Prediction in a socio-hydrological world

Water resource management involves public investments with long-ranging impacts that traditional prediction approaches cannot address. These are increasingly being critiqued because (1) there is an absence of feedbacks between water and society; (2) the models are created by domain experts who hand them to decision makers to implement; and (3) they fail to account for global forces on local water resources. Socio-hydrological models that explicitly account for feedbacks between water and society at multiple scales and facilitate stakeholder participation can address these concerns. However, they require a fundamental change in how we think about prediction. We suggest that, in the context of long-range predictions, the goal is not scenarios that present a snapshot of the world at some future date, but rather projection of alternative, plausible and co-evolving trajectories of the socio-hydrological system. This will both yield insights into cause–effect relationships and help stakeholders identify safe or desirable operating space.     

重要经济发展区域间海运网络时空演变特性分析

“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家（MSR）、金砖国家（BRICS）、美日韩（AJK）是重要经济发展区域。研究其海运网络的时空演变规律有助于国家层面的贸易竞争均衡分析,对海运战略科学部署和智慧应对具有十分重要的意义。AIS（Automatic Identification System）数据具有实时性,且已基本覆盖全球港口的近海区域,能为海运网络提供及时分析的数据支撑。本文利用AIS数据挖掘MSR、BRICS、AJK的运输网络时空演变规律,结果表明,MSR散货、集装箱、油轮的内部网络结构的变化明显大于AJK和BRICS,说明“一带一路”倡议促进了MSR的内部海运贸易;MSR、AJK和BRICS的外部网络结构变化2013-2016年都较大,说明“一带一路”倡议的实施期间,MSR、AJK和BRICS 3个区域之间的海运贸易变化较大;3个区域的集装箱、油轮吞吐量加权的内外部海运网络结构2015-2016年较2013-2014年更为稳定,随着“一带一路”倡议的实施,这3个区域内部和区域之间的吞吐量加权海运网络结构变化幅度逐步减小。“一带一路”倡议对不同的经济发展区域的影响不同,对MSR的内外部海运网络结构都产生了一定影响,对BRICS散货、集装箱、油轮型海运网络的影响呈现差异化特征,对AJK内部海运网络没有影响,对AJK的外部网络产生了部分影响。提高MSR的海运贸易吞吐量,提升MSR在海运网络中的贸易地位,仍是当前的发展重点。     

基于卫星漂流浮标轨迹的东海边界交换估算方法研究

东海陆架斜坡和台湾海峡是我国东部近海从大洋和南海获取热量、盐量和营养盐的两个主要边界。本文建立了一个不规则分布漂流浮标轨迹的网格化处理方法和跨边界交换估算方法。该方法得到的漂流浮标轨迹累计次数再现了黑潮主轴位置并表明主轴两侧浮标存在显著的跨陆坡交换现象。浮标轨迹的统计结果揭示了东海陆坡上水体交换具有显著的区域性,即陆坡上存在7个主要交换区,3个交换区以入流为主,另4个交换区以出流为主。研究也表明跨东海陆坡交换具有明显的季节变化特征,秋季交换最剧烈且入流最显著,春季最弱。穿越台湾海峡的交换主要以北向入流为主,海峡东侧的交换更加明显,一年之中夏季最显著,春、冬季最弱。     

Local integrals and the plane motion of a point in rotating systems

This paper deals with the plane motion of a star in the gravitational field of a system which is in a steady state and rotates with a constant angular velocity. For these systems a class of potentials permitting a local integral, linear with respect to the velocity components, has been found. The concept of the local integral itself was introduced by one of the authors of the present paper (Antonov, 1981). A detailed model has been constructed. The corresponding domain of the particle motion and the form of the trajectory coils have been determined. The result is compared with the motion in a more realistic potential.     

Sources and Transport of Urban and Biomass Burning Aerosol Black Carbon at the South–West Atlantic Coast

The total extent of the atmospheric impacts associated to the aerosol black carbon (BC) emissions from South America is not completed described. This work presents results of BC monitored during three scientific expeditions (2002, 2003 and 2004) on board of a Brazilian oceanographic vessel Ary Rongel that covered the South–West Atlantic coast between 22–62°S. This latitudinal band encloses major urban regions of South America and the outflow region of the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergent Zone), which is an important mechanism of advective transport of heat, moisture, minor gases and aerosols from the South America continental land to the Southern Atlantic Ocean. Our results showed that aerosol BC enhanced concentrations from urban/industrial origin can be transported to the South–West Atlantic Ocean due to the migration of sub-polar fronts that frequently reach tropical/subtropical regions. Despite the decrease of aerosol BC concentrations southwards (from ∼1,200 ng m⁻³ at latitude 22°S to ∼10 ng m⁻³ at latitude 62°S), several observed peak events were attributed to regional urban activities. Most of such events could be explained by the use of air mass back trajectories analysis. In addition, a global model simulation is presented (Goddard Institute for Space Studies – GISS GCM BC simulation) to explore the origins of aerosol BC in the South–West Atlantic. The model allowed isolating the biomass emissions from South America and Africa and industrial (non-biomass) pollution from other regions of the globe. This model suggests that the apportionment of about half of the aerosol BC at the South–West Atlantic may derive from South American biomass burning.     

基于AIS数据的船舶行为特征挖掘与预测:研究进展与展望

船舶行为特征挖掘与预测是水上智能交通系统的重要研究内容,也是交通运输工程领域的关键科学问题。为系统研究基于船舶自动识别系统（Automatic Identification System, AIS）数据的船舶行为特征挖掘与预测的研究现状与发展趋势,本文首先针对Web of Science(WOS)和中国知网（China National Knowledge Infrastructure, CNKI）收录的文献,用知识图谱分析软件VOSviewer对文献关键词进行处理,从文献计量学的角度生成高频关键词的聚类图谱和趋势演化。然后对基于AIS数据的水上交通要素挖掘、船舶行为聚类和船舶行为预测3个主题的研究内容、方法、存在问题进行了系统分析和展望,研究结果表明：① 在基于AIS的水上交通要素挖掘方面,主要集中在对AIS数据中表征船舶行为空间特征和交通流的时间特征单独挖掘分析,缺乏对AIS数据的时间、空间以及环境因素特征的关联挖掘,对于如何进行交通要素的关联融合挖掘研究还有待深入探索;② 在船舶行为聚类方面,研究主要是运用无监督聚类方法研究船舶航迹点和航迹段聚类,得到船舶航行行为模式的时空分布和船舶操纵意图辨识模型,然而融合多维特征的船舶轨迹的相似性计算方法、聚类参数的自适应选取以及船舶行为的语义特征建模有待进一步研究;③ 在船舶行为预测方面,主要集中在基于动力学方程、传统智能算法和深度循环神经网络的船舶行为预测研究,考虑船舶行为的随机性、多样性和耦合性的特点,运用混合神经网络模型以及神经网络与向量机、注意力机制相结合的模型实现多维的船舶航行行为特征的实时预测将是新的研究方向。最后提出了基于语义模型的船舶行为特征挖掘、基于深度卷积神经网络的船舶行为的预测和基于知识图谱的船舶行为特征挖掘和预测结果可视化等有待进一步研究的方向。     

隧道下穿既有结构物引起的地表沉降控制标准研究

解决好隧道下穿既有结构物引起的地表沉降问题,对城市地下交通和高速铁路的建设具有重要的意义.在调研国内大量隧道下穿开挖引起的地表沉降控制标准和方法的基础上,根据隧道下穿公路、铁路、隧道和建筑物时引起的地表沉降的不同特点,结合隧道的施工、开挖面积、埋深和工程地质条件等因素,对隧道下穿不同的结构物提出不同的控制沉降措施和建议...     

Ground-Based In Situ Measurements of Near-Surface Aerosol Mass Concentration over Anantapur: Heterogeneity in Source Impacts

Surface measurements of aerosol physical properties were made at Anantapur(14.62°N,77.65 °E,331 m a.s.l),a semiarid rural site in India,during August 2008-July 2009.Measurements included the segregated sizes of aerosolsas as well as total mass concentration and size distributions of aerosols measured at low relative humidity(RH<75%) using a Quartz Crystal Microbalance(QCM) in the 25-0.05 μm aerodynamic diameter range.The hourly average total surface aerosol mass concentration in a day varied from 15 to 70 μg m-3,with a mean value of 34.02±9.05μgm-3 for the entire study period.A clear diurnal pattern appeared in coarse,accumulation and nucleation-mode particle concentrations,with two local maxima occurring in early morning and late evening hours.The concentration of coarse-mode particles was high during the summer season,with a maximum concentration of 11.81±0.98μgm-3 in the month of April,whereas accumulationmode concentration was observed to be high in the winter period contributed >68% to the total aerosol mass concentration.Accumulation aerosol mass fraction,A f(=Ma/Mt) was highest during winter(mean value of Af～0.80) and lowest(Af～0.64) during the monsoon season.The regression analysis shows that both R eff and R m are dependent on coarse-mode aerosols.The relationship between the simultaneous measurements of daily mean aerosol optical depth at 500 nm(AOD500) and PM 2.5 mass concentration([PM2.5]) shows that surface-level aerosol mass concentration increases with the increase in columnar aerosol optical depth over the observation period.     

Mapping abandoned agricultural land in Kyzyl-Orda,Kazakhstan using satellite remote sensing

In many regions worldwide, cropland abandonment is growing, which has strong and known environmental and socio-economic consequences. Yet, spatially explicit information on the spatial pattern of abandonment is sparse, particularly in post-Soviet countries of Central Asia. When thriving reaching for key Millennium Development Goals such as food security and poverty reduction, the issue of cropland abandonment is critical and therefore must be monitored and limited, or land use transformed into an alternative one. Central Asia experienced large changes of its agricultural system after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Land degradation, which started already before independence, and cropland abandonment is growing in extent, but their spatial pattern remains ill-understood. The objective of this study was to map and analyse agricultural land use in the irrigated areas of Kyzyl-Orda, southern Kazakhstan, Central Asia. For mapping land use and identifying abandoned agricultural land, an object-based classification approach was applied. Random forest (RF) and support vector machines (SVM) algorithms permitted classifying Landsat and RapidEye data from 2009 to 2014. Overlaying these maps with information about irrigated land parcels, installed during the Soviet period, allowed indicating abandoned fields. Fusing the results of the two approaches, RF and SVM, resulted in classification accuracies of up to 97%. This was statistically significantly higher than with RF or SVM alone. Through the analysis of the land use trajectories, abandoned agricultural fields and a clear indication of abandoned land were identified on almost 50% of all fields in Kyzyl-Orda with an accuracy of approximately 80%. The outputs of this study may provide valuable information for planners, policy- and decision-makers to support better-informed decision-making like reducing possible environmental impacts of land abandonment, or identifying areas for sustainable intensification or re-cultivation.