Hurricanes and tropical storms: A necessary evil to ensure water supply?

Several parts of the globe including Southeast North America, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, Australia, and China are often hit by hurricanes and tropical storms (HTSs), which can deliver a large amount of rainfall within a period of a few days. Although HTSs are mostly studied as disaster agents, considering that they occur during the period when water supply systems are generally depleted, it is important to ascertain their potential contributions toward sustaining water supply. Using the Lake Michie–Little River reservoir system that supplies water to the city of Durham (North Carolina) as a representative test case, we implemented an integrated watershed and reservoir management model, supported by publicly available observations, to evaluate the extent to which HTSs impact water storages. Results indicate that HTSs can have a significant impact on reservoir water storage, with their effects being felt for more than a year for some storms. The impact on reservoir water storage is identified to be primarily controlled by 3 factors, namely, streamflow response size from HTSs, storage in the reservoir right before the event, and streamflow succeeding the event response to HTS (henceforth referred as postevent streamflow). Although the impact of streamflow response size on water storage is generally proportional to its magnitude, initial water storage in the reservoir and postevent streamflow have a nonmonotonic influence on water storage. As all the 3 identified controls are a function of antecedent hydrologic conditions and meteorological forcings, these 2 factors indirectly influence the impact of HTS on water storage in a reservoir. The identification of controlling factors and assessment of their influence on reservoir response will further facilitate implementation of more accurate estimation and prediction frameworks for within‐year reservoir operations.     

The Vertical Transport of Air Pollutants by Convective Clouds Part Ⅱ：Transport of Soluble Gases and Sensitivity Tests

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The effects of tropical storm Dennis on coastal phytoplankton

The effects of tropical storm Dennis were documented in the coastal waters of South Carolina during August 1981. Phytoplankton photosynthesis vs. irradiance curves showed initial depression of the parameter a followed by three- to five-fold increase of both a and the asymptotic maximum rate of photosynthesis P_m^B. Productivity rates were depressed in most samples immediately after the storm. Surface samples at the inshore stations were around 50 mg C m^?3 h^?1 at saturating light intensities, while the offshore station rates were around 10 mg C m^?3 h^?1. After a 10-day lag these rates had increased to about 200 mg C m^?3 h^?1 inshore and 75 mg C m^?3 h^?1 offshore. These changes are thought to be primarily caused by changes in species composition. Some of the dominant diatom species changed and dinoflagellate species were introduced. No significant changes in nutrient concentrations were observed. Transient depressions of water temperature, salinity and light intensity may have contributed to the observed changes.     

Low frequency 1/f-like fluctuations of the AE-index as a possible manifestation of self-organized criticality in the magnetosphere

Low frequency stochastic variations of the geomagnetic AE-index characterized by 1/f^b-like power spectrum (where f is a frequency) are studied. Based on the analysis of experimental data we show that the B_z-component of IMF, velocity of solar wind plasma, and the coupling function of Akasofu are insufficient factors to explain these behaviors of the AE-index together with the 1/f^b fluctuations of geomagnetic intensity. The effect of self-organized criticality (SOC) is proposed as an internal mechanism to generate 1/f^b fluctuations in the magnetosphere. It is suggested that localized spatially current instabilities, developing in the magnetospheric tail at the initial substorm phase can be considered as SOC avalanches or dynamic clusters, superposition of which leads to the 1/f^b fluctuations of macroscopic characteristics in the system. Using the sandpile model of SOC, we undertake numerical modeling of space-localized and global disturbances of magnetospheric current layer. Qualitative conformity between the disturbed dynamics of self-organized critical state of the model and the main phases of real magnetospheric substorm development is demonstrated. It is also shown that power spectrum of sandpile model fluctuations controlled by real solar wind parameters reproduces all distinctive spectral features of the AE fluctuations.     

Impact of Turbulence Closures on Diurnal Temperature evolution for Clear Sky Situations Over Belgium

The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of turbulence closure on the simulation of surface air temperature at screen height (1.5 m) over Belgium. The mesoscale model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), developed at the Université catholique de Louvain, is used to examine one-dimensional situations. A new second-order closure (level 2.5) is implemented containing prognostic equations for all three velocity variances, and diagnostic or prognostic formulations for the dissipation. This closure is compared with first and one-and-a-half order closures. Idealized nearly-neutral and convective cases underline the differences between first and second-order closures, and between diagnostic and prognostic equations for the dissipation. The one-and-a-half and second-order closures give satisfying results, but the first-order closure produces generally less appropriate vertical diffusion. Observed clear sky and weak horizontal advection situations have shown the sensitivity of 24 h temperature evolution to the choice of the turbulent closure.     

Inconsistent palaeomagnetic recording of the Blake event in Chinese loess related to sedimentary environment

Three loess sequences located east of the Liupan mountain region, China, were studied to obtain records of the Blake polarity event. Palaeomagnetic records from the appropriate stratigraphic interval of these three sequences, however, record the Blake event poorly in one case and not at all in the other two cases. It is important to understand why these loess sequences miss the Blake event, whereas others record it quite well. We conclude that regional variations in the sedimentary environment over the Chinese loess plateau are responsible for the inconsistent recording of the Blake event. The palaeomagnetic records suggest a threefold subdivision of the Chinese loess plateau into (1) the central and southern portions of the part of the plateau that lies east of the Liupan Mountains, where the primary record of the Blake event has been severely smoothed or wiped out by pedogenic processes during palaeosol (S1) formation; (2) the northern margin of the loess plateau to the east of the Liupan Mountains, where frequent, severe dust storms have resulted in discontinuous records with a high probability of missing the Blake event; and (3) the region west of the Liupan Mountains, where loess sequences are deposited rapidly and nearly continuously with only minor pedogenesis, and are thus capable of recording short events like the Blake.     

On the analytical solution for two-dimensional convective plume and analytical modeling of the entrainment zone thickness

Analytical solution for two-dimensional thermal plume updraft velocity is obtained under the assumption of a uniform temperature excess inside the plume. In this way, the thermal plume motion is modeled in both mixed layer and entrainment zone. Also, a semi-analytical solution is obtained using an empirical model for the plume temperature excess in the mixed layer. In addition, an analytical model for entrainment zone thickness is obtained by computing the overshoot distance of the modeled plumes, and a semi-analytical model by using the empirical model for plume temperature. By using a nonlinear profile for the lapse rate in the surface layer based on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, our model predicts that the characteristics of the surface layer plays an important role in the structure of the entrainment zone. Finally, our solutions for plume velocity allow us to consider the effect of the lateral entrainment on the plume excess temperature and velocity in the convective boundary layer. It is shown that the lateral entrainment has an important role on the plume dynamics and the solutions in the zero entrainment limit offer large overestimated values for the plume velocity, which also result in overestimated values of the entrainment zone thickness.     

Absolute instabilities in the spatially developing Kuroshio Extension

Satellite observations have long revealed to us a spatially growing Kuroshio Extension (KEx), but its underlying dynamics is yet to be studied. With a normal mode model of absolute/convective instability, it is found that the mean zonal jet is unstable at all the sections in the downstream region (east of 154 °E). In each of the resulting complex dispersion relation diagrams there lies a single saddle point associated with a positive temporal growth rate; that is to say, the mean jet is absolutely unstable, implying that KEx favors self-sustained oscillations. By calculation the absolute instability wave has a period increasing from about 27 days to 72 days, and a slightly decreasing wavelength from 360 km to 250 km, as longitude increases from 154 °E to 174 °E, agreeing with those inferred from the wavelet power spectra and Hovmöller diagram of the satellite observations. As KEx travels downstream, the associated eigen-structure of the perturbation velocity changes from a surface trapped mode to a mode with components maximized in the vertical interior. This study shows that at least a portion of the KEx intraseasonal variability is of intrinsic origin, and may be predictable with the absolute/convective instability theory.     

State of China's climate in 2021

This report is a summary of China's climate, as well as major weather and climate events, during 2021. In 2021, the mean temperature in China was 10.5°C, which was 1.0°C above normal (1981–2010 average) and broke the highest record since 1951. The annual rainfall in China was 672.1 mm, which was 6.7% above normal. Also, the annual rainfall in northern China was 40.2% above normal, which ranked second highest since 1961. The rainstorm intensity in the rainy season was strong and featured significant extremes, and disasters caused by rainstorms and flooding were more serious than the average in the past decade. In particular, the extremely strong rainstorm in Henan during July and autumn caused flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River with severe consequences. Heatwaves occurred more frequently than normal, and their durations in southern China were longer than normal in summer and autumn. Phased drought was obvious, and caused serious impacts in South China. The number of generated and landfalling typhoons was lower than normal; however, Typhoon In-fa broke the record for the longest overland duration, held since 1949, and affected a wide area. Severe convective weather and extreme windy weather occurred frequently, causing serious impacts. The number of cold waves was more than normal, which caused wide-ranging extremely low temperatures in many places. Sandstorms appeared earlier than normal in 2021, and the number of strong dust storm processes was more than normal.摘要2021年, 中国气候暖湿特征明显, 全国平均气温10.5℃, 较常年偏高1.0℃, 创下了1951年以来最高纪录; 全国平均降水量672.1毫米, 比常年偏多6.7%, 其中北方地区平均降水量较常年偏多40.2%, 为1961年以来第二多. 汛期暴雨过程强度大, 极端性显著, 河南特大暴雨灾害影响重, 黄河中下游流域秋汛明显; 高温过程多, 夏秋南方高温持续时间长; 区域性, 阶段性气象干旱明显, 华南干旱影响较重; 台风生成和登陆均偏少, “烟花”陆地滞留时间长, 影响范围广; 强对流天气强发, 极端大风频发, 局地致灾重; 寒潮过程多, 强度大, 极端低温频现; 沙尘天气出现早, 强沙尘暴过程多.     

Stratigraphical evidence of Late Holocene barrier breaching and extreme storms in lagoonal sediments of Ria Formosa, Algarve, Portugal

Stratigraphical, sedimentological and paleoecological studies undertaken in lagoonal sediments of the Ria Formosa barrier lagoon indicate that a number of present-day aligned beaches outcropping within the marsh and detached from mainland (marsh detached beaches, MDB) represent the remnants of former ephemeral flood deltas, which established following barrier breaching induced by extreme storms from circa 1270 BC onwards. Dating of these beaches suggests that they resulted from multiple events of flooding separated both in time and space. Repeated emplacement of tidal deltas following overwash of the same location of the barrier is represented in the stratigraphical record by buried and partly overlapping marsh beaches. It is suggested that further refinement of the data presented in this paper and the extension of the stratigraphic survey to the entire lagoonal space will substantiate the usefulness of the stratigraphic record as a proxy to hindcast a time series of extreme storminess extending far beyond the instrumental and historical records.