对流参数气候特征在短期预报中的应用

利用对流参数气候特征,可以判断对流天气出现的可能性,进而提高预报时效。以2004年和2005年6－8月石家庄17个地面站观测资料和邢台站高空探测资料为例,计算了对流有效位能（CAPE）、沙氏指数（SI）、K指数（KI）和对流性稳定度指数（IC）等对流参数的气候平均值（气候特征）,求取雷暴日和强雷暴日各对流参数的平均值。结果表明：不同的月份与不同强度对流天气的气候特征有明显差别。计算了2006年7月逐日4个时次的对流参数,并分析这些参数和石家庄天气的关系表明：CAPE和SI能够较好的反映出强对流的一些特征;02时和14时加密探空资料弥补了08时和20时时间间隔较长的缺陷,对提高对流天气的短期和短时预报水平,有着十分重要的意义。     

2005年"5.31"湖南大暴雨中尺度模拟和发生机制

利用NCEP 1°×1°的6 h再分析资料和MM5模式15 km水平分辨率模拟的逐时资料,对2005年初夏湖南大暴雨的中尺度系统及其触发、维持机制进行了诊断分析研究。结果表明:高低空急流最佳配置,动力耦合关系建立为暴雨发生提供了有利的环境条件;中尺度系统在渝南、黔西生成后移入湖南停滞发展,加强了湖南上空动力不稳定条件,促进对流发展;偏南暖湿气流整层突然增强对暴雨的对流系统爆发性发展起十分重要的作用,它在中高层凝结释放潜热加热高层大气,对上升气流起到正反馈作用;高层大气强“抽吸”效应和前期降水产生地表潜热和感热的强迫作用亦是对流爆发性发展的重要因子。湖南复杂地形在暴雨启动机制中起重要作用。但敏感性试验表明,地形抬升不是这次暴雨唯一必需的触发条件,削平南方山地不仅能增强水汽输送,低层偏南气流增强还能加强地面中尺度系统的辐合作用,辐合抬升是触发机制之一。降雨过程发生发展主要受天气系统控制,地形效应可明显改变降雨落区和强度,迎(背)风坡度的增加(减小)通常使降雨加强,反之使降雨减弱。     

南半球冷空气入侵与热带气旋的形成

文中采用NCAR/PSU研制的非静力中尺度模式MM 5 ,研究了南半球冷空气入侵在热带气旋形成中的作用。初始场为纬向平均场 ,不含任何扰动 ,但为热带气旋的发生提供了基本条件 ;通过改变设在赤道的南边界条件 ,设计系列数值试验反映南半球不同强度冷空气的入侵。数值试验结果表明 :南半球冷空气侵袭后 ,在菲律宾以东洋面上形成热带气旋 ;没有冷空气入侵时 ,只有扰动产生 ,没有热带气旋形成。在对流不稳定的背景场中 ,即使没有冷空气入侵 ,低层小尺度辐合引起强上升运动 ,产生的非绝热加热 ,在热带洋面上也能形成扰动。但是非绝热加热使得稳定度增加 ,没有低层强辐合的支持 ,对流不能持续 ,扰动不能发展成为热带气旋。南半球冷空气的入侵 ,一方面气温降低 ,使得中低层层结稳定度降低 ;另一方面 ,冷空气形成向北的气压梯度 ,在低纬度产生南风 ,导致低层强辐合。稳定度因子和低层辐合的共同作用 ,驱动深厚的垂直环流 ,产生十分显著的非绝热加热 ,形成了暖心的热带气旋。上述研究结果一定程度上肯定了存有疑义的冷空气学说     

Can sand dunes be used to study historic storm events?

Knowing the long‐term frequency of high magnitude storm events that cause coastal inundation is critical for present coastal management, especially in the context of rising sea levels and potentially increasing frequency and severity of storm events. Coastal sand dunes may provide a sedimentary archive of past storm events from which long‐term frequencies of large storms can be reconstructed. This study uses novel portable optically stimulated luminescence (POSL) profiles from coastal dunes to reconstruct the sedimentary archive of storm and surge activity for Norfolk, UK. Application of POSL profiling with supporting luminescence ages and particle size analysis to coastal dunes provides not only information of dunefield evolution but also on past coastal storms. In this study, seven storm events, two major, were identified from the dune archive spanning the last 140 years. These appear to correspond to historical reports of major storm surges. Dunes appear to be only recording (at least at the sampling resolution used here) the highest storm levels that were associated with significant flooding. As such the approach seems to hold promise to obtain a better understanding of the frequency of large storms by extending the dune archive records further back to times when documentation of storm surges was sparse. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

A multipoint study of a substorm occurring on 7 December, 1992, and its theoretical implications

On 7 December 1992, a moderate substorm was observed by a variety of satellites and ground-based instruments. Ionospheric flows were monitored near dusk by the Goose Bay HF radar and near midnight by the EISCAT radar. The observed flows are compared here with magnetometer observations by the IMAGE array in Scandinavia and the two Greenland chains, the auroral distribution observed by Freja and the substorm cycle observations by the SABRE radar, the SAMNET magnetometer array and LANL geosynchronous satellites. Data from Galileo Earth-encounter II are used to estimate the IMF B_z component. The data presented show that the substorm onset electrojet at midnight was confined to closed field lines equatorward of the pre-existing convection reversal boundaries observed in the dusk and midnight regions. No evidence of substantial closure of open flux was detected following this substorm onset. Indeed the convection reversal boundary on the duskside continued to expand equatorward after onset due to the continued presence of strong southward IMF, such that growth and expansion phase features were simultaneously present. Clear indications of closure of open flux were not observed until a subsequent substorm intensification 25 min after the initial onset. After this time, the substorm auroral bulge in the nightside hours propagated well poleward of the pre-existing convection reversal boundary, and strong flow perturbations were observed by the Goose Bay radar, indicative of flows driven by reconnection in the tail.     

Nonlocal Turbulent Mixing Based on Convective Adjustment Concepts (Ntac)

A nonlocal turbulent mixing parameterization is introduced in this study and denoted by the acronym NTAC, which stands for Nonlocal parameterization of Turbulent mixing using convective Adjustment Concepts. NTAC uses the average value of quantities in the turbulent domain in much the same way that local convective adjustment schemes use the average potential temperature. Averages are determined in the region with non-convective turbulence using information from the two end layers (denoted by TLA, Two Layer Average), while all layers contribute to the average in regions with convective turbulence (denoted by CLA, Convective Layer Average). The NTAC parameterization estimates the mixing percentage and uses this percentage as a mixing coefficient. These percentages are determined from a simplified turbulent kinetic energy equation. The scheme is versatile, conservative, and when programmed efficiently the proposed parameterization is a computationally acceptable nonlocal procedure that can be used in many existing numerical weather prediction forecast models.Numerical weather forecast model simulations using the NTAC parameterization and traditional K-theory are compared against radiosonde data. The accuracy of the proposed NTAC parameterization is found to be competitive with K theory. The greatest improvement of the NTAC over K-theory occurs during the daytime and early nighttime hours when (dry) convective activity is high. Also, areal cloud coverage is increased by the NTAC parameterization. Our findings show that the greatest nonlocal vertical mixing occurs between the layer nearest the earth's surface and the remaining layers making up the planetary boundary layer.     

Conserved variable analysis of the marine boundary layer and air-sea exchange processes using BOBMEX-Pilot data sets

The present study is based on the observed features of the MBL (Marine Boundary Layer) during the Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) — Pilot phase. Conserved Variable Analysis (CVA) of the conserved variables such as potential temperature, virtual potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature, saturation equivalent potential temperature and specific humidity were carried out at every point of upper air observation obtained on board ORV Sagar Kanya. The values are estimated up to a maximum of 4 km to cover the boundary layer. The Marine Boundary Layer Height is estimated from the conserved thermodynamic profiles. During the disturbed period when the convective activity is observed, the deeper boundary layers show double mixing line structures. An attempt is also made to study the oceanic heat budget using empirical models. The estimated short-wave radiation flux compared well with the observations.     

Interhemispheric observations of nightside ionospheric electric fields in response to IMF B z and B y changes and substorm pseudobreakup

HF radar data during equinoctial, small IMF B_y conditions have enabled the ionospheric convection during the substorm growth phase and substorm pseudobreakup to be studied in both hemispheres. This has revealed both conjugate and non-conjugate convection behaviour during the substorm growth phase before and after the pseudobreakup onset. The nightside convection pattern is found to respond promptly to the southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) which impacts on the dusk flank of the magnetosphere due to an inclined phase front in the IMF in the case study presented. The subsequent interhemispheric observations of nightside convection are controlled by the IMF B_y polarity. The time scale for the response to changes in the IMF B_y component is found to be a little longer than for B_z, and the full impact of the IMF B_y is not apparent in the nightside convection until after substorm pseudobreakup has occurred. The pseudobreakup itself is found to result in a transitory suppression in the ionospheric electric field in both hemispheres. This flow suppression is very similar to that observed in HF radar observations of full substorm onset, with the exception of a lack of subsequent poleward expansion.     

Geomagnetic Storm Effects on the Topside Ionosphere and Plasmasphere: A Compact Tutorial and New Results

The coupled ionosphere–thermosphere–plasmasphere system is very complex. The study of its interrelationships during geomagnetically disturbed conditions is an especially challenging task.Significant progress has been achieved during the last few years in developing comprehensive theoretical models to describe its global behaviour.Moreover, more simple, specialized numerical modelling of some specialaspects of storm behaviour and/or regional models have contributedto the progress in this field.This paper summarizes recent developments in upper ionosphereand plasmasphere storm studies and modelling.From an observational point of view the upper ionosphere/plasmasphereregion is well reflected in radio beacon measurements providing the totalelectron content (TEC). The development of space-based radio navigation systems such as GPS offersnew opportunities to derive TEC on both regional and global scale.Combining TEC with ionosonde data enables the variability of the shape of the electron density distribution during storms to be studied.We present some examples of co-ordinated investigation,made during the CEDAR storm study intervals.     

Combined ESR and EISCAT observations of the dayside polar cap and auroral oval during the May 15, 1997 storm

The high-latitude ionospheric response to a major magnetic storm on May 15, 1997 is studied and different responses in the polar cap and the auroral oval are highlighted. Depletion of the F₂ region electron density occurred in both the polar cap and the auroral zone, but due to different physical processes. The increased recombination rate of O⁺ ions caused by a strong electric field played a crucial role in the auroral zone. The transport effect, however, especially the strong upward ion flow was also of great importance in the dayside polar cap. During the main phase and the beginning of the recovery phase soft particle precipitation in the polar cap showed a clear relation to the dynamic pressure of the solar wind, with a maximum cross-correlation coefficient of 0.63 at a time lag of 5 min.