南海北部ODP 1144站中更新世气候转型期有孔虫稳定同位素古气候意义

中更新世气候转型期是第四纪古气候研究的一个特殊时期。利用大洋钻探ODP 184航次在南海北部钻取的1144站时间分辨率高达约290年的沉积物样品，开展中更新世气候转型期古气候变化的研究。在中更新世距今80~100万年前，浮游和底栖有孔虫壳体的稳定氧碳同位素变化揭示出，中更新世气候转型中心，即中更新世革命0.9 Ma左右，南海北部表层海水温度的降低和降水量的增加指示东亚冬、夏季风增强。以中更新世革命为界，水体垂向结构上温跃层和营养跃层的深度从之前的间冰期较浅转变为之后的间冰期较深，底层水与表层水的垂直温度梯度从冰期时较大转变为冰期时较小。轨道尺度上，冰消期时南海北部的表层水、次表层水和底层水的变化几乎是同时发生的，不存在超前或滞后的相位差。千年尺度上，有孔虫的氧碳同位素变化都呈现出非常明显的约0.8 ka和约1.4 ka的气候波动周期。氧同位素0.8 ka滤波显示出：在中更新世气候转型期，较强的信号主要出现在间冰期，有时也出现在冰期，与晚第四纪千年尺度气候波动主要出现在冰期不同，说明中更新世的气候转型不仅表现在轨道尺度的气候周期变化上，同时也体现在千年尺度气候波动的特征变化中。      

The 1.5–5-day eastward waves in the upper stratosphere–mesosphere as observed by the Esrange meteor radar and the SABER instrument

Data of neutral meridional wind obtained by the meteor radar at Esrange and data of temperature and pressure measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) spacecraft were studied with respect to a day-to-day atmospheric variability with periods ranging from 1.5 to 5 days. The detailed analysis was carried out for February 2004. Perturbations of the atmospheric parameters at the examined periods appeared mainly as eastward-propagating waves of zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2. We suggested that these waves excited by the jet instability on both flanks of the polar-night jet in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere interact nonlinearly with each other, and this interaction generates secondary waves. The radar observed both primary and secondary waves at mesospheric heights. The data analysis supports this suggestion. Under conditions of weaker instability observed in February 2003 the perturbations of atmospheric parameters of periods ranging from 1.5 to 5 days had smaller amplitudes at heights of the mesosphere than those in February 2004. It was found that the Eliassen-Palm fluxes calculated for the waves generated by the jet instability were mainly downward directed. This result suggests a possible dynamical influence of the mesospheric layers on the lower atmospheric levels.     

Stability and accuracy analysis of outer loop dynamics in real‐time pseudodynamic testing of SDOF systems

Real‐time pseudodynamic (PSD) testing is an experimental technique for evaluating the dynamic behaviour of a complex structure. During the test, when the targeted command displacements are not achieved by the test structure, or a delay in the measured restoring forces from the test structure exists, the reliability of the testing method is impaired. The stability and accuracy of real‐time PSD testing in the presence of amplitude error and a time delay in the restoring force is presented. Systems consisting of an elastic single degree of freedom (SDOF) structure with load‐rate independent and dependent restoring forces are considered. Bode plots are used to assess the effects of amplitude error and a time delay on the steady‐state accuracy of the system. A method called the pseudodelay technique is used to derive the exact solution to the delay differential equation for the critical time delay that causes instability of the system. The solution is expressed in terms of the test structure parameters (mass, damping, stiffness). An error in the restoring force amplitude is shown to degrade the accuracy of a real‐time PSD test but not destabilize the system, while a time delay can lead to instability. Example calculations are performed for determining the critical time delay, and numerical simulations with both a constant delay and variable delay in the restoring force are shown to agree well with the stability limit for the system based on the critical time delay solution. The simulation models are also used to investigate the effects of a time delay in the PSD test of an inelastic SDOF system. The effect of energy dissipation in an inelastic structure increases the limit for the critical time delay, due to the energy removed from the system by the energy dissipation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大气中对称不稳定机制的动力学分析及暴雨的分析与预报

用气块法从力学角度对对称不稳定机制及在对称不稳定条件下产生的环流进行分析，更全面地定义了对称不稳定及它的产生机制和中尺度环流形成的过程。对暴雨个例诊断分析表明，有些强降水区在降水前和降水过程中存在着不对称不稳定，说明对称不稳定条件下形成的环流对暴雨有引发和加强作用。在以往研究原基础上，总结出了利用常规观测资料分析对称不是否存在，及其能量大小的方法，用它来预报是否降水及降水的强度，从而提高降水预报准确率。     

WAVE-CISK对称不稳定谱点分布的半圆定理

采用滞弹性近似研究了WAVE-CISK下对称性扰动的谱点分布,得到了WAVE-CISK下对称不稳定扰动谱点分布的半圆定理,用其可估计该对称不稳定增长率的上界.发现存在WAVE-CISK时加热反馈和层结参数对该不稳定的增长率均有重要影响.WAVE-CISK加热反馈越强、基流的垂直切变越大,扰动的垂直结构越简单则该不稳定增长率的上界就越大.存在WAVE-CISK时滞弹性近似下的对称不稳定发生的条件也较Boussinesq近似下的更苛刻.     

青岛气旋类暴雨预报方法

使用天气动力学和统计学相结合的方法，以地面影响系统为依据、700hPa西南急流为条件对1983－1999年6－8月青岛地区40次暴雨进行了分型，划分为气旋、台风和冷锋三类。以气旋类暴雨为例，根据预报经验，选取相应的预报因子，建立0、1权重回归方程，用以预报青岛地区6－8月未来24小时的暴雨。气旋类方程准确率为78.0%。用此方法对2000年6－8月进行试报，效果较满意。     

An Analysis Of Secondary Circulations And Their Effects Caused By Small-Scale Surface Inhomogeneities Using Large-Eddy Simulation

A parallelized large-eddy simulation model has been used to investigate the effects of two-dimensional, discontinuous, small-scale surface heterogeneities on the turbulence structure of the convective boundary layer.Heterogeneities had a typical size of about the boundary-layer heightz_i. They were produced by a surface sensible heat flux pattern ofchessboard-type and of strong amplitude as typical, e.g., for the marginalice zone. The major objectives of this study were to determinethe effects of such strong amplitude heat flux variations and to specify theinfluence of different speeds and directions of the background wind.Special emphasis has been given to investigate the secondary circulations induced by the heterogeneities by means of three-dimensional phase averages.Compared with earlier studies of continuous inhomogeneities, the same sizeddiscontinuous inhomogeneities in this study show similar but stronger effects.Significant changes compared with uniform surface heating are only observedwhen the scale of the inhomogeneities is increased to z_i. Especially the vertical energy transport is much more vigorous and even the mean emperature profile shows a positive lapse rate within the whole mixed layer. However, the effects are not directly caused by the different shape of the inhomogeneities but can mainly be attributed to the large amplitude of the imposed heat flux,as it is typical for the partially ice covered sea during cold air outbreaks.The structure of the secondary flow is found to be very sensitive to the wavelength and shape of the inhomogeneities as well as to the heatflux amplitude, wind speed and wind direction. The main controlling parameter is the near-surface temperature distribution and the related horizontal pressure gradient perpendicular to the main flow direction. The secondary flow varies from a direct circulation with updraughts mainly above the centre of the heated regions to a more indirect circulation with updraughts beneath the centre and downdraughts above it. For background winds larger than 2.5 m s^–1 a roll-like circulation pattern is observed.From previous findings it has often been stated that moderate backgroundwinds of 5 m s^–1 eliminate all impacts of surface inhomogeneitiesthat could potentially be produced in realistic landscapes. However, this studyshows that the effects caused by increasing the wind speed stronglydepend on the wind direction relative to the orientation of theinhomogeneities. Secondary circulations remain strong, even for abackground wind of 7.5 m s^–1, when the wind direction is orientatedalong one of the two diagonals of the chessboard pattern. On the otherhand, the effects of inhomogeneities are considerably reduced, even undera modest background wind of 2.5 m s^–1, if the wind direction isturned by 45°. Mechanisms for the different flow regimesare discussed.     

对流性强风暴系统的螺旋度动力学研究

利用风暴尺度的数值模式ＡＲＰＳ成功地模拟了１９７７年５月２０日在美国Ｏｋｌａｈｏｍａ州Ｄｅｌ Ｃｉｔｙ的一次强对流风暴过程。其模拟结果与实际的观测非常接近，模式积分 ４０分钟，初始对流单体发生了分裂，产生了新的对流单体。原有对流单体在原地维持成熟的结构，表现出较强的稳定性，而分裂出的新单体在移动过程中，逐渐向成熟位相发展，并且又分裂出新的单体。利用模拟结果，着重讨论了风暴发展过程中螺旋度和超螺旋度的空间结构和时间演变特征，以及在强风暴系统的对流发展过程中的动力学作用。初始环境场的螺旋性结构有利于风暴的发展。在风暴发展阶段，低螺旋度有利于大尺度向对流尺度的能量串级，而在风暴成熟阶段，高螺旋度则有利于对流单体的能量维持，从而形成长生命周期的对流系统。在风暴的发展过程中，风暴流场结构具有向Ｂｅｌｔｒａｍｉ流结构的调整趋势，螺旋度向高值发展。超螺旋度在流体粘性作用的影响下，可反映出螺旋度密度空间积分的时间变化趋势，负的超螺旋度可使螺旋度增加。在对流风暴发展阶段，超螺旋度为负值，对流单体的结构螺旋性增强、螺旋度的增大，在风暴到达成熟阶段后，超螺旋度转为正值。因此，超螺旋度可用来标志对流风暴系统的成熟程度。     

鄂西北对流云及其人工催化的三维数值模拟个例研究

该文把三维对流云模式应用于湖北省西北部地区的对流云降水研究和人工增雨试验设计，并和张家口冰雹云个例的模拟进行了比较。模拟结果表明该地区给定季节的对流云主要特征有云底温度（约26℃)。云中上升气流速度中等（最大约18m/s)，初始回波在较暖区1～-2.5℃)形成，云的回波顶高约13km。前期的暖支降水对地面雨量贡献很大。播云的数值模拟结果显示了初始回波出现后约10min回波项高到达-22℃处时，在温度为-2～-6℃层的支的中心部位引进5×105～107个/kg碘化银冰核，使地面降雨只有身长弱增加。湖北西北部对流云中过冷云水偏少，最大仅5g/kg和3.8g/kg,面且过冷云水大值区温度偏高（-2.5℃).催化后云中最大上升气流和地面格点最大雨量值变化不大，有时减少，后期降雨量增加，下风方雨量增加，分布更加均匀，但总雨量增加不多。     

对流云降水过程中地形作用的数值模拟

该文利用地形追随坐标三维云模式，对湖北的一次对流降水过程进行了平坦地面和理想斜坡地形的模拟试验。结果发现平坦地面模拟的回波强度、最大降水强度和累积降水都与实况有相当的差距。理想地形的对流过程虽然不能模拟出对流群中多单体的生消过程，但最大降水强度和累积降水都比平坦地面的大，更接近实测结果。模拟试验表明，在地形坡度较大时，会产生较强的上升气流，从而使系统对流发展旺盛，产生较大的降水和较强的回波。所以在模拟山区和丘陵地带的对流系统时，采用地形坐标并考虑地形将会改善模式的模拟结果。