The 27-Day and 22-Year Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

We study the evolution of the longitudinal asymmetry in solar activity through the wave packet technique applied to the period domain of 25 – 31 days (centered at the 27-day solar rotation period) for the sunspot number and geomagnetic aa index. We observe the occurrence of alternating smaller and larger amplitudes of the 11-year cycle, resulting in a 22-year periodicity in the 27-day signal. The evolution of the 22-year cycle shows a change of regime around the year 1912 when the 22-year period disappears from the sunspot number series and appears in the aa index. Other changes, such as a change in the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity, took place at the same time. Splitting the 27-day frequency domain of aa index shows an 11-year cycle for higher frequencies and a pure22-year cycle for lower frequencies, which we attribute to higher latitude coronal holes. This evidence is particularly clear after 1940, which is another benchmark in the evolution of the aa index. We discuss briefly the mechanisms that could account for the observed features of the 22-year cycle evolution.     

沙尘天气产生的气候背景及物理机制

沙尘天气发生频率、强度与大风、干旱过程、异常大气环流的气候背景以及人为因素有关。它的物理过程是地表上升气流把疏松地表尘粒带入空中,并且在一定层结条件下形成和加强的。利用1958~2000年内蒙古中西部70个测站的沙尘暴观测资料,对沙尘暴的地理分布、时间分布特征进行了统计分析。结果表明:内蒙古中西部有三个强沙尘暴多发中心,沙尘暴年代际变化和年际变化较明显,且沙尘暴集中出现在春季的3~5月份。     

分子体系介质中气溶胶粒子的耦合碰并

根据碰并率通量随粒子半径变化极小的物理事实,利用半径空间极值点处碰并率函数的连续光滑的性质,把在低Péclet数条件下得到的碰并率的三阶渐近展式和纯重力作用下的碰并率一阶解,推广到中Péclet数重力对流与Brown运动都不能看成小量的耦合碰并条件中,同时得到高Péclet数条件下碰并率的三阶数值解,最后首次得到高Knudsen数条件下分子体系任意Péclet数条件下的碰并率.     

宇宙分维构造及其数学基础

探讨了宇宙分维构造的形式,给出了分维微积分及分形测度的数学基础,包括分维导数及分维微积分的表述形式、分维微分方程的规整空间积分解、分形测度的分维微积分定义及自相似分形的测度计算方程．作为诠释,探讨了原子核内中子与质子的趋势关系方程,以及其周期解和原子序数极限值。     

Critical metals distribution in Tethyan karst bauxite: The cretaceous Italian ores

Bauxite is a residual rock, consisting mainly of a mixture of aluminium hydroxides, whose industrial significance is primarily due to its profitably exploitable alumina contents. In the last decades, bauxite, mainly karst bauxite, has been also considered as possible resource of a great number of economically interesting elements including some critical metals such as rare earth elements, Sc, Co, Ni, and Nb. In this study, we present results of univariate and multivariate (R-mode factor analysis) statistics performed on a large data set including chemical composition of the principal Cretaceous karst bauxites from central and southern Italy with the twofold aim to evaluate the inter-elemental relationship among major oxides and critical metals, and describe factors affecting their distribution. Univariate statistics reveal that some critical metals Co, Ni, and LREE, have a significant number of outliers. The Co-Ni relationship associated to the outliers dataset suggests that Co is likely hosted in Ni-rich phases whereas Ce accumulation in authigenic minerals, carbonate-fluoride and phosphate, is at the origin of LREE outliers. Multivariate R-mode statistics, applied to the outliers-devoid database, instead demonstrate that in absence of specific mineralization events, the distribution of most critical metals is controlled by Al-, Fe-, and Ti-oxi-hydroxides and, to a lesser extent, by detrital phases. Among the critical metals, Cr and Y are the exceptions. Their geochemical behaviour seems to be influenced primarily by their own chemical features that are responsible for the mobility of Cr during bauxitization and for the decoupling of Y from the REEs.     

西安世园会客流影响及预测的气象计量经济分析

以2011年西安世界园艺博览会(简称世园会)的入园客流数量和逐日气象资料为基础,以最高温度、平均风速和平均相对湿度为定量解释变量,以降水、节假日、每一天和月份为虚拟解释变量,引入随机误差项的AR(2)结构,通过逐步优化的建模思想,构建了2011年西安世园会入园客流的气象计量经济模型。以该模型为核心,以网络技术和数据库技术为基础,构建世园会入园客流数量预测的气象服务业务化系统。2011年8月底至10月22日,气象部门和世园会管理层同时开展了基于网络的业务化应用,运用逐日温度和降水等天气预报信息,结合入园票务政策变化、优惠措施出台、指定日特别活动等信息,联合开展对逐日、未来一段时间和整个运营期的可能入园客流数量的定量预测,为世园执委会部署和控制客流数量、确保世园会安全运营提供重要参考依据。结论表明,气象计量经济学模型能很好地解释气象因素、节假日、每一天以及不同月份变化对入园客流的影响,准确模拟入园客流数量的逐日与逐月变化特征,能较好地预测未来两周的入园客流人数。在8月提前两个月准确预测出西安世园会可能入园客流总人数逾1600万人,与实际人数约1573万很接近。     

我国四季极端雨日数时空变化及其与海表温度异常的关系

利用1960—2004年我国586个气象站的逐日降水观测资料,对每个季节和每个站点,以雨日降水量升序排列的第90个百分位值定义极端日降水阈值,分析揭示了我国四季极端雨日数的时空变化特征、与海表温度异常的关系以及相联系的大气环流异常型。结果表明,我国长江流域极端雨日数在冬季和夏季呈显著增加趋势,华北地区极端雨日数在冬季显著增加、而在夏季显著减少,华南地区极端雨日数在春季显著增加,东北地区极端雨日数在冬季和春季显著增加,而西北地区极端雨日数在四季均显著增加。各季极端雨日数在线性趋势变化之上表现年际和年代际变化特征,并且其典型异常型明显不同,春、秋季表现为长江以南与以北地区反位相的"偶极型"变化,夏季表现为长江流域与华南、华北地区反位相的"三极型"变化,冬季表现为全国大部分地区同位相的"单极型"变化。我国季节极端雨日数与印度洋-太平洋海表温度异常的关系主要表现为与ENSO的关系,而ENSO影响我国极端降水异常是通过相应的大气环流异常型来实现的。     

泸溪县雷暴天气的气候特征分析

对泸溪县1959年～2011年53年的逐日气象资料进行统计,分析了泸溪县雷暴气候变化特征。分析表明:泸溪县属于多雷区,平均雷暴日数为47.5d;年雷暴日数线性变化呈明显下降趋势,气候倾向率为-4.6d/10a;全年4个季度均有雷暴活动发生,发生的频率以夏、春两季最高;一年中雷暴活跃期出现在3～9月,活跃期平均雷暴日数占全年的85.1%;雷暴初日和终日都呈缓慢提前的趋势。     

Seeding nature, ceding culture: Redefining the boundaries of the marine commons through spatial management and GIS

The oceans are not only being transformed through privatization as management moves towards market mechanisms, the oceans are also being “zoned”, with zoning increasingly proposed as the ideal conduit for weighting different uses of the ocean. This is concomitant with a move towards ecosystem-based management that also partakes in a policy environment imbued with the commodification of nature, in which environmental services are ranked and valued according to neoliberal percepts. Crucial to these projects are the utilization of GIS technologies. This paper considers these zones of preservation and sites of conflict through an ethnographic case study of the scallop fisheries of New England, examining conflicts between harvesters, different projects to map the fishery, and ongoing efforts to reseed scallop beds. The paper explores how participants themselves articulate the changing practices of fishing and farming, redefining boundaries of nature and culture. While reseeding projects, for example, arguably participate in the market logic of neoliberalism, at the same time they may resist and redefine the terms, as communities see themselves sowing the seeds of their own sustainability and changing the terms of what counts, literally, as nature.     

Modelling Near-Surface Low Winds over Land under Stable Conditions: Sensitivity Tests,Flux-Gradient Relationships,and Stability Parameters

Low or weak wind-speed conditions, roughly defined as the periods when the mean wind speed at 10 m above the ground is 2 ms⁻¹ or less, are of considerable practical interest. However, they are not readily amenable to treatment within prognostic meteorological models and, consequently, difficult to predict, especially when the ambient stability is strong. In this paper, we apply an E − ε prognostic meteorological model to simulate near-surface meteorology and, focusing on low wind speeds, compare the predictions with measurements from two independent datasets. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the possible reasons for the relatively inferior model performance for low winds when the atmosphere is stably stratified. A comprehensive data analysis is carried out to study low wind stable conditions, concentrating on the validity of various forms of flux–gradient relationships for momentum and heat within the framework of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, which models employ for calculating surface fluxes. The observed behaviour of various stability parameters, such as the Richardson number, is investigated. The results point to inadequacies of the current flux–gradient relationships, especially regarding momentum, under strongly stable conditions as being a dominant reason for the poor low wind predictions. The modelling issues identified are not just restricted to the present model, but are general in nature. The use of an alternative stability function for momentum under strongly stable conditions is explored. It results in improved model performance for low winds; however, further research is needed to better understand strongly stable flows in the lower atmosphere and to develop methods that can translate that understanding to operational meteorological modelling.