GRAPES区域集合预报两种侧边界扰动方法对比试验

中国气象局数值预报中心自2014年建立了区域集合预报业务系统,其使用的侧边界扰动由全球集合预报系统动力降尺度得到。为深入了解侧边界扰动对区域集合预报的影响,基于15 km水平分辨率的区域集合预报模式,使用动力降尺度方法和尺度化滞后平均法(scaled lagged average forecasting,SLAF)设计构造了两种侧边界扰动方案,并开展了2015年7月共6天的集合预报试验,利用集合均方根误差、集合离散度、连续分级概率评分、离群值、Brier Score及相对作用特征曲线面积等概率预报检验方法进行了多方面检验,分析了两种侧边界扰动方案对区域集合预报质量的影响。结果表明:动力降尺度侧边界扰动方案(DOWN)的扰动总能量在各垂直层次均大于SLAF方案,使得边界上前者的离散度大于后者,集合扰动增长更为合理;对于等压面要素和地面要素,DOWN方案的离散度、Outlier、CRPS等评分优于SLAF方案,反映了DOWN方案构造的侧边界扰动更加合理;在降水概率预报技巧方面,SLAF方案在评分上具有一定优势,但评分的提高没有通过显著性水平检验,因此认为两种方案对降水预报的改进基本相当。     

高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力分析

利用2018年7—8月GRAPES_3 km、东北短临(WRFRUC)高分辨率模式综合雷达回波预报数据和辽宁省SWAN雷达组合反射率(MCR)实况,基于邻域法FSS评分指数,分析模式在台风北上和副热带高压边缘暴雨过程中的雷达回波预报能力。结果表明:两家模式在不同降水过程中对小阈值雷达回波有较好的预报技巧,随着回波量级增大,模式预报FSS逐渐减小,雷达回波55 dBz时,FSS甚至为0。当邻域半径是3时,35 dBz以下的回波预报中GRAPES模式在台风北上暴雨中的预报技巧低于副热带高压边缘,35 dBz则相反。WRFRUC模式始终表现为台风北上暴雨中预报较好。当邻域半径9时,WRFRUC模式在台风暴雨中的FSS评分高于GRAPES模式,GRAPES模式在副热带高压暴雨中的FSS评分始终高于WRFRUC模式。GRAPES和WRFRUC模式的最大FSS评分技巧均出现在邻域半径是11时,分别为0.239和0.195。GRAPES模式中FSS评分在12 h逐小时预报中前3个时次较强,WRFRUC模式则表现为中间时次强,两头弱。     

中国农业气象模式(CAMM1.0)构建与应用

为发展适宜中国区域农业种植特点的农业气象模式,基于国外作物生长模拟方法,通过模式机理过程改进或重构以及应用方式革新,建立了中国农业气象模式（Chinese AgroMeteorological Model version 1.0,CAMM1.0）。CAMM1.0利用平均温度和土壤水分改进了作物发育进程模式,利用土壤水分改进了作物叶片光合作用、干物质分配和叶面积扩展过程模式,通过蒸发比法扩展了作物蒸散过程模式;自主建立了基于发育进程的冬小麦株高、基于遥感信息的作物灌溉、遥感数据同化、作物长势与灾害评价等模式。基于互联网技术构造了实时运转平台,主要功能包括作物生长过程实时常规模拟与用户个性化定制模拟。CAMM1.0的部分子模式采用多种方法构造,便于多模式集成。CAMM1.0对作物发育进程、光合过程、株高的模拟效果较好,但对土壤水分变化过程的拟合略差,模拟产量略偏低。CAMM1.0评价淮河流域夏玉米年际干旱减弱而涝渍增加的趋势与实际基本相符。     

福建省晋江市城市热岛强度时空变化特征分析

利用传统的气象站法, 结合空间统计学方法(普通克里金插值法), 对福建省晋江市2010—2014年40个自动气象站逐小时温度资料加以计算处理, 分析了晋江市年、季、昼夜热岛强度时空变化规律。(1)晋江市年、季、昼夜热岛强度都呈带状分布, 等值线呈西南-东北走向, 年、季、昼夜变化趋势显著, 北部热岛强度高于南部。五年间热岛强度持续增强, 但增幅不大, 增速放缓。(2)城市化水平的提高, 会导致热岛强度高值出现季节提前, 故旅游区秋冬季热岛强度高于春夏季, 中心城区和产业经济区夏秋季热岛强度高于冬春季。(3)晋江市热岛效应昼夜空间分布格局差异性大, 夜间热岛强度显著高于白天, 最低值出现在14—16时, 中心城区和产业经济区最低值出现时间较旅游区略推迟, 三个功能区的最高值均出现在凌晨。      

Investigation of highly efficient algorithms for solving linear equations in the discontinuous deformation analysis method

Large‐scale engineering computing using the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) method is time‐consuming, which hinders the application of the DDA method. The simulation result of a typical numerical example indicates that the linear equation solver is a key factor that affects the efficiency of the DDA method. In this paper, highly efficient algorithms for solving linear equations are investigated, and two modifications of the DDA programme are presented. The first modification is a linear equation solver with high efficiency. The block Jacobi (BJ) iterative method and the block conjugate gradient with Jacobi pre‐processing (Jacobi‐PCG) iterative method are introduced, and the key operations are detailed, including the matrix‐vector product and the diagonal matrix inversion. Another modification consists of a parallel linear equation solver, which is separately constructed based on the multi‐thread and CPU‐GPU heterogeneous platforms with OpenMP and CUDA, respectively. The simulation results from several numerical examples using the modified DDA programme demonstrate that the Jacobi‐PCG is a better iterative method for large‐scale engineering computing and that adoptive parallel strategies can greatly enhance computational efficiency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical analysis of the effect of natural microcracks on the supercritical CO2 fracturing crack network of shale rock based on bonded particle models

The problem of predicting the geometric structure of induced fractures is highly complex and significant in the fracturing stimulation of rock reservoirs. In the traditional continuous fracturing models, the mechanical properties of reservoir rock are input as macroscopic quantities. These models neglect the microcracks and discontinuous characteristics of rock, which are important factors influencing the geometric structure of the induced fractures. In this paper, we simulate supercritical CO₂ fracturing based on the bonded particle model to investigate the effect of original natural microcracks on the induced‐fracture network distribution. The microcracks are simulated explicitly as broken bonds that form and coalesce into macroscopic fractures in the supercritical CO₂ fracturing process. A calculation method for the distribution uniformity index (DUI) is proposed. The influence of the total number and DUI of initial microcracks on the mechanical properties of the rock sample is studied. The DUI of the induced fractures of supercritical CO₂ fracturing and hydraulic fracturing for different DUIs of initial microcracks are compared, holding other conditions constant. The sensitivity of the DUI of the induced fractures to that of initial natural microcracks under different horizontal stress ratios is also probed. The numerical results indicate that the distribution of induced fractures of supercritical CO₂ fracturing is more uniform than that of common hydraulic fracturing when the horizontal stress ratio is small.     

An improved SPH method for saturated soils and its application to investigate the mechanisms of embankment failure: Case of hydrostatic pore‐water pressure

The method of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) has recently been applied to computational geomechanics and has been shown to be a powerful alternative to the standard numerical method, that is, the finite element method, for handling large deformation and post‐failure of geomaterials. However, very few studies apply the SPH method to model saturated or submerged soil problems. Our recent studies of this matter revealed that significant errors may be made if the gradient of the pore‐water pressure is handled using the standard SPH formulation. To overcome this problem and to enhance the SPH applications to computational geomechanics, this article proposes a general SPH formulation, which can be applied straightforwardly to dry and saturated soils. For simplicity, the current work assumes hydrostatic pore‐water pressure. It is shown that the proposed formulation can remove the numerical error mentioned earlier. Moreover, this formulation automatically satisfies the dynamic boundary conditions at a submerged ground surface, thereby saving computational cost. Discussions on the applications of the standard and new SPH formulations are also given through some numerical tests. Furthermore, techniques to obtain the correct SPH solution are also proposed and discussed throughout. As an application of the proposed method, the effect of the dilatancy angle on the failure mechanism of a two‐sided embankment subjected to a high groundwater table is presented and compared with that of other solutions. Finally, the proposed formulation can be considered a basic formulation for further developments of SPH for saturated soils. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stress‐dependent hardening and failure surfaces of dry sand

During several triaxial compression experiments on plastic hardening, softening, and failure properties of dense sand specimens, it was found on various stress paths that the size of the failure surface was not constant. Instead, it changed depending on the current state of hydrostatic pressure. This finding is in contrast to the standard opinion consisting of the fact that the failure surface remains constant, once it has been reached during an experiment or in situ. In general, the behaviour of cohesionless granular‐material‐like sand is somehow characterised in between fluid and solid, where the solid behaviour results from the angle of internal friction and the confining pressure. Although the friction angle is an intrinsic material property, the confining pressure varies with the boundary conditions, thus defining different solid properties like plastic hardening, softening, and also failure. Based on our findings, it was the goal of the present contribution to introduce an improved setting for the plastic strain hardening and softening behaviour including the newly found yield properties at the limit state. For the identification of the material parameters, a complete triaxial experimental analysis of the tested sand is given. The overall elasto‐plasticity concept is validated by numerical computations of several laboratory foundation‐ and slope‐failure experiments. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with the standard concept of a constant failure surface, where the corresponding yield surfaces are understood as contours of equivalent plastic work or plastic strain. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.