (MS≥ 5 .8)地震之前 ,表现出 17井次的井水位年变异常 ,且多在震前 1.5～6个月内出现 ,从而再次证明了井水位年变异常具有一定的中短期预测意义     

邯郸磁山井水氡异常与华北两次中强地震关系初探

大同6．1级和张北6．2级地震前，邯郸磁山井水氧值都出现趋势性高值异常变化。应用水氧异常的滑动平均值和从属函数的判定方法做进一步分析，结果表明，磁山井水氧值的中期异常与华北地区的这两次中强地震有较好的对应关系；对出现这种对应关系的机理进行了讨论。     

2-D deformation analysis of a half-space due to a long dip-slip fault at finite depth

Closed form analytical expressions of stresses and displacements at any field point due to a very long dip-slip fault of finite width buried in a homogeneous, isotropic elastic half-space, are presented. Airy stress function is used to derive the expressions of stresses and displacements which depend on the dip angle and depth of the upper edge of the fault. The effect of dip angle and depth of the upper edge of the fault on stresses and displacements is studied numerically and the results obtained are presented graphically. Contour maps for stresses and displacements are also presented. The results of Rani and Singh (1992b) and Freund and Barnett (1976) have been reproduced.     

Physical modelling of deformation in the Tasman Orogenic Zone

Structural vergence within the Western Subprovince of the Lachlan Fold Belt is towards the hinterland rather than the foreland, in contrast to many well-known orogenic belts. High angle-reverse faults and upright folds verge eastwards, away from the Australian craton, towards the inferred centre of orogenic and magmatic activity. We designed a series of analogue models to test the anomalous vergence in the western Lachlan Fold Belt, particularly the interaction of a stable Australian craton with Tasman Line geometry, interacting with weaker oceanic or transitional lithospheric material. We found consistently that vergence direction in the models was towards the hinterland, not the foreland, as in the western Lachlan Fold Belt, irrespective of the way the model was deformed. Strength gradients between the oceanic and cratonic lithosphere control the deformation patterns. An important result of the models is that they demonstrate that fold belts with different vergences can be generated without the requirement of subducting oceanic lithosphere.     

From geometry to dynamics of microstructure: using boundary lengths to quantify boundary misorientations and anisotropy

The microstructure of a quartzite experimentally deformed and partially recrystallised at 900 °C, 1.2 GPa confining pressure and strain rate 10⁻⁶/s was investigated using orientation contrast and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). Boundaries between misoriented domains (grains or subgrains) were determined by image analysis of orientation contrast images. In each domain, EBSD measurements gave the complete quartz lattice orientation and enabled calculation of misorientation angles across every domain boundary. Results are analysed in terms of the boundary density, which for any range of misorientations is the boundary length for that range divided by image area. This allows a more direct comparison of misorientation statistics between different parts of a sample than does a treatment in terms of boundary number.The strain in the quartzite sample is heterogeneous. A 100×150 μm low-strain partially recrystallised subarea C was compared with a high-strain completely recrystallised subarea E. The density of high-angle (>10°) boundaries in E is roughly double that in C, reflecting the greater degree of recrystallisation. Low-angle boundaries in C and E are produced by subgrain rotation. In the low-angle range 0–10° boundary densities in both C and E show an exponential decrease with increasing misorientation. The densities scale with exp(−θ/λ) where λ is approximately 2° in C and 1° in E; in other words, E has a comparative dearth of boundaries in the 8–10° range. We explain this dearth in terms of mobile high-angle boundaries sweeping through and consuming low-angle boundaries as the latter increase misorientation through time. In E, the density of high-angle boundaries is larger than in C, so this sweeping would have been more efficient and could explain the relative paucity of 8–10° boundaries.The boundary density can be generalised to a directional property that gives the degree of anisotropy of the boundary network and its preferred orientation. Despite the imposed strain, the analysed samples show that boundaries are not, on average, strongly aligned. This is a function of the strong sinuosity of high-angle boundaries, caused by grain boundary migration. Low-angle boundaries might be expected, on average, to be aligned in relation to imposed strain but this is not found.Boundary densities and their generalisation in terms of directional properties provide objective measures of microstructure. In this study the patterns they show are interpreted in terms of combined subgrain rotation and migration recrystallisation, but it may be that other microstructural processes give distinctive patterns when analysed in this fashion.     

Microstructural evolution of the Seridó Belt, NE-Brazil: the effect of two tectonic events on development of c-axis preferred orientation in quartz

The polyphase evolution of the Seridó Belt (NE-Brazil) includes D₁ crust formation at 2.3–2.1 Ga, D₂ thrust tectonics at 1.9 Ga and crustal reworking by D₃ strike-slip shear zones at 600 Ma. Microstructural investigations within mylonites associated with D₂ and D₃ events were used to constrain the tectono-thermal evolution of the belt. D₂ shear zones commenced at deeper crustal levels and high amphibolite facies conditions (600–650 °C) through grain boundary migration, subgrain rotation and operation of quartz c-prism slip. Continued shearing and exhumation of the terrain forced the re-equilibration of high-T fabrics and the switching of slip systems from c-prism to positive and negative a-rhombs. During D₃, enhancement of ductility by dissipation of heat that came from syn-D₃ granites developed wide belts of amphibolite facies mylonites. Continued shearing, uplift and cooling of the region induced D₃ shear zones to act in ductile-brittle regimes, marked by fracturing and development of thinner belts of greenschist facies mylonites. During this event, switching from a-prism to a-basal slip indicates a thermal path from 600 to 350 °C. Therefore, microstructures and quartz c-axis fabrics in polydeformed rocks from the Seridó Belt preserve the record of two major events, which includes contrasting deformation mechanisms and thermal paths.     

北京正负电子对撞机注入器复测分析

介绍北京正负电子对撞机注和器复测的精度要求，阐述采用波带板激光准直系统与精密水准测量相结合的方法，进行注入器复测的观测、数据处理与调整。根据复测数据分析了隧道地基变形与加速管位置变形及其规律，提出了一些有益的结论与建议。     

The identification and criteria of short-term seismicity gap before a great earthquake

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