区域一体化背景下关中空间整合研究

区域空间整合是新形势下加强区域合作与协调、增强区域竞争力的有效途径。随着西部大开发的深入,有效整合关中地区对陕西以及西部地区经济发展至关重要。该文从经济、文化及基础设施方面阐述关中地区目前所具备的空间整合条件,并分析其动力机制,包括内部动力、外部动力及耦合动力;基于区域空间结构理论及系统学理论,提出关中空间整合的3种模式,即点—点整合模式、轴线整合模式及面域整合模式,并结合现实状况提出加强关中空间整合的主要措施。     

Mantle Branch Structure in the South-Central Segment of the Da Hinggan Mts.,Inner Mongolia and Its Ore-controlling Role

Abstract: Mantle branch structure is the third tectonic unit of multiple evolution of a mantle branch. It is not only the main mechanism of intercontinental orogeny, but also an important ore-forming and ore-control structure. Studies on geotectonic evolution, regional geological characteristics and ore-forming and ore-control structures have shown that since the Mesozoic the Da Hinggan Mts. region has entered a typical intercontinental orogenic stage, and it is closely related to mantle branch activities. The south-central segment of the Da Hinggan Mts. is a typical mantle branch structure and possesses obvious magmatic-metamorphic complexes in the core, detachment slip beds in the periphery and overlapped fault depression basins. Moreover, all of these are the principal factors leading to ore formation and ore control in the region. This paper also further explores the mechanism of mineralization in the south-central segment of the Da Hinggan, summaries the rules of mineralization, puts forward the models of mineralization and points out future ore-exploring orientation.     

Kantowski-Sachs String Cosmological Model with Bulk Viscosity In General Relativity

String cosmological models with bulk viscosity are investigated in Kantowski-Sachs space-time. To obtain a determinate solution, it is assumed that the coefficient of bulk viscosity is a power function of the scalar of expansion ζ = kθ^m and the scalar of expansion is proportional to the shear scalar θ ∝ σ, which leads to a relation between metric potentials R = AS ⁿ . The physical and geometrical aspects of the model are also discussed. It is shown that the bulk viscosity has significant influence on the evolution of the universe. There is a ‘big bang’ start in the model when m ≤ 1 but there is no ‘big bang’ start when m > 1.     

Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation

A calibration method to solve the groundwater inverse problem under steady- and transient-state conditions is presented. The method compares kriged and numerical head field gradients to modify hydraulic conductivity without the use of non-linear optimization techniques. The process is repeated iteratively until a close match with piezometric data is reached. The approach includes a damping factor to avoid divergence and oscillation of the solution in areas of low hydraulic gradient and a weighting factor to account for temporal head variation in transient simulations. The efficiency of the method in terms of computing time and calibration results is demonstrated with a synthetic field. It is shown that the proposed method provides parameter fields that reproduce both hydraulic conductivity and piezometric data in few forward model solutions. Stochastic numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the method to the damping function and to the head field estimation errors.     

宁镇地区地质灾害预报模型——以镇江润州区为例

宁镇地区是长江中下游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。镇江润州区虽然仅是宁镇地区的一个局部区域,但其气候和地质环境特征具有典型意义,所提出的地质灾害气象预警预报模型同样适用于整个宁镇地区,对长江中下游地区亦有借鉴作用。气候环境、降雨尤其是连续降雨或强降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素。润州区地质灾害主要与梅雨期总降雨量有关,其次与台汛期台风带来的降雨量有关,而与台汛期总降雨量无关。地质灾害预测预警方程应针对不同时期采用不同的预警模型：非梅雨期的预警方程采用预报日降雨量结合前5日降水之和的综合模型,梅雨期的预警方程采用梅雨期降雨总量模型。提出地质灾害气象预报预警等级应根据《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》将等级统一划分为4级。该模型可作为完善我国现有地质灾害气象预警预报系统的参考。     

A coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model for 1-D and 3-D applications in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

Primary production in the Bering and Chukchi Seas is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of sea ice. Here pelagic and sea ice algal ecosystems coexist and interact with each other. Ecosystem modeling of sea ice associated phytoplankton blooms has been understudied compared to open water ecosystem model applications. This study introduces a general coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model with equations and parameters for 1-D and 3-D applications that is based on 1-D coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model development in the landfast ice in the Chukchi Sea and marginal ice zone of Bering Sea. The biological model includes both pelagic and sea ice algal habitats with 10 compartments： three phytoplankton （pelagic diatom, flagellates and ice algae： D, F, and Ai） , three zooplankton （copepods, large zooplankton, and microzooplankton ： ZS, ZL, ZP） , three nutrients （ nitrate ＋ nitrite, ammonium, silicon ： NO3 , NH4, Si） and detritus （Det）. The coupling of the biological models with physical ocean models is straightforward with just the addition of the advection and diffusion terms to the ecosystem model. The coupling with a multi-category sea ice model requires the same calculation of the sea ice ecosystem model in each ice thickness category and the redistribution between categories caused by both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing as in the physical model. Phytoplankton and ice algal self-shading effect is the sole feedback from the ecosystem model to the physical model.     

大都市区城市扩展模型- 以北京城市扩展模拟为例

在分析大都市区城市扩展特征的基础上,从宏观外部约束性因素和局部城市单元自身扩展能力变化共同作用影响城市发展演变的角度,构建了一个模拟和预测大都市区城市发展演变过程的城市扩展模型 (City Expanding Model in Metropolitan Area; CEM)。首先对北京1975~1997年的城市发展过程进行模拟重建,然后在此基础上从城镇用地数量最优和位置最佳相结合的角度对北京2005~2015年的城市发展格局进行了预测。结果表明,在对各种影响因素进行严格标准化并利用自适应Monte-Carlo方法多次模拟确定最佳影响权重的基础上,该模型可以在一定程度上反映城市发展,尤其是大都市区城市发展演变的特征和规律。     

输电线路抢修塔拉线基础的优化设计

通过分析以往地锚结构设计方法的不足,研究输电线路抢修塔拉线基础的优化设计方法。运用现行杆塔基础设计理论建立数学优化模型,应用MATLAB优化工具箱,编制地锚结构优化程序,设计出输电线路抢修塔最安全,经济,合理的基础型式。此优化方法可以在目前输电线路拉线基础中推广使用,并发挥其显著的经济效应和社会效益。     

灰色GM(1,1)残差修正模型在滑坡预测中的对比应用

在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,经过不同方式的残差修正,分别建立了一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型和二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型。根据滑坡的监测资料,对变形曲线为光滑型滑坡(如黄龙西村滑坡、某滑坡)和阶跃型滑坡(如新滩滑坡、洒勒山新滑坡)分别建立了传统GM(1,1)模型和一阶、二阶残差修正模型,并对不同滑坡各模型的预测精度进行了分析比较。结果表明,残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度明显高于传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。对变形曲线为光滑型的滑坡,二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度一般高于一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度;对变形曲线为阶跃型的滑坡,一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。