对流有效位能计算的新方案

对流有效位能是强对流天气分析预报的重要参数。本文通过理论推导,提出了载水气块和非载水气块两种情况下,对流有效位能的两个新的计算方案,分别记作CAPEw和CAPE。该方案与以往的方案有很大的不同和根本的区别,更加合理和符合实际。编制了相应的计算程序,可以计算两种情况下的对流抑制能量CINw、CIN,对流有效位能CAPEw、CAPE,抬升凝结高度LCL(二者相同),自由对流高度LFCw、LFC,对流凝结高度CCL(二者相同)以及平衡高度ELw、EL;可以预报对流温度Tg(二者相同);可以分析地面和高空温度、湿度、等压面高度发生变化时,CINw、CIN和CAPEw、CAPE等的数值变化情况,便于业务应用和理论研究。还讨论了影响对流有效位能局地变化的因子和预报思路。     

Evaluation of TMPA satellite-based research and real-time rainfall estimates during six tropical-related heavy rainfall events over Louisiana, USA

This study focuses on the evaluation of 3-hourly 0.25° × 0.25° satellite-based rainfall estimates produced by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The evaluation is performed during six heavy rainfall events that were generated by tropical storms passing over Louisiana, United States. Two surface-based rainfall datasets from gauge and radar observations are used as a ground reference for evaluating the real-time (RT) version of the TMPA product and the post-real-time bias adjusted research version. The evaluation analysis is performed at the native temporal and spatial scales of the TMPA products, 3-hourly and 0.25° × 0.25°. Several graphical and statistical techniques are applied to characterize the deviation of the TMPA estimates from the reference datasets. Both versions of the TMPA products track reasonably well the temporal evolution and fluctuations of surface rainfall during the analyzed storms with moderate to high correlation values of 0.5–0.8. The TMPA estimates reported reasonable levels of rainfall detection especially when light rainfall rates are excluded. On a storm scale, the TMPA products are characterized by varying degrees of bias which was mostly within ± 25% and ± 50% for the research and RT products, respectively. Analysis of the error distribution indicated that, on average, the TMPA products tend to overestimate small rain rates and underestimate large rain rates. Compared to the real-time estimates, the research product shows significant improvement in the overall and conditional bias, and in the correlation coefficients, with slight deterioration in the probability of detecting rainfall occurrences. A fair agreement in terms of reproducing the tail of the distribution of rain rates (i.e., probability of surface rainfall exceeding certain thresholds) was observed especially for the RT estimates. Despite the apparent differences with surface rainfall estimates, the results reported in this study highlight the TMPA potential as a valuable resource of high-resolution rainfall information over many areas in the world that lack capabilities for monitoring landfalling tropical storms.     

The vertical transport of air pollutants by convective clouds Part II: Transport of soluble gases and sensitivity tests

A two-dimensional, non-reactive convective cloud transport model is used to simulate in detail the vertical transport and wet scavenging of soluble pollutant gases by a deep thunderstorm system, Simulations show that for gases with not very high solubility, a deep and intense thunderstorm can still rapidly and efficiently transport them from boundary layer (PBL) up to mid and upper troposphere, resulting in a local significant increase of concentration in the upper layer and a reduction in PBL. Dissolution effects decrease both the incloud gas concentration and the upward net fluxes. The higher the solubility is, the more remarkable the decrease is. However, for very low soluble gases (H < 102 M atm-1), the influences are very slight. In addition, the effects of irreversible dissolution and aqueous reactions in drops on the vertical transport of gaseous pollutants are estimated in extreme.     

Period characteristics of Pc1 pulsations observed at Ottawa

IMS data from Ottawa, Canada are analyzed to study the propagation characteristics of Pc1 pulsations. The majority of pulsations observed possessed periods of 1 second and lasted less than an hour. Shorter-period Pc1s are observed during the summer than during the winter. Periods of pulsations are also shorter during the noon hours than in the morning, and shorter during intervals of high magnetic activity. The diurnal variation of period at Ottawa is different from that at high-latitude stations. For Pc1s the calculated ratio of the spacing period to the pulse period at Ottawa is 86, in good agreement with values found for both higher- and lower-latitude stations. An IPDP (intervals of pulsations of diminishing periods) event occurred on April 19, 1977. The analysis supports the view that the energy dispersion of storm time protons, as well as the earthward movement of the instability region due to increasing magnetic activity, are involved in the production of such events. Earth Physics Branch Contribution No. 1087.     

Theoretical investigation of convective instability in inclined and fluid-saturated three-dimensional fault zones

The convective instability of pore-fluid flow in inclined and fluid-saturated three-dimensional fault zones has been theoretically investigated in this paper. Due to the consideration of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone with any values of the inclined angle, it is impossible to use the conventional linear stability analysis method for deriving the critical condition (i.e., the critical Rayleigh number) which can be used to investigate the convective instability of the pore-fluid flow in an inclined three-dimensional fault zone system. To overcome this mathematical difficulty, a combination of the variable separation method and the integration elimination method has been used to derive the characteristic equation, which depends on the Rayleigh number and the inclined angle of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone. Using this characteristic equation, the critical Rayleigh number of the system can be numerically found as a function of the inclined angle of the three-dimensional fault zone. For a vertically oriented three-dimensional fault zone system, the critical Rayleigh number of the system can be explicitly derived from the characteristic equation. Comparison of the resulting critical Rayleigh number of the system with that previously derived in a vertically oriented one has demonstrated that the characteristic equation of the Rayleigh number is correct and useful for investigating the convective instability of pore-fluid flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system. The related numerical results from this investigation have indicated that: (1) the convective pore-fluid flow may take place in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone; (2) if the height of the fault zone is used as the characteristic length of the system, a decrease in the inclined angle of the inclined fault zone stabilizes the three-dimensional fundamental convective flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system; (3) if the thickness of the stratum is used as the characteristic length of the system, a decrease in the inclined angle of the inclined fault zone destabilizes the three-dimensional fundamental convective flow in the inclined three-dimensional fault zone system; and that (4) the shape of the inclined three-dimensional fault zone may affect the convective instability of pore-fluid flow in the system.     

中国关于积云参数化方案的应用

文中简要评述并比较了４类积云参数化方案,着重总结了各种积云参数化方案在中国的应用,最后结合中国特点讨论了积云参数化方案在应用中存在的一些问题和改进途径。     

The sensitivity of numerical simulation of the east asian monsoon to different cumulus parameterization schemes

In this paper, a 5-level spectral AGCM is used to examine the sensitivity of simulated East Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall to cumulus parameterization schemes. From the simulated results of East Asian monsoon circulations and rainfalls during the summers of 1987 and 1995, it is shown that the Kuo’s convective parameterization scheme is more suitable for the numerical simulation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation. This may be due to that the cumulus in the rainfall system is not strong in the East Asian monsoon region. This paper is supported by the National Key Progranmme “96-908”.     

增厚大陆岩石层热边界层对流剥离的数值模拟

用数值模拟方法模拟了增厚大陆岩石层热边界层被对流地幔剥离并为软流层物质替代的动力学过程．结果表明,在初始温度分层分布、侧向均匀但存在微小热扰动的流场中,80km厚的增厚岩石层热边界层约需60Ma才能被完全剥离,剥离的速率微弱地依赖扰动的强度;在已建立好的流场中,同样厚度的增厚热边界层只需约10Ma就可被剥离．模拟结果暗示青藏高原地壳及岩石层在岩石层增厚和剥离以前就很热,其下伏地馒中可能已存在建立好的上地幔小尺度对流系统,而该尺度的对流系统很可能是由特提斯海洋岩石圈俯冲和消减诱发的     

Longitudinal (UT) effect in the onset of auroral disturbances over two solar cycles as deduced from the AE-index

Statistical study on the universal time variations in the mean hourly auroral electrojet index (AE-index) has been undertaken for a 21 y period over two solar cycles (1957–1968 and 1978–1986). The analysis, applied to isolated auroral substorm onsets (inferred from rapid variations in the AE-index) and to the bulk of the AE data, indicates that the maximum in auroral activity is largely confined to 09–18 UT, with a distinct minimum at 03–06 UT. The diurnal effect was clearly present throughout all seasons in the first cycle but was mainly limited to northern winter in the second cycle. Severe storms (AE > 1000 nT) tended to occur between 9–18 UT irrespective of the seasons whereas all larger magnetic disturbances (AE > 500 nT) tended to occur in this time interval mostly in winter. On the whole the diurnal trend was strong in winter, intermediate at equinox and weak in summer. The implication of this study is that Eastern Siberia, Japan and Australia are mostly at night, during the period of maximum auroral activity whereas Europe and Eastern America are then mostly at daytime. The minimum of auroral activity coincides with near-midnight conditions in Eastern America. It appears that the diurnal UT distribution in the AE-index reflects a diurnal change between interplanetary magnetic field orientation and the Earths magnetic dipole inclination.     

9608台风内区云系结构演变与路径变化

本文利用逐时数字化卫星云图，详细分析了９６０８（ＨＥＲＢ）台风在近海区的路经变化趋势与台风内区云系结构演变的相互关系。结果表明：台风云人区强对流云团的非对称发展，使台风内力发生变化，是导致台风路径两次打转和波浪式前进的主要原因。