广东台风特大暴雨预报

使用台风年鉴，天气图，天星云图等气象资料，对１９６０－１９９１年影响广东的３９例特大暴雨台风进行了对比分析，台风特大暴雨主要是由其云系中的中尺度强降水系统造成，归纳出形成发展的概仿模式和相应环境流场特征，建立预报思路与方法。１９９４年作１５次预报试验，其准确率达７３％。     

Observations of the Daytime Boundary Layer in Deep Alpine Valleys

Mixing depth structure and its evolution have been diagnosed from radar wind profiler data in the Chamonix and the Maurienne valleys (France) during summer 2003. The behaviour of refractive index structure parameter C _n ² peaks coupled with the vertical velocity variance σ _w ² was used to estimate the height of the mixed layer. Tethersonde vertical profiles were carried out to investigate the lower layers of the atmosphere in the range of approximately 400–500 m above ground level. The tethersonde device was especially useful to study the reversal of the valley wind system during the morning transition period. Specific features such as wind reversal and the convective mixed layer up to approximately the altitude of the surrounding mountains were documented. The wind reversal was observed to be much more sudden in the Maurienne valley than in the Chamonix valley     

Probability of correct selection from lognormal and convective diffusion models based on the likelihood ratio

The objective of the paper is to show that the use of a discrimination procedure for selecting a flood frequency model without the knowledge of its performance for the considered underlying distributions may lead to erroneous conclusions. The problem considered is one of choosing between lognormal (LN) and convective diffusion (CD) distributions for a given random sample of flood observations. The probability density functions of these distributions are similarly shaped in the range of the main probability mass and the discrepancies grow with the increase in the value of the coefficient of variation (C _V ). This problem was addressed using the likelihood ratio (LR) procedure. Simulation experiments were performed to determine the probability of correct selection (PCS) for the LR method. Pseudo-random samples were generated for several combinations of sample sizes and the coefficient of variation values from each of the two distributions. Surprisingly, the PCS of the LN model was twice smaller than that of the CD model, rarely exceeding 50%. The results obtained from simulation were analyzed and compared both with those obtained using real data and with the results obtained from another selection procedure known as the QK method. The results from the QK are just the opposite to that of the LR procedure.     

The process of sedimentation on the surface of a salt marsh

An unditched salt marsh-creek drainage basin (Holland Glade Marsh, Lewes, Delaware) has a sedimentation rate of 0·5 cm year^?1. During normal, storm-free conditions, the creek carries negligible amounts of sand and coarse silt. Of the material in the waters flooding the marsh surface, over 80% disappears from the floodwaters within 12 m of the creek. About one-half of the lost material is theoretically too fine to settle, even if flow were not turbulent; however, sediment found on Spartina stems can account for the loss.The quantity of suspended sediment that does reach the back marsh during these normal tides is inadequate to maintain the marsh surface against local sea level rise. This suspended sediment is also much finer than the deposited sediments. Additionally, remote sections of low marsh, sections flooded by only the highest spring tides, have 15–30 cm of highly inorganic marsh muds.This evidence indicates that normal tidal flooding does not produce sedimentation in Holland Glade. Study of the effects of two severe storms, of a frequency of once per year, suggests that such storms can deposit sufficient sediment to maintain the marsh.The actual deposition of fine-grained sediments (fine silt and clay) appears to result primarily from biological trapping rather than from settling. In addition, this study proposes that the total sedimentation on mature marshes results from a balance between tidal and storm sedimentation. Storms will control sediment supply and movement on micro- and meso-tidal marshes, and will have less influence on macro-tidal marshes.     

Spatial representativeness of single tower measurements and the imbalance problem with eddy-covariance fluxes: results of a large-eddy simulation study

A large-eddy simulation (LES) study is presented that investigates the spatial variability of temporal eddy covariance fluxes and the systematic underestimation of representative fluxes linked to them. It extends a prior numerical study by performing high resolution simulations that allow for virtual measurements down to 20 m in a convective boundary layer, so that conditions for small tower measurement sites can be analysed. It accounts for different convective regimes as the wind speed and the near-surface heat flux are varied. Moreover, it is the first LES imbalance study that extends to the stable boundary layer. It reveals shortcomings of single site measurements and the necessity of using horizontally-distributed observation networks. The imbalances in the convective case are attributed to a locally non-vanishing mean vertical advection due to turbulent organised structures (TOS). The strength of the TOS and thus the imbalance magnitude depends on height, the horizontal mean wind and the convection type. Contrary to the results of a prior study, TOS cannot generally be responsible for large energy imbalances: at low observation heights (corresponding to small towers and near-surface energy balance stations) the TOS related imbalances are generally about one order of magnitude smaller than those in field experiments. However, TOS may cause large imbalances at large towers not only in the case of cellular convection and low wind speeds, as found in the previous study, but also in the case of roll convection at large wind speeds. In the stably stratified boundary layer for all observation heights neither TOS nor significant imbalances are observed. Attempting to reduce imbalances in convective situations by applying the conventional linear detrending method increases the systematic flux underestimation. Thus, a new filter method is proposed.     

垂直分辨率对广州"5·7"特大暴雨数值模拟影响的研究

精细化的垂直分辨率能够更好地反映大气动热力环境和中尺度系统生消演变过程,不同层次高度垂直分辨率的加密对暖区对流系统触发及组织发展机制的影响有待深入研究。本文针对2017年5月6日（UTC）广州局地突发的特大暴雨受复杂地形影响、其对流中尺度系统局地触发、后向传播及组织化的特点,运用WRFV3.9.1,采用GFS资料较好地模拟和再现了此次大暴雨过程,并进行了不同高度垂直分辨率的敏感性试验,以探究垂直分辨率对此次暖区暴雨触发及组织化过程的影响。结果表明:低层垂直分辨率加密试验能够模拟出更强的偏南回流、偏东风和较强的低层风场辐合以及较强的温度扰动,进而引起更强的对流触发;中层垂直分辨率加密更有利于大范围的强干冷空气侵入对流系统,其造成的潜热和不稳定能量的释放,是对流系统发展的重要原因;高空垂直分辨率的加密试验则描述出了对流系统上部与高空急流出流相关的高空辐散中心、对流系统周围的高空强辐散中心以及相邻对流单体的垂直环流,细致再现了对流单体合并为对流系统的组织化过程。     

低层对流嵌入到高层云系的模拟研究

嵌有对流的层状云系兼有两种云的特征并且降水效率较高, 具有重要的研究意义。本文结合观测资料, 利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)模拟了2010年7月1日发生在东北地区的一次大范围强降水天气过程, 并对其中两个较典型的嵌入对流个例进行了详细分析。分析发现这两个嵌入对流都是由低层对流嵌入到高层云系所形成, 其中由对流云和位于其正上方的层云所形成的嵌入对流发展更加旺盛并给地面带来更强降水。以这两个个例为基础, 通过其与模拟区域内的普通对流云和层云相比较发现:相对于孤立对流云, 嵌入对流内的对流云生命期更长、低层水汽辐合更强、云内液水含量更大, 不稳定能量更多集中在低层;而在液水含量相当的两个嵌入对流中固态水含量的不同对降水强度影响较大;另一方面, 在嵌入对流发展的过程中嵌入对流内层云的垂直尺度扩大、含水量增加、降水强度增强, 从降水机制来看其云内固态和液态水含量都随嵌入对流发展逐渐增大, 而单纯层云内的上述变化均不明显。     

山东夏季两次切变线暴雨过程对比分析

利用常规观测资料、卫星云图、多普勒天气雷达和NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对2012年7月30日和2013年7月9日山东出现的两次区域性暴雨进行了对比分析,结果表明：两次850 hPa切变线造成的暴雨,线状MCS(Mesoscale Convective System)组织化程度高,地面辐合线触发了暴雨的发生。不同的是:①“7〖DK〗·30”暴雨500 hPa影响系统为阶梯槽,副高位于朝鲜半岛以东;“7〖DK〗·9”暴雨为典型的东高西低形势,副高控制华东沿海;②“7〖DK〗·30”暴雨受一股较强的东南气流作用,将东海及西太平洋水汽输送到暴雨区,925 hPa水汽通量散度和最强上升速度较“7〖DK〗·9”暴雨分别大-10 g〖DK〗·hPa-1〖DK〗·cm-2〖DK〗·s-1和-0.2 Pa〖DK〗·s-1,“7〖DK〗·9”暴雨由低空西南急流将南海的水汽输送到暴雨区,925 hPa水汽通量和比湿较“7〖DK〗·30”暴雨分别大2~4 g〖DK〗·cm-1〖DK〗·hPa-1〖DK〗·s-1和2 g〖DK〗·kg-1;③两次暴雨过程MCS发生发展过程、形成方式和成熟期组织结构存在显著差异,“7〖DK〗·30”暴雨是对流单体独立发展逐渐合并成β中尺度,最终形成α中尺度对流系统,“7〖DK〗·9”暴雨为多个对流单体合并为β中尺度系统。通过分析得出,切变线暴雨触发机制应着眼于地面辐合线的形成和加强以及冷空气侵入引起的锋生。     

Impact of strong geomagnetic storms on total ozone at southern higher middle latitudes

The effects of space weather on the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system have been broadly studied within the program CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) and project COST724. Here we show that strong geomagnetic storms do not affect total ozone at higher middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere contrary to the Northern Hemisphere, where an effect is observed under specific conditions.     

星载SAR遥感图像反演海洋大气边界层高度

本研究将边界层相似理论与对流理论应用到具有海洋大气边界层(Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer, MABL)对流特征的星载合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar, SAR)遥感图像,探讨了星载SAR遥感图像描述海气应力作用下水平扰动尺度变化的潜在可能性.针对具有三维对流涡旋Cell和二维水平滚轴涡旋Roll特征的星载SAR遥感图像,反演了中国海海域MABL高度,并与同步实验获取的MABL高度结果进行对比.结果表明,利用具有对流特征的星载SAR遥感图像反演MABL高度是可行的,展示了以高分辨率、大面积观测为特点的星载SAR遥感图像探测MABL的广阔前景.