全文获取类型
收费全文 | 388篇 |
免费 | 52篇 |
国内免费 | 63篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 12篇 |
大气科学 | 139篇 |
地球物理 | 178篇 |
地质学 | 98篇 |
海洋学 | 42篇 |
天文学 | 4篇 |
综合类 | 9篇 |
自然地理 | 21篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 3篇 |
2022年 | 9篇 |
2021年 | 7篇 |
2020年 | 7篇 |
2019年 | 16篇 |
2018年 | 13篇 |
2017年 | 15篇 |
2016年 | 15篇 |
2015年 | 15篇 |
2014年 | 22篇 |
2013年 | 15篇 |
2012年 | 13篇 |
2011年 | 18篇 |
2010年 | 10篇 |
2009年 | 31篇 |
2008年 | 33篇 |
2007年 | 38篇 |
2006年 | 17篇 |
2005年 | 21篇 |
2004年 | 18篇 |
2003年 | 15篇 |
2002年 | 26篇 |
2001年 | 11篇 |
2000年 | 17篇 |
1999年 | 14篇 |
1998年 | 18篇 |
1997年 | 8篇 |
1996年 | 10篇 |
1995年 | 8篇 |
1994年 | 9篇 |
1993年 | 9篇 |
1992年 | 7篇 |
1991年 | 4篇 |
1990年 | 2篇 |
1989年 | 5篇 |
1988年 | 1篇 |
1987年 | 1篇 |
1985年 | 1篇 |
1984年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有503条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
81.
82.
基于概率加权估计的中国极端气温时空分布模拟试验 总被引:32,自引:0,他引:32
引入一种计算简便、有效性高,并可代替极大似然法的优良参数估计方法--概率加权法(PWM),利用Gumbel分布对中国极端气温时空变化特征作"当前"与"未来"气候的模拟试验.结果表明,这种方法具有较高的拟合优度.利用适应性较强的Weibull分布拟合中国逐日高(低)气温的原始分布,在此基础上,借助于蒙特卡洛随机模拟产生未来平均气候情景下的极端高(低)气温统计概率特征.模拟试验表明,在未来气候条件下,若平均气温升高1.0℃,中国各大区域极端高(低)气温的概率有一定的变动规律可寻. 相似文献
83.
Mapping susceptibility of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides using a probabilistic approach 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
To prepare a landslide susceptibility map is essential to identify hazardous regions, construct appropriate mitigation facilities,
and plan emergency measures for a region prone to landslides triggered by rainfall. The conventional mapping methods require
much information about past landslides records and contributing terrace and rainfall. They also rely heavily on the quantity
and quality of accessible information and subjectively of the map builder. This paper contributes to a systematic and quantitative
assessment of mapping landslide hazards over a region. Geographical Information System is implemented to retrieve relevant
parameters from data layers, including the spatial distribution of transient fluid pressures, which is estimated using the
TRIGRS program. The factor of safety of each pixel in the study region is calculated analytically. Monte Carlo simulation
of random variables is conducted to process the estimation of fluid pressure and factor of safety for multiple times. The
failure probability of each pixel is thus estimated. These procedures of mapping landslide potential are demonstrated in a
case history. The analysis results reveal a positive correlation between landslide probability and accumulated rainfall. This
approach gives simulation results compared to field records. The location and size of actual landslide are well predicted.
An explanation for some of the inconsistencies is also provided to emphasize the importance of site information on the accuracy
of mapping results. 相似文献
84.
85.
Praveen Kumar Peter Guttarp Efi Foufoula-Georgiou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1994,8(3):173-183
We present a statistically robust approach based on probability weighted moments to assess the presence of simple scaling in geophysical processes. The proposed approach is different from current approaches which rely on estimation of high order moments. High order moments of simple scaling processes (distributions) may not have theoretically defined values and consequently, their empirical estimates are highly variable and do not converge with increasing sample size. They are, therefore, not an appropriate tool for inference. On the other hand we show that the probability weighted moments of such processes (distributions) do exist and, hence, their empirical estimates are more robust. These moments, therefore, provide an appropriate tool for inferring the presence of scaling. We illustrate this using simulated Levystable processes and then draw inference on the nature of scaling in fluctuations of a spatial rainfall process. 相似文献
86.
M.J Tucker 《Ocean Engineering》1998,25(6):481-496
The statistics of the horizontal component of the water particle velocity vector under random waves are considered. A spread in the directions of travel of the component wave trains does not affect the rms value of the modulus r but it affects the shape of its probability distribution in such a way that the pr3bability of extreme values is reduced. For small and moderate directional spreads the modulus for a given probability of exceedance is reduced by a factor which tends to Fs as the probability of exceedance tends to zero, where Fs is the spread factor (which is typically 0.9 in temperate storms). However, the convergence on this asymptote is not complete for probabilities of engineering importance, particularly for wide directional spreads. The standard deviation of the probability distribution of the direction of the vector is reduced roughly in inverse proportion to r. The same conclusions apply to particle accelerations. 相似文献
87.
基于DERF2.0的月平均温度概率订正预报 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
国家气候中心第二代月动力延伸模式回算资料的分析表明,二代模式月平均温度预报与观测实况仍然存在较大偏差,模式预报有较大改进空间。本文采用非参数百分位映射法对模式月平均温度预报进行概率订正,该方法基于模式集合平均给出的确定性预报,结合模式回算资料各集合成员计算得到的模式概率密度分布,给出确定性预报在模式概率密度分布中的百分位值,并将百分位值投影到观测资料的概率密度分布中,得到模式预报的概率订正值。对订正前后模式预报的检验评估显示,该订正方案不仅有效降低了模式预报与实况的均方根误差(RMSE),对月平均温度距平分布的预报技巧也有所改善,不同超前时间模式预报的预测技巧评分(PS)和距平相关系数(ACC)均有提升,同时模式预报误差的大小对订正效果无明显影响。从分月的订正预报结果来看,对夏季各月的温度预测技巧的提升整体高于冬季各月。 相似文献
88.
A model for the depth-limited distribution of the highest wave in a sea state is presented. The distribution for the extreme wave height is based on a probability density function (pdf) for depth-limited wave height distribution for individual waves [Méndez, F.J., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. 2004. Transformation model of wave height distribution. Coastal Eng, Vol. 50, 97:115.] and considers the correlation between consecutive waves. The model is validated using field data showing a good representation of the extreme wave heights in the surf zone. Some important statistical wave heights are parameterized obtaining useful expressions that can be used in further calculations. 相似文献
89.
90.
Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252
The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters
of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical
uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic
uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian
approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined
for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located
within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the
range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants
is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and
recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an
updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes
which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The
highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability
is high. 相似文献