LASG/IAP和BCC大气环流模式模拟的云辐射强迫之比较

通过与ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project)逐月辐射资料的比较,本文从气候态和对ENSO响应的角度,评估了国内的三个大气环流模式BCC AGCM、IAP GAMIL和IAP SAMIL对云辐射强迫的模拟能力,讨论了影响模拟结果不确定性的因素.分...     

Analytical solution to 1D coupled water infiltration and deformation in unsaturated soils

An analytical solution to 1D coupled water infiltration and deformation is derived using a Fourier integral transform. Exponential functional forms are used to represent the hydraulic conductivity–pore‐water pressure relationship and the soil‐water characteristic curve. Fredlund's incremental‐linear constitutive model for unsaturated soils is adopted. The analytical solution considers arbitrary initial pore‐water pressure distributions and flux and pressure boundary conditions. The corresponding analytical solutions to coupled steady‐state problems are also obtained. The analytical solutions demonstrate that the coupling of seepage and deformation plays an important role in water infiltration in unsaturated soils. In the early stages of infiltration, the difference between uncoupled and coupled conditions becomes marked over time, and in late stages, the difference caused by the coupling effects diminishes toward the steady state. The difference between the uncoupled and coupled conditions increases with decreasing desaturation coefficient (α). Pore‐water pressure or deformation changes caused by the coupling effects are mainly controlled by the degree of soil volume change due to a change in soil suction (H). The smaller the absolute value of H, the greater the effect of coupling on the infiltration and deformation. The ratio of rainfall intensity to saturated permeability (q/k_s) also has a strong influence on the coupled seepage and deformation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PARASOL/POLDER3卫星数据的海洋上空云检测

在卫星海洋遥感中,云作为海气耦合系统最重要的调节器之一,其检测结果对海洋上空云微物理特性的反演精度有较大影响。因此,快速而准确识别海洋上空的云像元是卫星遥感数据处理过程中首要解决的关键问题。以PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar)卫星搭载的POLDER3载荷遥感数据为研究对象,提出一种改进的海洋上空云检测方法。首先剔除海洋耀光;接着利用有云与晴空区近红外反射率差异检验识别有云像元,并利用偏振反射率检验进一步识别低反射率的云像元;然后利用近红外与可见光反射率比值检验识别晴空像元;最后建立多角度云检测结果空间融合规则,重新标记有云、晴空和未定像元。以印度洋海区为例进行实验分析,将云检测结果与Buriez方法进行对比,发现检测精度基本相当,而有云像元的识别速度却平均提高约3倍。结果表明:该方法能有效的检测出海洋上空的云像元,满足业务化数据处理的高精度及时效性要求,为后续云微物理特性反演提供可靠的数据源。     

Influence of thawed soil depth on rainfall erosion of frozen bare meadow soil in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has a vast area of approximately 70×10⁴ km² of alpine meadow under the impacts of soil freezing and thawing, thereby inducing intensive water erosion. Quantifying the rainfall erosion process of partially thawed soil provides the basis for model simulation of soil erosion on cold-region hillslopes. In this study, we conducted a laboratory experiment on rainfall-induced erosion of partially thawed soil slope under four slope gradients (5, 10, 15, and 20°), three rainfall intensities (30, 60, and 90 mm h⁻¹), and three thawed soil depths (1, 2, and 10 cm). The results indicated that shallow thawed soil depth aggravated soil erosion of partially thawed soil slopes under low hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity of 30 mm h⁻¹ and slope gradient ≤ 15°), whereas it inhibited erosion under high hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity ≥ 60 mm h⁻¹ or slope gradient > 15°). Soil erosion was controlled by the thawed soil depth and runoff hydrodynamic conditions. When the sediment supply was sufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth had a higher erosion potential and a larger sediment concentration. On the contrary, when the sediment supply was insufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth resulted in lower sediment erosion and a smaller sediment concentration. The hydrodynamic runoff conditions determined whether the sediment supply was sufficient. We propose a model to predict sediment delivery under different slope gradients, rainfall intensities, and thawed soil depths. The model, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.95, accurately predicted the sediment delivery under different conditions, which was helpful for quantification of the complex feedback of sediment delivery to the factors influencing rainfall erosion of partially thawed soil. This study provides valuable insights into the rainfall erosion mechanism of partially thawed soil slopes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and provides a basis for further studies on soil erosion under different hydrodynamic conditions.     

Comparison of the return period for landslide-triggering rainfall events in Japan based on standardization of the rainfall period

The intensity of rainfall events with potential to cause landslides has varying temporal characteristics. In this study, the time at which the 72-h accumulated rainfall reached its maximum was used to standardize the period of rainfall measurement. The proposed standardization of the rainfall period was used in conjunction with the return level of rainfall intensity, obtained from intensity–duration–frequency curves, to investigate rainfall intensity anomalies associated with 10 hazardous rainfall events that triggered numerous landslides at the regional scale in Japan. These landslides included shallow landslides in volcanic and non-volcanic areas, as well as deep-seated landslides. The rainfall events that triggered the shallow landslides were divided into two types: downpours that repeatedly reached close to the 100-year return level within approximately 3–4 h, and accumulated rainfall that reached close to 200–400 mm over longer time intervals but within 72 h. Lithological differences seemed unrelated to the differences between the two types of shallow-landslide-triggering rainfall; however, precipitation >1000 mm was necessary to trigger deep-seated landslides. Although the characteristics of the hyetographs differed markedly among the landslide-triggering rainfall events, all the landslides could have been triggered when the mean rainfall intensity reached the 100-year rainfall level during the standardized period. Thus, the landslide trigger can be evaluated indirectly based on the increase in the return level of the mean rainfall intensity, which could provide a means for estimating the time of landslide occurrence.     

西北地区东部冰雹云的卫星光谱特征和遥感监测模型

根据气象台站的冰雹观测记录,针对冰雹灾害多发的西北地区东部,选取2001—2004年间14次NOAA卫星过境的AVHRR资料,共88个样本数,对冰雹云和其他云的光谱特征进行对比分析。结果表明,雹云的热红外亮度温度的变化基本在245K以下,中红外波段反射率相对较低,基本变化在0.4及以下范围,可见光和近红外波段反射率>0.6。冰雹产生的两个重要条件是高的云光学厚度和大的云粒子有效半径共同发生的区域;西北地区冰雹发生的云顶高度基本在4.5～7km之间。根据雹云的光谱特征,确定雹暴指数及其模型阈值>0.35的冰雹监测方法,多普勒雷达回波和气象站观测结果说明,雹暴指数等多参数结合判别冰雹云效果显著。     

洪水预报模型输入与输出的误差分布及相关性分析

降雨预报信息作为洪水预报模型的输入,该信息的准确性直接影响洪水预报模型输出的准确性.为探究模型输入(降雨预报)误差与输出(洪水预报)误差之间的关系,以英那河流域为例,分析了不同雨量等级下,预报模型的输入误差与输出误差的分布规律,并定性分析了两种误差的相关关系.结果表明,降雨量等级若为无雨及小雨时,两种误差不相关;若为中...     

青藏高原大气水汽收支特征及影响

Based on 1961-2000 NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets, vapor transfer and hydrological budget over the Tibetan Plateau are investigated. The Plateau is a vapor sink all the year round. In summer, vapor is convergent in lower levels (from surface to 500 hPa) and divergent in upper levels (from 400 to 300 hPa), with 450 hPa referred to as level of non-divergence. Two levels have different hydrologic budget signatures: the budget is negative at the upper levels from February to November, i.e., vapor transfers from the upper levels over the plateau; as to the lower, the negative (positive) budget occurs during the winter (summer) half year. Evidence also indicates that Tibetan Plateau is a "vapor transition belt", vapor from the south and the west is transferred from lower to upper levels there in summer, which will affect surrounding regions, including eastern China, especially, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze. Vapor transfer exerts significant influence on precipitation in summertime months. Vapor transferred from the upper layers helps humidify eastern China, with coefficient -0.3 of the upper budget to the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze (MLRY); also, vapor transferred from east side (27.5°-32.5°N) of the upper level has remarkable relationship with precipitation, the coefficient being 0.41. The convergence of the lower level vapor has great effects on the local precipitation over the plateau, with coefficient reaching 0.44, and the vapor passage affects the advance and retreat of the rainbelt. In general, atmospheric hydrologic budget and vapor transfer over the plateau have noticeable effects on precipitation of the target region as well as the ambient areas.     

Mostly Dormant Comets and their Disintegration into Meteoroid Streams: A Review

The history of associating meteor showers with asteroidal-looking objects is long, dating to before the 1983 discovery that 3200 Phaethon moves among the Geminids. Only since the more recent recognition that 2003 EH1 moves among the Quadrantids are we certain that dormant comets are associated with meteoroid streams. Since that time, many orphan streams have found parent bodies among the newly discovered Near Earth Objects. The seven established associations pertain mostly to showers in eccentric or highly inclined orbits. At least 35 other objects are tentatively linked to streams in less inclined orbits that are more difficult to distinguish from those of asteroids. There is mounting evidence that the streams originated from discrete breakup events, rather than long episodes of gradual water vapor outgassing. If all these associations can be confirmed, they represent a significant fraction of all dormant comets that are in near-Earth orbits, suggesting that dormant comets break at least as frequently as the lifetime of the streams. I find that most pertain to NEOs that have not yet fully decoupled from Jupiter. The picture that is emerging is one of rapid disintegration of comets after being captured by Jupiter, and consequently, that objects such as 3200 Phaethon most likely originated from among the most primitive asteroids in the main belt, instead. They too decay mostly by disintegration into comet fragments and meteoroid streams. The disintegration of dormant comets is likely the main source of our meteor showers and the main supply of dust to the zodiacal cloud. Editorial handling: Frans Rietmeijer.     

甘肃岷县永光村滑坡特征及其成因研究

泥流型黄土滑坡发生的条件除一般滑坡具有的条件之外,还应包括特殊的状态因素、触发因素及相应的驱动剪应力条件。通过对甘肃岷县永光村滑坡的现场勘察和实地调查,分析其成因,结果表明：永光村滑坡平面形态虽与泥流类似,但其具有滑坡形成区以及滑坡发生所需要的特殊的地形地貌、岩土体性质以及水文地质条件。永光村滑坡发育于沟道上游的黄土塬地带,临空面较大,滑坡剪出口位置高,具有较高的势能,滑坡体的主要岩土体是马兰黄土,黄土具有大孔隙结构,垂直节理发育,有利于地表水的下渗。下部为新近系泥岩,渗透系数低,为一相对隔水层。长期灌溉导致地下水位较高,黄土层存在软弱夹层,地下水位上升,导致其软化饱和,强度迅速降低,形成潜在滑动面。永光村滑坡亦具有圆弧形的滑坡后壁,滑坡后缘顶部分布有多条拉张裂缝,在前期发生降雨的外部条件下,在岷县“7·22”地震诱发下,发生了低角度、快速和远程的泥流型黄土滑坡,滑体在冲出沟口后形成了扇形堆积区。永光村滑坡是一种特殊的地震引发的泥流型黄土滑坡。目前,泥流型黄土滑坡的研究还处在探索阶段,是作为黄土滑坡分类的一种补充,建议进一步加强对此类灾害发生机理及其稳定性计算方法的深入研究。