北太平洋海温异常对我国降水影响的数值试验

利用全球大气环流模式 (OSU- AGCM) ,作中纬度北太平洋热源异常强迫的数值试验 ,分析中纬度北太平洋海温异常对降水的影响。结果表明 ,中纬度北太平洋大范围海温降低 ,将造成东北地区季内降水偏多 ,而我国 40°N以南大部分地区降水偏少 ;同时 ,北太平洋中低纬度地区降水将发生显著的变化。通过分析海温异常所造成的大气物理量场的变化 ,就海温异常对降水的影响机制进行了探讨 ,得出一些有益的结果。     

聊城气候变化特征及其对农业生产的影响

对聊城市４２年来的气候资料进行分析,找出主要家业气候学因子的变化规律和特征,论证了气候变化对聊城市农业生产的影响。     

西北地区降水对陆面特征敏感性的数值试验

本文是一个用大气环境模式研究中国西北地区陆面特征改变之后影响其降水的数值试验，模式中假定西北地区的植被完全被裸陆代替，对６、７、８月进行数值积分，以便检查夏季大气环流对陆面特征的响应，数值试验的结论是：陆面反照率升高后，与之相伴随的是降水率下降，并且大气的下沉运动控制了该地区。     

中国近46年来冬半年日降水变化特征分析

中国总体冬半年降水总量、日降水强度以及强降水日数都有不同程度的增加趋势。西北地区的变化相对显著,其平均降水量、降水日数及日降水强度都呈增加趋势,特别是20世纪80年代后期发生跃变。华北和中部地区降水总量趋于减少。南方3区多为增加趋势,其中东南和华南与冬季风及欧亚遥相关型有显著的负相关关系,而西南地区日降水参数则与温度和北极涛动指数显著相关。东北地区降水指标没有明显的一致趋势。     

Characteristics of ionic components in precipitation in Kitakyushu City,Japan

Precipitation samples were collected by filtrating bulk sampler in Kitakyushu City, Japan, from January 1988 to December 1990. Volume weighted annual mean of pH was 4.93, but the pH distribution indicated that most probable value lay in the range pH 6.0–6.4. Volume weighted annual mean concentrations of major ionic components were as follows; SO ₄ ^2– : 84.2, NO ₃ ^– : 28.1, Cl^–: 86.3, NH ₄ ⁺ : 45.5, Ca²⁺: 63.3, Mg²⁺: 27.0, K⁺: 3.4, Na⁺: 69.0 µ eq l^–1. The highest concentrations of these ionic components were observed in winter and the lowest occurred in the rainy season. The ratio of ex-SO ₄ ^2– /NO ₃ ^– exhibited the lowest ratio in summer, and the highest ratio in winter. Good correlations were obtained between Cl^– and Na⁺, ex-SO ₄ ²⁺ and ex-Ca²⁺, NO ₃ ^– and ex-Ca²⁺, and NH ₄ ⁺ and ex-SO ₄ ^2– , respectively. However, no correlation between Cl^– and Na⁺ with Ca²⁺ was observed. The relationship of H⁺ with (ex-SO ₄ ^2– + NO ₃ ^– ) - (ex-Ca²⁺ + NH ₄ ⁺ ) indicated positive correlation.     

The Dynamical Influence of Land－Sea Contrast and Sea Surface Temperature on Intraseasonal Oscillation in Tropical Atmosphere

An equatorial β-plane model which includes realistic non-uniform land-sea contrast and the underlying surface temperature distribution is used to simulate the 30-60 day oscillation (LFO) processes in tropical atmosphere, with emphasis on its longitude-dependent evolution and convective seesaw between Indian and the western Pacific oceans.The model simulated the twice-amplification of the disturbances over Indian and the western Pacific oceans while they are travelling eastward. It reproduced the dipole structure caused by the out-of-phase oscillation of the active centres in these two areas and the periodical transition between the phases of LFO. It is suggested that the convective seesaw is the result of interaction of the internal dynamics of tropical atmosphere with the zonally non-uniform thermal forcing from underlying surface. The convective activities are suppressed over Indonesia mari-time continents whilst they are favoured over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific warm waters, so there formed two active oscillation centres. The feedback of convection with large-scale flow slows down the propagation of disturb-ances when they are intensifying over these two areas, therefore they manifest a kind of quasi-stationary component to favor the ‘dipole’ structure. Whereas the disturbances weaken and speed up over the eastern Pacific cold water re-gion due to the interaction of sensible heating and evaporation with perturbational wind. Therefore the two major centers just show out-of-phase oscillation during onecycle around the latitudinal beltBy introducing the SST anomalies in El Ni?o and La Ni?a years into the surface temperature, we also show that they have significant influence on LFO processes. In an anomalously warm year, the LFO disturbances dissipate more slowly over the central-eastern Pacific region and can travel farther eastward; whilst in an anomalously cold year, the opposite is true.     

定西防雹增雨试验区对流云活动特征分析

用雷达气候学方法，对定西防雹增雨试验区５—９月对流云的地域、日际、强度和传播等特征进行统计分析，得出一些有意义的结论。     

区域极端降水事件阈值计算方法比较分析

根据南京站1951—2010年逐日降水资料,采用2种传统的百分位法以及3种正态变换方法,探讨了确定区域极端降水事件阈值的最佳方法。结果表明,由于降水量的实际概率分布是一种明显的偏态分布,而传统的百分位法是在假设降水量遵从均匀分布条件下进行的,计算结果的稳定性较差。正态变换的3种方法是在降水量实际概率分布下采用百分位法计算阈值的,结果稳定性较好。其中以方法4效果最佳。为消除气候变化的影响,可以将研究时段按降水量变化的不同趋势分为几个气候阶段分别计算阈值。或者采用滑动气候阶段处理整个研究时段,并以各个滑动气候阶段阈值的平均值作为整个研究时段的阈值。     

Simulation and Projection of Changes in Rainy Season Precipitation over China Using the WRF Model

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-2000, and to investigate potential future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981-2000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981-2000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041-2060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century.