参数调整对气象预测的B-P网络模型性能的影响

为了探索ＢＰ网络的参数调整特性,进行了参数α、β的选取对ＢＰ算法的收敛速度和模型的稳定性的影响研究。通过ＢＰ网络用于气象预测建模的参数调整个例分析表明：参数α、β的取值对ＢＰ模型的稳定性无显著影响,但参数值的调整尤其是β值的调整对建模的收敛速度有明显的影响。     

Latitudinal and Scan-dependent Biases of Microwave Humidity Sounder Measurements and Their Dependences on Cloud Ice Water Path

The relationship between differences in microwave humidity sounder(MHS)–channel biases which represent measured brightness temperatures and model-simulated brightness temperatures, and cloud ice water path(IWP) as well as the influence of the cloud liquid water path(LWP) on the relationship is examined. Seven years(2011–17) of NOAA-18 MHS-derived measured brightness temperatures and IWP/LWP data generated by the NOAA Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System are used. The Community Radiative Transfer Model, version2.2.4, is used to simulate model-simulated brightness temperatures using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data as background fields. Scan-angle deviations of the MHS window channel biases range from-1.7 K to1.0 K. The relationships between channels 2, 4, and 5 biases and scan angle are symmetrical about the nadir. The latitudedependent deviations of MHS window channel biases are positive and range from 0–7 K. For MHS non-window channels,the latitudinal deviations between measured brightness temperatures and model-simulated brightness temperatures are larger when the detection height is higher. No systematic warm or cold deviations are found in the global spatial distribution of difference between measured brightness temperatures and model-simulated brightness temperatures over oceans after removing scan-angle and latitudinal deviations. The corrected biases of five different MHS channels decrease differently with respect to the increase in IWP. This decrease is stronger when LWP values are higher.     

大流域3维水情信息系统的设计与实现研究

阐述了天津海河流域3维可视化应用系统的建设背景,系统设计及使用的关键技术。海河流域3维可视化应用系统（HH-VRGIS）是海河流域水利信息化的重要组成部分,它充分运用了现代GIS技术,先进的3维虚拟仿真可视化技术,大型数据库管理技术以及通信技术对水文专题信息的空间分析模型与查询技术进行了全面的整合,对海河流域的信息化管理,水资源的科学化调度和汛情及时准确的模拟和仿真做了基础研究。实践表明,该系统设计先进,界面友好,功能完善,运行稳定,具有较好的应用前景。     

从科普插图看托勒密的地心说

古希腊著名天文学家托勒密一生著作很多,他和他的学说在天文学发展中无疑占有重要地位,其中最为著名、影响甚广的,似乎是被诬蔑为"臭名昭著"的"地心说"。不过,在中国的天文学科普书籍中,作者注意到有两种不同版本的"地心说"插图,两者反映的科学含义有很大差别。试图从这两种不同版本的插图来探讨"地心说"为什么能够统治那么多年。     

SONG-China Project: A Global Automated Observation Networktwo

Driven by the technological advancements and scientific objectives, the data acquisition in observational astronomy has been changed greatly in recent years. Fully automated or even autonomous ground-based network of telescopes has now become a tendency for time-domain observational projects. The Stellar Observations Network Group (SONG) is an international collaboration with the participation and contribution of the Chinese astronomy community. The scientific goal of SONG is time-domain astrophysics, such as the astroseismology and the research of variable stars in open clusters. The SONG project aims to build a global network of one-meter telescopes equipped with high-precision and high-resolution spectrographs, and two-channel lucky-imaging cameras. It is the Chinese initiative to install a 50 cm binocular photometry telescope at each SONG node to share the network platform and infrastructure. This work is focused on the design and implementation of SONG/50BiN in technology and methodology, for the ground-based network composed of multiple sites and a variety of instruments.     

Coupling winds to ocean surface currents over the global ocean

A Wind stress–Current Coupled System (WCCS) consisting of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and an improved wind stress algorithm based on Donelan et al. [Donelan, W.M., Drennan, Katsaros, K.B., 1997. The air–sea momentum flux in mixed wind sea and swell conditions. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 27, 2087–2099] is developed by using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The WCCS is applied to the global ocean to study the interactions between the wind stress and the ocean surface currents. In this study, the ocean surface current velocity is taken into consideration in the wind stress calculation and air–sea heat flux calculation. The wind stress that contains the effect of ocean surface current velocity will be used to force the HYCOM. The results indicate that the ocean surface velocity exerts an important influence on the wind stress, which, in turn, significantly affects the global ocean surface currents, air–sea heat fluxes, and the thickness of ocean surface boundary layer. Comparison with the TOGA TAO buoy data, the sea surface temperature from the wind–current coupled simulation showed noticeable improvement over the stand-alone HYCOM simulation.     

Discretization approach in integrated Hydrologic Model for surface and groundwater interaction

The commonly used discretization approaches for distributed hydrological models can be broadly categorized into four types,based on the nature of the discrete components:Regular Mesh,Triangular Irregular Networks(TINs),Representative Elementary Watershed(REWs) and Hydrologic Response Units(HRUs).In this paper,a new discretization approach for landforms that have similar hydrologic properties is developed and discussed here for the Integrated Hydrologic Model(IHM),a combining simulation of surface and groundwater processes,accounting for the interaction between the systems.The approach used in the IHM is to disaggregate basin parameters into discrete landforms that have similar hydrologic properties.These landforms may be impervious areas,related areas,areas with high or low clay or organic fractions,areas with significantly different depths-to-water-table,and areas with different types of land cover or different land uses.Incorporating discrete landforms within basins allows significant distributed parameter analysis,but requires an efficient computational structure.The IHM integration represents a new approach interpreting fluxes across the model interface and storages near the interface for transfer to the appropriate model component,accounting for the disparate discretization while rigidly maintaining mass conservation.The discretization approaches employed in IHM will provide some ideas and insights which are helpful to those researchers who have been working on the integrated models for surface-groundwater interaction.     

中国大陆科学钻探主孔超高压榴辉岩中绿辉石结构水研究

本文利用傅立叶（Fourier）变换红外光谱技术对CCSD主孔100～3100米深度范围榴辉岩中的绿辉石结构水含量进行了原位分析。结果表明,所有绿辉石都舍有一定的以OH形式存在的结构水,其含量范围为45～784ppm,平均为235ppm。不同榴辉岩绿辉石之间的结构水含量差别较大,而且呈现出明显的空间分布不均一性。相关性分析显示,绿辉石的结构水含量与全岩的Mgo、TFeO、Al2O3,含量成正相关,与NaO成反相关,与绿辉石的NaO、TFeO含量成负相关,与榴辉岩的峰期变质条件无关;与其它类型榴辉岩相比,多硅白云母榴辉岩中绿辉石的结构水含量较高,平均为339ppm。由此推测,超高压榴辉岩绿辉石中所残留的结构水含量很可能与其峰期结构水含量、矿物化学成分和岩石矿物组成有关。     

基于贝叶斯模型的器测、古气候重建与气候模拟数据的融合试验

气象部门馆藏的西部最早的器测气象资料始于20世纪30年代,不能满足建立20世纪以来中国气候变化序列的需求,而古气候重建或气候模拟资料则可以延伸到器测时代以前。为了探讨长序列多源气候资料序列融合方法,采用贝叶斯方法对中国北疆地区8条树轮气温重建资料、器测资料与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟资料进行了融合试验。首先利用器测资料对气温代用资料进行校验与网格重建,并以此作为贝叶斯模型的先验分布,然后,用泰勒图选出了该区域气候模拟效果最佳的几个模式;最后将网格重建和气候模拟序列用贝叶斯模型进行了融合试验。结果表明,贝叶斯融合模型能有效提取各种数据来源的有用信息进行融合,融合结果的长期变化（线性）趋势更接近器测气候序列,并在一定程度上提高了序列的精度,减小了结果的不确定性;并且,融合结果能够纠正先验分布及气候模拟数据的明显偏差,为长年代气候序列重建提供了一个可行的思路。      

历史解译知识引导下组合遥感图谱特征的变化检测方法

高空间分辨率遥感影像为地表变化监测提供了大量细节信息,这使得基于高分辨率影像的变化检测技术成为当前遥感领域的研究热点之一。本文提出了一种历史解译知识引导下组合遥感图谱特征的变化检测方法。首先,通过分割前后时相的组合影像构建空间位置一致的对象,并在提取对象光谱和纹理特征后,引入前期土地覆盖专题图指导2类图谱特征相似度的DS证据融合;然后,利用其历史存档图斑所属区域的优势地类标签指示不同特征相似度的证据差异融合;最后,基于GMM（Gaussian Mixture Mode）模型的二值化方法提取最终的变化区域。实验结果表明,该方法能充分利用历史解译知识指导不同时相高分辨率影像对象特征相似度组合,一定程度上提高了变化检测正确率。