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41.
The Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China(1990)was based on the probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis.In compiling the map,the characteristics of inhomogeneity of earthquake distribution both in space and time in China are considered sufficiently,and some necessary modifications in the model of seismic hazard analysis are carried out.Based on the analysis of the seismic activity and seismotectonic environment,26 seismic provinces are divided first as the statistical elements of the seismicity analysis; the seismic potential source areas are then divided in the seismic provinces.The 733 potential source areas with various upper limit magnitudes have been divided in the country.According to the reliable time domain of earthquake data with various magnitude intervals,the b values in magnitude-frequency relationship are calculated in the seismic provinces.According to the analysis of the inhomogeneity of seismicity distribution both in space and time,the annual average occurrence rates of the eart 相似文献
42.
Temporal variations in bedload transport rates that occur at a variety of timescales, even under steady flow conditions, are accepted as an inherent component of the bedload transport process. Rarely, however, has the cause of such variations been explained clearly. We consider three data sets, obtained from laboratory experiments, that refer to measurements of bedload transport made with continuously recording bedload traps. Each data set is characterized by a predominant low-frequency oscillation, on which additional higher-frequency oscillations generally are superimposed. The period of these oscillations, as isolated through the use of spectral analysts, ranged between 0·47 and 168 minutes, and was associated unequivocally with the migration of bedforms such as ripples, dunes, and bars. The extent to which such oscillatory behaviour may be recognized in a data set depends on the duration of sampling and the length of the sampling time, with respect to the period of a given bedform. Several theoretical probability distribution functions have been developed to describe the frequency distributions of (relative) bedload transport rates that are associated with the migration of bedforms (Einstein, 1937b; Hamamori, 1962; Carey and Hubbell, 1986). These distribution functions were derived without reference to a sampling interval. We present a modification of Hamamori's (1962) probability distribution function, generated by Monte Carlo simulation, which permits one to specify the sampling interval, in relation to the length of a bedform. Comparisons between the simulated and observed frequency distributions, that were undertaken on the basis of the data described herein, are good (significant at the 90 per cent confidence level). Finally, the implications that temporal variability, which is associated with the migration of bedforms, have for the accurate determination of bedload transport rates are considered. 相似文献
43.
对流边界层(CBL)中的污染扩散是非高斯型的。本文在下列三个假设下建立了双高斯型几率分布函数(PDF)模式:1.对流边界层任一确定高度铅直速度W的几率分布函数pw由两个高斯分布迭加而成;2.从污染源释放的粒子具有源高的铅直速度几率分布,且其轨迹是线性的;3.粒子在地面的反射为全反射,在混合层高度Zi为全反射或有部分吸收。然后分析了三个高度上铅直速度W的一些统计特征量,比较了由PDF模式计算的横风向积分浓度和Lamb的数值模拟[1-3],Deardorff的水槽模拟[4-6]结果,并用美国CONDORS计划的外场试验资料[7]对PDF模式进行了验证,结果均相当一致。 相似文献
44.
Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252
The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters
of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical
uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic
uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian
approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined
for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located
within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the
range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants
is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and
recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an
updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes
which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The
highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability
is high. 相似文献
45.
46.
通过对非洲、澳大利亚、南美洲彼此之间的大陆架边界线相似的概率分析,指出巧合是不可能的,地球在过去几十亿年间一定发生了大规模的膨胀。 相似文献
47.
本文提出了考虑各潜在震源相互耦合的等效物理模型,系统地建立了通过拟合各潜在震源地震序列来确定不同时间段内活断层形速率的方法,给出了预报各潜在震源未来一定年限内发生震级在不同震级段的概率模型。 相似文献
48.
以东经108°线为界,把中国大陆分为东、西两部,东部取震级M≥6的地震、西部取M≥7的地震为强地震.利用有史以来全部地震资料,针对不同情况和不同时期,系统地研究了相继两次强地震之间的时间间隔,目的在于讨论一次强地震发生之后,下一次强地震何时发生.在所有情况下地震间隔数目都随时间间隔值的增大呈明显的趋势性减小.给出了8种情况下的间隔数目统计和相应的模拟函数,以及间隔值的经验概率和相应的函数模拟概率.由此可估计时间间隔为某个值的概率,也可估计时间间隔处于某个区间的概率.反之,对于给定的概率,可估计时间间隔的值或它所处的区间. 相似文献
49.
50.
In this paper we consider the procedures that, on the basis of an earthquake catalogue, yield the magnitude distribution function F
M
(F
M
generators). In particular, our attention is focused on the F
M
generators that are currently used in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of F
M
in the range of strong earthquakes is of crucial importance. On the other hand, in general, the statistical validation of F
M
in that range is not feasible because of an insufficient number of strong earthquakes in available catalogues.Our investigation is limited to the problem of the comparison between competing F
M
generators. We show that a simple empirical F
M
generator (called the CFP generator) can be more reliable than generators based on mathematical models. The numerical experiments that support this statement regards two test-sites and two mathematical models of magnitude distribution, namely the truncated-exponential and the characteristic-type models.The main conclusion is the suggestion of a test (called the CFP-test) that can be summarized as follows. Let X be a site for which, with current criteria, a specific F
M
X
generator based on a mathematical model has been selected. At this point, following the comparison approach described in the paper, the F
M
X
generator is compared with the empirical CFP generator. It can happen (actually it happens in many of our numerical experiments) that this test indicates the CFP generator as more reliable than the selected F
M
X
generator. 相似文献