鹤壁市春旱动态监测及分析

利用鹤壁市淇县1971～2000年降水、底墒、蒸发资料，建立了适用于对春旱进行实时业务监测的动态模型；根据干旱指数大小确定春旱等级，并通过实例对比分析证实干旱指数在分析干旱动态演变过程中的作用。     

四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究

借鉴美国旧金山湾和香港地区的经验,提出了地质灾害监测预警试验区建设和研究思路。经过近两年的工作,初步建成了四川雅安地质灾害监测预警试验区。取得的阶段性成果主要有:(1)根据现场考察和试验区地质灾害数据库,统计研究了降雨型滑坡的几何特征;(2)建成了由20台遥测雨量计构成的降雨观测网,取得了2002年4月～2003年8月的降雨观测数据;(3)结合历史降雨资料分析,初步研究了雅安试验区的年、日、小时和十分钟最大降雨特征;(4)研制了斜坡岩土体含水量野外监测仪,取得了桑树坡试验点2003年4月～8月的实时监测数据;(5)自上而下分4层研究了斜坡岩土层含水量变化,发现了岩土层含水量变化对降雨过程的滞后性;(6)基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法(AMFP),利用地质灾害因子分析结果,分别计算了雅安试验区地质灾害"发育度"和"潜势度";(7)利用2003年8月23～25日的过程降雨观测资料,对雅安试验区在该降雨过程中发生的地质灾害事件进行了时空预警反演模拟研究,计算出的地质灾害"危险度"分布比较符合实际,"危险度"可以作为预警指数使用。     

Exploration Indices and Mineral Potential Map of the Kuroko Deposits in Northeast Japan

Abstract. Recent discoveries of seafloor hydrothermal mineralization in submarine volcanic centers of felsic magma in western Pacific island arcs are regarded as modern analogues of Kuroko type deposits. Studies of these deposits and their surrounding geology raised question whether the exploration activity for the Kuroko deposits on land which peaked in the 1960's was adequate or not. However, such an evaluation is not easy because the exploration data are about to be lost as a result of the closure of all the Kuroko mines in the area since 1994.
The Metal Mining Agency of Japan (MMAJ), therefore, decided to compile existing data on about 180 Kuroko deposits and related mineral occurrences in northeast Japan as a new Kuroko database.
This study extends a concept called "exploration indices" which was developed based on a case study of the thoroughly surveyed Hokuroku district to draw a potential map of the Kuroko occurrences for the entire northeast Japan quantitatively with a Geographical Information System (GIS). Effective exploration indices include: 1) distribution of dacitic-rhy-olitic submarine volcanic rocks of the Nishikurosawa and Onnagawa stages, 2) distribution of intrusive rocks of pre- and post-Kuroko horizon, 3) low aeromagnetic anomaly caused by hydrothermal alteration of magnetite, 4) low gravity anomaly which suggests depressions in the basement rocks such as a tectonic basin and/or caldera, and 5) nearby existence of vein type deposits. It is concluded that about 33 % of known Kuroko deposits fall within the high potential zone (score=4 and 5) that occupies only 4 % of the entire northeast Japan arc. The Kuroko potential map is, therefore, useful for limiting the target area for Kuroko type deposits in an island arc setting.     

复种指数遥感监测方法

复种指数是反映水土光与自然资源利用程度的指标 ,其实质是沿时间序列 ,反映某一种植制度对耕地的利用程度。联系复种指数与时间序列NDVI曲线的纽带是农作物年内的循环规律。时间序列的NDVI值蕴涵着植被的生长和枯萎的年循环节律 ,经时间序列谐函数分析法 (HarmonicAnalysisofTimeSeries ,HANTS)重构的NDVI曲线 ,可以准确地反映农作物的出苗、拔节、抽穗、收获等物理过程。因此 ,根据时间序列的NDVI曲线的周期性 ,可以反向捕捉到耕地农作物动态的信息 ,进而得到耕地的复种指数。本文依据上述原理 ,提出复种指数遥感监测的方法 ,然后用 1999年至 2 0 0 2年 4年的VGT(SPOT4卫星vegetation数据 )旬合成NDVI时间序列数据集提取了复种指数 ,并利用地面样区观测结果和统计数据进行检验 ,取得很高的精度。     

开封大雾气候特征及预报

利用1961～2000年气象资料，分析了开封市大雾天气分布规律、天气特征，并总结出大雾产生的几种天气形势，找出预报指标。     

The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC

1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-…     

The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity

Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m³ of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area.     

午后多重极光弧观测研究

本文利用2001-2003年南极中山站175天全天空摄像机观测,对午后多重极光弧的出现率及其与Kp指数的关系进行了统计分析,结果表明午后多重极光弧出现率呈一单峰分布,最大发生率出现在1445UT(1645MLT),其位置在1500MLT极光热点(1300-1700MLT)近夜侧的部分。与地磁活动指数Kp的相关统计分析表明,Kp值为2-3之间时多重极光弧有较大的出现率,这说明中等地磁活动情形下午后多重极光弧有较高的出现率。事件分析表明多重极光弧的强度变化与地磁Pc5脉动具有较高的相关性,并且有类似的频谱特征,这说明午后多重极光弧可能与同时出现的Pc5地磁脉动有关。     

沙尘天气频率与相关气象因子的关系

基于北京及其周边14个国家基本气象站1971—2000年气象资料的相关分析,指出风速、相对湿度是影响沙尘天气的关键气象因子,用这两个气象因子构建了月沙尘气象指数。月沙尘气象指数与沙尘天气频率具有较一致的周期性,沙尘天气日的沙尘气象指数是非沙尘日指数的倍数关系。另外,根据月沙尘气象指数在不同月份的分布特征,给出了相应的季节性气象指数计算方法,对14个站计算的结果显示,季节性气象指数与沙尘天气频率有很好的线性关系,这种线性关系具有明显的区域特征。     

西北地区MODIS-NDVI指数饱和问题分析

为了了解西北地区MODIS-NDVI和MODIS-EVI两种植被指数的特点,本文利用美国NASA LP DAAC(Land Process Distributed Active Archive Center)2004年1~12月的250 m分辨率16天植被指数合成的MOD13 Q1数据集,对西北地区不同类型植被NDVI和EVI的特征进行分析,并对西北地区MODIS-NDVI饱和问题进行了初步研究。结果表明:NDVI和EVI对干旱—半干旱气候区植被覆盖度不高的植被类型描述能力相似,月际变化趋势一致。西北地区各种植被类型NDVI比EVI高,NDVI与EVI的差异总体上呈现从半荒漠、草原、农区到林区,随NDVI值的增加而增大的规律。对植被度覆盖度高的阔叶林和针叶林,在植被生长旺盛期,NDVI总在0.8附近波动,NDVI随植被的生长增加的很小,一直维持在一个高且平的范围内,不再能看出植被生长变化的现象,即饱和现象严重;而EVI表现良好,随着植被的生长而增加,能明显地反映出植被生长的季节变化。西北高寒草甸和陕西关中农业区NDVI也出现有不同程度的饱和,饱和时间因植被的不同从1~2月不等。0.8可作为NDVI饱和的阈值。NDVI饱和问题对卫星监测植被的研究和应用会产生误差,EVI能较好地解决NDVI的饱和问题。