Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

一个气候系统模式FGCM0对东亚副热带西风急流季节变化的模拟

对IAP/LASG气候系统模式试验版(FGCM0)模拟对流层上层东亚副热带西风急流季节变化的能力进行评估, 分析FGCM0模拟的东亚副热带西风急流季节变化与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料的差异及其与对流层大气南北温差的关系.结果表明, FGCM0模拟的冬季和夏季西风急流垂直结构、水平结构和季节变化与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料基本一致, 但FGCM0模拟的东亚副热带西风急流在高原附近地区冬季和夏季都偏强, 沿115°E中国大陆地区上空模拟的急流强度冬季偏弱, 夏季明显偏强.夏季FGCM0模拟的急流中心位于高原东北部的40°N附近地区, 强度偏强, 位置偏东, 而此时NCEP/NCAR再分析资料中的急流中心却位于高原北侧.此外, FGCM0模拟的急流在5月份的北移和8月份的最北位置上与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料差异较大.分析副热带西风急流与对流层南北温差的季节变化发现, 急流出现的位置总是对应着对流层南北温度差较大区域, 与再分析资料相比, FGCM0模拟的温度差在冬季基本一致, 夏季差异较大.与降水的模拟相联系发现, FGCM0模拟得到的与实际不一致的偏西偏北的强降水中心与200 hPa上的东亚副热带急流位置和强度不合理具有密切关系.相关分析表明, 冬季西风急流强度与日本南部海区的感热通量、夏季与青藏高原地区的地面感热通量有明显的正相关关系, 而FGCM0能够较好地模拟冬季西风急流强度与地面感热通量之间的相关关系, 但模拟夏季青藏高原地区感热通量和副热带西风急流之间相关关系的能力相对较差, 夏季西风急流强度与OLR之间却有一定的关系.由于与强降水区相联系的OLR低值区对应着较大的对流凝结加热, 再加上模式中位于青藏高原东南部较大的地面感热加热, 增强了对流层的南北向温度差, 进而影响东亚副热带急流强度和位置.因此, FGCM0模拟的夏季副热带急流位置和强度偏差与高原附近地区的地面感热加热、大气射出长波辐射等的模拟偏差具有密切的关系.     

梅雨期中国东部降水的时空变化及其与大气环流、海温的关系

利用1961～2000年中国台站降水资料、 NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及扩展重建海平面温度 (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures, ERSST) 资料, 采用EOF、小波变换、合成及相关方法探讨中国东部梅雨期降水的时空变化及其环流、水汽输送和海温异常特征.分析指出中国东部梅雨期 (6月11日～7月10日) 降水存在三种主要空间型: 江南北部多雨型、长江流域多雨型和江淮平原多雨型.三种降水型都存在多时间尺度特征, 由于年际和年代际振荡的周期和强度随时间的变化有不同表现, 三种雨型旱涝年出现的年份有所不同.三种雨型对应的东亚夏季风环流各子系统的强度、位置、水汽输送等也存在明显差异.梅雨期三种雨型与冬季海温的研究表明:赤道东太平洋海温偏高有利于出现江南北部降水型; 赤道印度洋、南海和西太平洋黑潮海温偏高有利于出现长江流域降水型; 北太平洋中纬度海温偏高则有利于出现江淮平原降水型.     

Modeling the length of day and extrapolating the rotation of the Earth

The stochastic behavior of the length of day (LOD) process is analyzed and is modeled within statistical accuracy on a time-scale ranging from weeks to millennia by a three-component model comprising a global Brownian motion process, decadal fluctuations, and a 50-day Madden–Julian oscillation. While the model is intended to be phenomenological, some possible physical models underlying the three components are speculated upon. The model is applied to estimate long-range extrapolation errors. For example, it predicts a standard error of 1 h in the clock-time correction ΔT for extrapolation by 1,500 years from 500 to 2000 BC.     

Single GPS receiver time-relative positioning with loop misclosure corrections

Time-relative positioning makes use of observations taken at two different epochs and stations with a single global positioning system (GPS) receiver to determine the position of the unknown station with respect to the known station. The limitation of this method is the degradation over time of the positioning accuracy due to the temporal variation of GPS errors (ionospheric delay, satellite clock corrections, satellite ephemerides, and tropospheric delay). The impact of these errors is significantly reduced by adding to the one-way move from the known to the unknown station, a back move to the known station. A loop misclosure is computed from the coordinates obtained at the known station at the beginning and at the end of the loop, and is used to correct the coordinates of the unknown station. The field tests, presented in this paper, show that using the loop misclosure corrections, time-relative positioning accuracy can be improved by about 60% when using single frequency data, and by about 40% with dual frequency data. For a 4-min processing interval (an 8-min loop) and a 95% probability level, errors remain under 20 cm for the horizontal components and 36 cm for the vertical component with single frequency data; and under 11 cm for the horizontal components and 29 cm for the vertical component with dual frequency data.     

A summer and winter apportionment of particulate matter at urban and rural areas in northern France

The apportionment of atmospheric aerosols undertaken in Northern France during two sampling campaigns allowed to determine the influence of the atmospheric contribution of a heavy industrialized urban center on the particulate matter composition at a nearby rural site. The concentrations of major components and trace elements sampled by bulk filtration have been determined on June–July 2000 and January–February 2001, and the comparison of these two campaigns shows very well the importance of wind directions. The sources of 10 trace elements (Al, Ba, Cu, Fe, K, Mn, Pb, Sr, Ti and Zn) and 7 major components (Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻, NH₄⁺, Na, Mg and Ca) are better identified by studying their elemental contribution at each sampling site according to wind sectors. This kind of study shows that the concentrations recorded at the urban sampling site are always higher than those observed at the rural site as well during the summer campaign (about + 35%) as during the winter campaign (+ 90%), because of the predominance of the W–NW wind sector, corresponding to the influence of the urban and industrialized areas.     

东经120°E中间层和低热层大气潮汐及其季节变化特征

利用为期一年的卫星遥感温度（SABER/TIMED）资料重建了120°E子午圈内中间层和低热层大气潮汐各主要频率分量（周日、半日和8小时潮汐）.这些主要频率分量随高度振幅增大，在97 km高度达到显著的振幅；其中迁移性周日潮汐在97 km高度出现极大振幅，然后随高度衰减.本文从考察迁移性成分和非迁移性成分各自在总潮汐中贡献角度出发，着重讨论了那些对形成该子午圈中97 km高度上整体潮汐扰动起控制作用的潮汐成分.结果显示，对周日和半日频率这两种潮汐而言，迁移性成分控制了它们的总体时空分布.在春分季节，迁移性周日潮的控制作用最显著，决定了赤道和两半球热带的活动中心；其中北半球副热带地区的季节变化形势与以往利用武汉（30°N，114°E）流星雷达风测量资料开展分析得到的结果是一致的；其他季节受非迁移性成分明显影响，例如，在本文关注的2005年中，夏至季节受（1，0）模、（1，-3）模和（1，-2）模的共同影响形成了从赤道向南延伸的活动中心，极值中心位于赤道附近，振幅达到了20 K以上，是全年的最大值.受迁移性成分控制，半日潮活动主要出现在两半球热带地区，北半球活动中心位于秋分季节（振幅达到13 K），南半球活动中心位于春分和夏至之间.其他季节受非迁移成分的影响，形成若干分布在两半球的活动中心.在本文关注的40°S～40°N范围内，与周日潮和半日潮相比，8小时潮汐具有显著较低的振幅；另外，虽然迁移性成分在一年中的大部分时间系统地分布在两半球热带地区，但是非迁移成分具有与迁移性成分相当或更大的振幅，在整体上控制了这种潮汐的时空分布.     

Dimorphism in Calceola sandalina (Linneé, 1771)

Based on studying the ontogenetic development of Calceola sandalina in the Early Devonian Yukiang Formation from Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, South China, it is for the first time to issue the evidence indicating the existence of sexual dimorphism in Calceola sandalina. The new discovery will add important data on sexual dimorphism throughout the non-colonial fossil metazoan, and it also may throw lights on studying the taxonomy and phylogeny of Calceola sandalina and its relevant taxa.     

《翁同龢日记》中的冷暖感知记录及其对气候冷暖变化的指示意义

依据清代《翁同龢日记》（以下简称《日记》）中逐日的冷暖感知记录和同时期的器测月均温资料，采用相关分析和线性回归分析等统计方法，以月为基本统计单元，对《日记》中冷暖感知记录反演气候变化的能力进行了分析。结果说明，《日记》中的冷暖感知记录可以用于气候变化研究，但是最佳代用指标因气候变化的时间尺度和季节而异。总体而言，极热、偏热、偏凉、极冷日数对年内月到季时间尺度气候变化的代表性较好，其中尤以偏凉和极冷日数最佳。 对于年际尺度上的气候波动，从季节对比来看，冷暖感知日数反演夏季（6-8月份）月均温的能力最差；从冷暖感知类型对比来看，极冷日数是多个月份月均温的最佳代用指标，1、3、5、9和12月份的最佳代用指标均是极冷日数。并且，还可以依据极冷日数的多寡识别极端冷、极端热年。由此可见，古代私人日记中的冷暖感知记录可以用于反演历史时期气候的冷暖变化。     

新疆乌兰乌苏物候变化规律及其对气候变化的响应

分析新疆乌兰乌苏农业气象试验站1980—2002年物候与相应气候因子资料,得出乌兰乌苏23a来气温增高,降水增多,气候增暖增湿;候鸟停留时间增长,与积温、日照时数和降水量的年变化趋势一致,除降水外,其他均存在显著正相关关系;木本植物生育期延长,与4—10月平均气温、平均相对湿度、总日照时数和总降水量趋势一致;初霜和终霜均推迟,无霜期缩短;初雪和初次积雪提前,终雪推迟,冬季雪日增长;积雪开始融化提前,完全融化推迟,融化时间增长;土壤表面开始解冻日期趋势提前,而土壤表面开始冻结日期趋势推迟。另外,通过物候与气象因子建立的最优回归方程,获得物候对气候响应的定量关系,为生态环境研究提供一定的理论依据。