日地水文学与灾害预测

研究地球水文变化的日地物理成因和规律的日地水文学（Solar-TerrestrialHydrology），用于水、旱灾害预测多次获得证实.本文从日地水文物理基础、长江淮河22年周期性大洪水、黄河大洪水和太阳活动关系、太阳活动双重衰减期北方大旱、17世纪日地水文异常变化、太阳活动对暴雨洪水中短期影响、台湾海峡两侧大暴雨洪水落区转移、全球最大洪水日地水文研究以及学科发展和应用前景九个方面，对中国近70多年来的主要成果加以回顾和总结.基础科学、高科技和应用紧密结合，促成对国民经济发展直接相关的新学科，是当代科学进步的一个显著标志，这里又是一个例证．     

岩浆活动对油气藏形成条件的影响

结合众多实例，总结了国内外含油地中岩浆活动对油气藏形成的影响。一方面，岩浆活动所携带的高热流可以提高古地温，加速生油岩的演化，亦将使与岩浆岩毗邻的生油岩达到高成熟或过成熟，     

预警地震在地震预测中的意义

对新疆1970-2002年地震资料以不同范围、不同震级进行全时空扫描。结果表明，新疆台网监测能力较好地区绝大多数6级以上地震前地震活动关联图较为清晰。提出了预警地震的概念，认为预警地震在短临预报方面有一定的作用。     

Bathymetric and geochemical investigation of Kawah Ijen Crater Lake, East Java, Indonesia

A bathymetric survey of Kawah Ijen crater lake was conducted by acoustic sounding in 1996 to compare the lake morphology with those measured in 1922, 1925 and 1938, and to calculate the present lake volume. Even though the lake experienced several hydrothermal eruptions, the maximum depth became shallower (182 m) than before (200 m), resulting in a reduced lake volume (3.0×10⁷ m³).Fifty-two major and minor constituents including rare earth elements and polythionates (PT) of the lake waters at various depths were determined by ICP-AES, ICP-MS and HPLC, respectively. These ions except for several volatile elements are taken up by lake fringe through congruent dissolution of pyroclastics of Kawah Ijen volcano. Most ions are homogeneously distributed throughout the lake, although PT showed a considerable vertical variation. Rare earth elements (REE) in the Kawah Ijen water as well as those from other hyper-acidic crater lakes show distribution patterns likely due to the three rock dissolution (preferential, congruent and residual) types, and their logarithmic concentrations linearly depend upon the pH values of the lake waters.Using the PT degradation kinetics data, production rates of PT, injection rates of SO₂ and H₂S into the lake were estimated to be 114, 86 and 30 tons/day, respectively. Also travel time of the spring water at the Banyupahit Riverhead from Kawah Ijen was estimated to be 600–1000 days through the consideration of decreasing rates of PT. Molten sulfur stocks containing Sn, Cu, Bi sulfides and Pb-barite exposed on the inner crater slope were presumed to be extinct molten sulfur pools at the former lake bottom. This was strongly supported by the barite precipitation temperature estimated through the consideration of the temperature dependence of Pb-chlorocomplex formation.     

The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds

Recent analysis of monthly mean cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project uncovered a strong correlation between low cloud and the cosmic ray flux for extensive regions of the Earth. Additional data have been recently released covering the period up to September 2001 with which we have made a new study of the geographical variation of the correlation between low cloud and predicted ionization level from cosmic rays at an altitude of 2 km. When analysed globally, we find that the correlations do not correspond to the latitude variation of cosmic ray flux and they are not field significant. Nonetheless they appear to be marginally field significant over broad latitude and longitude bands with a peak positive correlation at 50 degrees North and South and a tendency to negative correlation at lower latitudes. The correlation is strongest over the North and South Atlantic. Several of these features are consistent with the predictions of the electroscavenging process.We use a simple model to calculate the climatic impact should the correlation be confirmed. We show that, under the most favorable conditions, a reduction in low cloud cover since the late 19th century, combined with the direct forcing by solar irradiance can explain a significant part of the global warming over the past century, but not all. However, this computation assumes that there is no feedback or changes in cloud at other levels.     

Investigation of upper crust anisotropy in Ghaen-Birjand region, east-central Iran

IntroductionWhenpropagatingthroughananisotropicmedium,ashearwavesplitsintotwo(quasi)shearwaveswithdifferentpropagationspeedsandpolarizedorthogonally.Owingtotherecentdevel-opmentofseismicobservationsystem,detectionofshearwavessplittingwithverysmalldelaytimesbetweenfasterandslowershearwavesbecameavailableandprovidedpowerfulapproachfordetectionofcrustalanisotropy.Crampin(1978)emphasizedtheroleofalignedmicrocracksasacauseofcrustalanisotropyandpointedoutthatforverticallyalignedmicrocracksthedirecti…     

科尔沁沙地土地沙漠化的历史与现状

科尔沁沙地是我国自然条件相对较好的一个沙地，有着广阔的治理前景。回顾科尔沁沙地的历史变化，认为科尔沁沙地是一个全球气候变化大趋势下由人类生产活动过度而形成的沙漠化区域，在金代至清代之间由于人为活动强度减弱，曾经发生明显的沙漠化逆转。根据全国沙漠化普查所获得的资料，研究分析了科尔沁沙地土地沙漠化现状及其特点，结合土地沙漠化发生的历史过程，讨论了这一地区沙漠化的治理策略。     

2003年2月14日新疆石河子南5.0和5.4级地震灾害减轻因素的分析

2003年2月14日新疆石河子南发生了5．0和5．4级地震。地震发生在北天山石场东南高山区内，位于亚马特断裂与斜切天山的博罗科努断裂所夹持断块的南缘。地震仅对石河子南山矿区所属的红沟煤矿、小沟煤矿与沙湾县煤矿等50、60年代建造的部分危房造成了轻微的破坏，大部分地区的房屋基本完好。造成地震灾害减轻的主要原因为多条断裂的隔震作用与居民点位于山区较平缓地带、场地条件较好等因素。     

山西大同-阳高地震活动背景

通过对大同盆地历史地震活动及大同盆地历史地震活动与华北地震区、山西地震带强震活动的关系的研究，得出山西大同-阳高1989年6．1级地震活动是这一地区历史地震的延续，是华北北部中强地震活动的重要组成部分，具有广义前震的重要意义，其后对应发生的河北张北6．2级地震。标志着华北地震区的地震活动期已进入尾声。     

黄土区人类活动影响下的 产汇流模拟研究

日益频繁的人类活动改变了流域下垫面条件,对流域产汇流产生很大的影响。本文以黄河中游典型支流岔巴沟为研究区域,提出利用基于DEM的分布式水文模拟技术,探讨流域人类活动过程中的产汇流模拟,避免了经验公式的概化和由此引起的局限。模拟的结果证实了该方法的可行性。采用网格滞蓄的方法可以在子网格上体现人类活动引起的下垫面的变化及其对产汇流的影响,反映各个时期的产汇流条件,对降雨做出合理响应。