When does economic development promote mitigation and why?

Is economic development compatible with mitigation? On the one hand, development should promote effective climate policy by enhancing states’ capacities for mitigation. On the other hand, economic growth creates more demand for production, thereby inhibiting emissions reduction. These arguments are often reconciled in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) thesis. According to this approach, development initially increases emissions in poor economies, but begins to lower emissions after a country has attained a certain level of development.

The aim of this article is to determine empirically whether the EKC hypothesis seems plausible in light of emissions trends over the birth and implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Drawing on data from the World Bank World Development Indicators and World Resources Institute Climate Data Explorer, it conducts a large-N investigation of the emissions behaviour of 120 countries from 1990 to 2012. While several quantitative studies have found that economic factors influence emissions activity, this article goes beyond existing research by employing a more sophisticated – multilevel – research design to determine whether economic development: (a) continues to be a significant driver once country-level clustering is accounted for and (b) has different effects on different countries. The results of this article indicate that, even after we account for country-level clustering and hold constant the other main putative drivers of emissions activity, economic development tends to inhibit emissions reduction. They also provide strong evidence that emissions trends resemble the EKC, with development significantly constraining emissions reduction in the South and promoting it in the North.

POLICY RELEVANCE

This article contributes to the understanding of the (changing) role of economic development in shaping emissions activity. It demonstrates the need for a contextualized, country-specific approach for evaluating the effectiveness of economic development in promoting emissions reduction and uncovers new evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis.     

南亚高压区Rossby波能量向上穿越对流层顶传播的特征与机制

夏季平流层盛行强东风,Rossby波能量难以从对流层向上传播至平流层,而冬季平流层盛行西风,Rossby波能量容易上传,因此以往对Rossby波能量向平流层传播的研究多考虑冬季的情况.而事实上,因为夏季高原上空南亚高压反气旋环流,并非只有强东风存在,所以Rossby波能量也可能在南亚高压区向上传播,从而影响平流层的温度、风场及大气成分等.因此,本文利用ERA-interim逐日再分析资料,分析了1979—2015年夏季南亚高压区Rossby波能量穿越对流层顶传播的特征与机制.结果表明:Rossby波能量可以从南亚高压西北部的窗口区上传至平流层,最高可到达平流层顶,而在南亚高压的其他部分,Rossby波能量均不能穿越对流层顶上传或穿越对流层顶后无法继续上传.南亚高压西北区Rossby波能量可以穿越对流层顶传播的原因是盛行西风,且西风急流出现的频率很小,同时涡动热量通量异常引起的垂直分量的第一项对其上传有很大贡献.南亚高压东北区也盛行西风,然而Rossby波能量不能向上穿越对流层顶的原因是强西风出现频率较高,且温度脊与高度脊位相相近,不利于上传.南亚高压南部均盛行东风,在平流层中下层均为稳定层结,因此Rossby波能量很难上传.南亚高压西南区在对流层位于青藏高原环流的伊朗高原下沉区附近,层结稳定,并且温度脊超前于高度脊,所以Rossby波能量很难上传.而南亚高压东南区在对流层位于南海-西太平洋热带幅合带,层结不稳定,存在Rossby波能量较弱的上传,达到对流层顶后无法继续上传,该区域温度脊落后于高度脊的温压场配置也为Rossby波能量在对流层内的传播提供了条件.     

Assessing urbanisation effects on rainfall-runoff using a remote sensing supported modelling strategy

This paper aims at developing a methodology for assessing urban dynamics in urban catchments and the related impact on hydrology. Using a multi-temporal remote sensing supported hydrological modelling approach an improved simulation of runoff for urban areas is targeted. A time-series of five medium resolution urban masks and corresponding sub-pixel sealed surface proportions maps was generated from Landsat and SPOT imagery. The consistency of the urban mask and sealed surface proportion time-series was imposed through an urban change trajectory analysis. The physically based rainfall-runoff model WetSpa was successfully adapted for integration of remote sensing derived information of detailed urban land use and sealed surface characteristics.A first scenario compares the original land-use class based approach for hydrological parameterisation with a remote sensing sub-pixel based approach. A second scenario assesses the impact of urban growth on hydrology. Study area is the Tolka River basin in Dublin, Ireland.The grid-based approach of WetSpa enables an optimal use of the spatially distributed properties of remote sensing derived input.Though change trajectory analysis remains little used in urban studies it is shown to be of utmost importance in case of time series analysis. The analysis enabled to assign a rational trajectory to 99% of all pixels. The study showed that consistent remote sensing derived land-use maps are preferred over alternative sources (such as CORINE) to avoid over-estimation errors, interpretation inconsistencies and assure enough spatial detail for urban studies. Scenario 1 reveals that both the class and remote sensing sub-pixel based approaches are able to simulate discharges at the catchment outlet in an equally satisfactory way, but the sub-pixel approach yields considerably higher peak discharges. The result confirms the importance of detailed information on the sealed surface proportion for hydrological simulations in urbanised catchments. In addition a major advantage with respect to hydrological parameterisation using remote sensing is the fact that it is site- and period-specific. Regarding the assessment of the impact of urbanisation (scenario 2) the hydrological simulations revealed that the steady urban growth in the Tolka basin between 1988 and 2006 had a considerable impact on peak discharges. Additionally, the hydrological response is quicker as a result of urbanisation. Spatially distributed surface runoff maps identify the zones with high runoff production.It is evident that this type of information is important for urban water management and decision makers. The results of the remote sensing supported modelling approach do not only indicate increased volumes due to urbanisation, but also identifies the locations where the most relevant impacts took place.     

Propagation of water waves over permeable rippled beds

Unsteady two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and Navier-Stokes type model equations for porous flow were solved numerically to simulate the propagation of water waves over a permeable rippled bed. A boundary-fitted coordinate system was adopted to make the computational meshes consistent with the rippled bed. The accuracy of the numerical scheme was confirmed by comparing the numerical results concerning the spatial distribution of wave amplitudes over impermeable and permeable rippled beds with the analytical solutions. For periodic incident waves, the flow field over the wavy wall is discussed in terms of the steady Eulerian streaming velocity. The trajectories of the fluid particles that are initially located close to the ripples were also determined. One of the main results herein is that under the action of periodic water waves, fluid particles on an impermeable rippled bed initially moved back and forth around the ripple crest, with increasing vertical distance from the rippled wall. After one or two wave periods, they are then lifted towards the next ripple crest. All of the marked particles on a permeable rippled bed were shifted onshore with a much larger displacement than those on an impermeable bed. Finally, the flow fields and the particle motions close to impermeable and permeable beds induced by a solitary wave are elucidated.     

Multi-level temporal autoregressive modelling of daily activity satisfaction using GPS-integrated activity diary data

In this research, we match web-based activity diary data with daily mobility information recorded by GPS trackers for a sample of 709 residents in a 7-day survey in Beijing in 2012 to investigate activity satisfaction. Given the complications arising from the irregular time intervals of GPS-integrated diary data and the associated complex dependency structure, a direct application of standard (spatial) panel data econometric approaches is inappropriate. This study develops a multi-level temporal autoregressive modelling approach to analyse such data, which conceptualises time as continuous and examines sequential correlations via a time or space-time weights matrix. Moreover, we manage to simultaneously model individual heterogeneity through the inclusion of individual random effects, which can be treated flexibly either as independent or dependent. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed for model implementation. Positive sequential correlations and individual heterogeneity effects are both found to be statistically significant. Geographical contextual characteristics of sites where activities take place are significantly associated with daily activity satisfaction, controlling for a range of situational characteristics and individual socio-demographic attributes. Apart from the conceivable urban planning and development implications of our study, we demonstrate a novel statistical methodology for analysing semantic GPS trajectory data in general.     

On the lengths of crossing exursions: the case of a discrete normal process with underlying exponential autocovariance

An expression is derived for the probability distribution of excursion lengths above a fixed level, for the specific case of a discrete random process sampled from an underlying, continuous normal process with exponential autocovariance function. The expression can be integrated numerically for small excursion lengths, and used with time-series simulations to qualitatively reveal the form of the distribution. Such computations indicate that excursions lengths are well approximated by a Weibull distribution to at least the 0.95 probability value. The fit improves with increasing fixed level, and with decreasing time constant of the process. In addition, an expression is given for the expected number of crossings of a fixed level, analogous to well known formulae used in estimating expected values for the cases of a continuous process and a discrete stepped process.     

Modeling spatiotemporal topological relationships between moving object trajectories along road networks based on region connection calculus

Considering the attempts to model spatiotemporal topological relationships between moving object trajectories, the conceptual and computational framework for moving objects along a road network has not received much attention. This paper aims to draw an improved model based on Region Connection Calculus (RCC) theory to represent the spatiotemporal topological relationships between moving object trajectories along road networks. This paper first uses a dimension reduction method based on a linear-reference transformation to model the moving object trajectories segments, and then defines new time–connection and space–connection relations between two trajectory segments. On this basis, the paper proposes an extension to the RCC-based spatiotemporal binary relationship set so that the combined semantics of the spatiotemporal predicates can be described completely. A case study was carried out using Floating Car Data in Guangzhou city. The computational results show that in a real application, the occurrence frequencies of the RCC-based binary relationships are distributed nonuniformly and the semantics of some binary relationships with the highest occurrence are coarse. Therefore, the partition of the spatiotemporal connection relations and the finer aspects of the spatiotemporal relationship model may require further research work.     

Numerical simulation of larval shrimp dispersion in the Northern Region of the Gulf of California

The trajectories of shrimp larvae in the northern part of the Gulf of California were studied from a Lagrangian point of view using a three-dimensional numerical model. The advection of particles was carried out over fortnightly periods starting at spring and neap tides. The northernmost region of the gulf has important shrimp fisheries and nursery areas have been located off the coast of Baja California at San Felipe (SF) and off the Sonora coast at Santa Clara (SC). Though the reproduction zone is believed to be south of these nursery areas, there is much that remains unknown about the zone and the routes used by shrimps to reach these areas. Passive and active simulations of shrimp larvae drift were carried out in order to study the possible areas of shrimp spawning and their migratory routes. The active migration schemes were based on assumptions that the larvae can be advected only: (1) during the day, (2) at night or (3) when the currents flow in the northward direction toward the nursery areas. It was found that the larvae in Santa Clara and San Felipe came from different production zones. No differences were found between the spring and neap tide scenarios except for the diurnal migration experiments. The distance traveled by shrimp larvae was always less than 40–50 km, except in the cases when the larvae selected the appropriate direction to the nursery areas when the larvae travel 140 km to SC and 95 km to SF.     

Assessment of water exchange between a discharge region and the open sea – A comparison of different methodological concepts

Two different methods of estimating the water exchange through the Baltic coastal region of Laxemar have been used, consisting of particle trajectories and passive tracers. Water is traced from and to a small discharge region near the coast. The discharge material in this region is treated as zero-dimensional particles or tracers with neutral buoyancy. The real discharge material could be a leakage of radio-nuclides through the sea floor from an underground repository of nuclear waste.Water exchange rates between the discharge region and the model domain are estimated using both forward and backward trajectories as well as passive tracers. The Lagrangian trajectories can account for the time evolution of the water exchange while the tracers give one average age per model grid box. Water exchange times such as residence time, age and transient times have been calculated with trajectories but only the average age (AvA) for tracers. The trajectory calculations provide a more detailed time evolution than the tracers.On the other hand the tracers are integrated “on-line” simultaneously in the sea circulation model with the same time step while the Lagrangian trajectories are integrated “off-line” from the stored model velocities with its inherent temporal resolution, presently 1 h. The sub-grid turbulence is parameterised as the Laplacian diffusion for the passive tracers and with an extra stochastic velocity for trajectories. The importance of the parameterised sub-grid turbulence for the trajectories is estimated to give an extra diffusion of the same order as the Laplacian diffusion by comparing the Lagrangian dispersions with and without parameterisation. The results of the different methods are similar but depend on the chosen diffusivity coefficient with a slightly higher correlation between trajectories and tracers when integrated with a lower diffusivity coefficient.     

曲率积分约束的GPS浮动车地图匹配方法

提出了以轨迹曲线的曲率积分值作为地图匹配特征的匹配方法,利用轨迹曲率积分值约束前后相邻轨迹点的关联匹配,采用不同类型行驶路径以及不同采样间隔,实施了浮动车地图匹配试验,结果表明,以匹配正确率和稳定性评判,本文提出的曲率积分约束的浮动车地图匹配方法优于现有的未采用曲率特征匹配的经典浮动车地图匹配方法。