A “precariously unprepared” Pentagon? Climate security beliefs and decision-making in the U.S. military

Increasing evidence suggests that climate change poses direct and indirect threats to national and human security. However, the degree to which such knowledge of the risks informs decision-making remains poorly understood for key security communities, including the U.S. Department of Defense. Here, through document analysis and interviews with climate security researchers and practitioners from the U.S. military community, we evaluate perceptions about and the degree to which (i) these individuals believe climate change is a threat to U.S. national security interests, and (ii) the U.S. Department of Defense integrates climate security science into its decision-making. Our research suggests a complex answer. Public statements and reports indicate U.S. Department of Defense leadership considers climate change a security threat of strategic importance, and most researchers interviewed believe the U.S. Department of Defense prioritizes climate security as a near-term threat. However, evidence of climate security threats is only selectively integrated into planning and decision-making. Interviews suggest several barriers and enablers to evidence-based decision-making within the U.S. Department of Defense. Barriers include mixed beliefs in the near-term urgency of the threat, changing political environments, and insufficient co-production of actionable science across the levels of war, including issues of data collection, sharing, and analysis. Enablers include increased awareness after climate-related impacts, strong leadership support, and knowledge transfer and convening forums. Improved insight into the production and use of climate security knowledge is crucial for the task of safeguarding human and national security in a changing climate.     

陕西省２００９年气候影响评

从近8年的20多例为地方政府气象决策保障服务中选择一例具有特殊性、代表性的气象决策保障服务一航空拍摄,做一较细致分析,得出一些体会和经验是：充分利用现代化设备,仔细分析,大胆服务,树立形象,扩大影响,提高声誉。     

Test application of Bayesian Programming: Adaptive water quality management under uncertainty

A new method, Bayesian Programming (BP), developed by Harrison [Harrison KW. Multi-stage decision-making under uncertainty and stochasticity: Bayesian Programming. Adv Water Resour, submitted for publication] is tested on a case study involving optimal adaptive management of a river basin. The case study considers anew the process of permitting pulp mills on the Athabasca River in Alberta, Canada. The problem has characteristics common to many environmental management problems. There is uncertainty in the water quality response to pollutant loadings that will not be completely resolved with monitoring and the resolution of this uncertainty is impeded by the stochastic behavior of the water quality system. A two-stage adaptive management process is optimized with BP. Based on monitoring data collected after implementation of the first-stage decision, the uncertainties are updated prior to the second decision stage using Bayesian analysis. The worth of this two-stage adaptive management approach to this problem and the worth of monitoring are evaluated. Conclusions are drawn on the general practicality of BP for adaptive management. Potential strategies are outlined for extending the BP approach to secure further benefits of adaptive management.     

Overcoming barriers to knowledge exchange for adaptive resource management; the perspectives of Australian marine scientists

The sustainable science-based management of natural resources requires knowledge exchange between scientists and environmental decision-makers; however, evidence suggests that information flow is inhibited by a range of barriers. To date, our understanding of the range and importance of factors limiting knowledge exchange between scientists and decision-makers is based primarily on the perceptions of decision-makers, while the perceptions of scientists have been largely overlooked. This study addresses this knowledge gap by quantitatively assessing the perceptions of scientists, represented by a sample of 78 Australian marine scientists, regarding (i) the role and importance of engaging with environmental decision-makers on a personal level, (ii) the role and importance of engaging with environmental decision-makers at the institutional level, (iii) current barriers to engaging with environmental decision-makers and (iv) options for overcoming barriers to engaging with environmental decision-makers. Survey results suggest that Australian marine scientists feel that they have an obligation to engage decision-makers in their science, and that engaging with and communicating to environmental decision-makers is important on a personal level. This study also identifies a range of barriers that impede engagement activities, including inadequate measures of science impact that do not account for engagement activities, a lack of organisational support for engagement activities, insufficient time to conduct engagement activities in addition to other responsibilities and a lack of funding to support engagement activities. To overcome these barriers, participants identified the need for institutional innovation by research institutions, research funders and decision-making agencies alike to promote a culture whereby knowledge exchange activities are legitimised as core business for research scientists, and recognised and rewarded appropriately. Although difficulties exist in implementing such institutional innovations, doing so will improve two-way knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers and improve the likely success of environmental management.     

渭南市高炮火箭人工增雨作业分析

利用1954年～2003年的气象要素建立气象信息数据库,对冬小麦不同生长期的生长状况和气象因子建立相关关系,从而建立规则库,最终应用Vb建立操作服务平台。系统投入业务运行以来效果良好,提高了服务的客观性和及时性。     

Role of perceptions and knowledge in the impact assessment for the extension of Mainport Rotterdam

The Dutch government wants to expand Mainport Rotterdam, one of the largest ports in the world, by land reclamation in the North Sea. This may affect the Wadden Sea, a unique wetlands area protected by the European Bird and Habitat Directives. To assess the impact of the port extension on the Wadden Sea, an Appropriate Assessment procedure was carried out. We investigated how stakeholders’ perceptions were dealt with and how knowledge was used in this decision-making process. Our findings form an argument for practitioners in marine and coastal management to choose a process-oriented approach to deal with complex issues.     

山东飞机人工增雨作业决策系统

在由11个子系统组成的飞机人工增雨作业决策系统中，利用在人工增雨作业前能得到的探空、雷达和云的宏观物理量等资料，确定可播区的空间分布和播云时间。运用产生降水的指标性物理量分布、卫星云图降水概率分布和模式的降水预报等综合确定作业区的地理位置。决策系统还包括航线设计和效益估算。该系统使得飞机人工增雨作业的指挥决策系统化，可减少盲目作业带来的损失。